"Price Rise, Corruption and the Sri Lankan issue responsible for anti-DMK wave"

 Associate Editor of the Times of India, Shankar Raghuraman comments on the 2011 assembly election results in Tamil Nadu state. He identifies three major factors acting against the DMK, besides acknowledging the presence of a formidable alliance building tactic by the AIADMK led front.

Transcript

Srinivasan Ramani (Newsclick)- Hello and welcome to Newsclick. Belying expectations of a better performance by the DMK led front in Tamil Nadu- according to opinion polls, exit polls and other received punditry. The AIADMK led front managed a thumping victory, garnering more than 200 seats out of 234 in the recently concluded Tamil Nadu assembly elections. We have with us Shankar Raghuraman, Associate Editor of the Times of India, to discuss the results.

Shankar, so it all boiled down to alliance building. The roping in of Vijaykant’s DMDK, actually strengthened the AIADMK alliance, so well that it was strong enough to defeat the DMK.

Shankar Raghuraman (SR) - Well, yes, obviously the arithmetic of the alliance was a very crucial factor. But the arithmetic doesn’t work in a vacuum- there is a context in which that arithmetic works. So, for example, let us assume, hypothetically, that Vijaykant instead of aligning with Jayalalithaa had tried to align with the DMK, I doubt whether he would have been able to transfer as much of his votes to the DMK allegiance as he was able to translate to the AIADMK alliance. That’s where the chemistry of the process comes into play. There was clearly a feeling against the DMK which helped this arithmetic to work.

Newsclick - So this feeling against the DMK was basically because of which factors? Was it nepotism? Was it the general governance in the DMK regime? What was the factor which resulted in the DMK loss?

SR- I would say three factors contributed significantly to the feeling against the DMK led alliance. One was corruption. But you might say corruption cannot become an issue in an election between DMK and AIADMK because the AIADMK itself are not perceived as a very clean party. However the clever thing that Jayalalithaa did was to pitch it as ‘why should only one family in Tamil Nadu garner all the benefits of development?’ So she gave the issue of corruption a very specific focus, on the family. And that, I think, helped to crystallize opinion on the issue of corruption. But more than corruption, I think, there were two other issues that made a very big difference. One was the issue of price rise. Now price rise is an issue which has been agitating people all over the country, but in many states, you might have a state government run by a non-UPA party, while the center is being run by the UPA. So the issue of who is to blame somewhat dissipates the anger against the ruling coalition. There is anger directed at both sides in the battle, on the issue of price rise. In the case of Tamil Nadu, because the UPA was ruling, both at the center and at the state, it could only have been directed against one formation. So I think price rise was an important issue. The third issue was the Sri Lankan issue. Particularly in the coastal areas, I think there was a feeling that the manner in which both the center and state had dealt with the issue of Indian fisherman being held by the Sri Lankans. Coming on close on the heels of what is widely perceived as the massacre of innocent Tamils during the operations against the LTTE in Jaffna. All of that also played a big role.

Newsclick- Having said that, again from received punditry, we heard that the DMK largesse, in the form of its welfare programs when in power, also the issue of cash distribution that they had managed during the elections. It was far more evident in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections but, apparently, from the grassroots you get to know that they have managed to distribute a substantial amount of cash during the 2011 elections itself. So the opinion was that this would somehow manage to stem the tide, but clearly that did not happen.

SR- To be honest, when I went to Tamil Nadu, shortly before the elections and then once again shortly after the elections, everybody I spoke to, when you asked them what is likely to happen, the common answer was, “AIADMK should win, but…” And the ‘but’ was always this issue of cash distribution. I don’t think it is possible to actually buy out an electorate. The issue of largesse from the government is a separate issue. It is undoubtedly true that some of the welfare schemes, for instance, the rural ambulances, the health insurance schemes- these things definitely had a positive impact. They have, I think, helped the DMK to stem the tide somewhat, but cash-for-votes doesn’t work. I don’t think it works. Particularly, it might work in a situation where there is no strong feeling for or against either of the contending parties. In a normal election it is possible that some votes do get swayed by that, but where there is such a strong sentiment against the ruling coalition, I don’t think that it can be stopped by merely giving people cash and saying please vote for us. As far as the welfare schemes are concerned, somewhat like Kerala, in Tamil Nadu both parties have had a reasonably decent track record of welfare schemes.

Newsclick - Lets talk about the Congress’ performance, which must be its worst ever in its electoral history in Tamil Nadu. Was it because it was painted by the same brush as the DMK? Or was it genuinely an anger against the UPA’s performance?

SR- To my mind, there are three major issues, which crystallize the anger against the UPA. One of those is price rise. Clearly the Congress itself is being held accountable for that. The other was the issue of how the Sri Lankan Tamils had been treated, where again, the anger is as much against the center as against the state. The third issue was corruption. Now in corruption, clearly, much of the anger in Tamil Nadu would have been against the DMK. On the other hand, if the Congress wants to believe that it merely got collateral damage- that would be an incorrect reading of the situation, because e you must remember that the 2G scam was only one of several scams. It may be the lrgest but is only one of several scams which have surfaced nationally during this period. You have had the commonwealth games scam; we had the Adarsh scam in Bombay. So the general perception of the UPA, running a very corrupt regime, was very much part of this.

Newsclick - Also, the Congress never played an oppositional role per se as a regional force in Tamil Nadu. So that also resulted in ..

SR-: To be honest, Congress as a party has hard done anything done in Tamil Nadu whether oppositional, it doesn't have a role in running of the government in Tamil Nadu though it is a alliance partner. It doesn't have a meaningful role as a constructive opposition. So really as a party if you are a Tamil Nadu voter, what does the Congress in Tamil Nadu stand for. That is one factor. The other was very poor choice of candidate. Also Tamil Nadu Congress today has no mass leaders of any stature. So all of these factors must have contributed to it's worst ever performance.

Newsclick- The AIADMK now is in a strong wicket in Tamil Nadu. Is the Congress trying to rope AIADMK instead of DMK into supporting the ruling coalition.

SR-  See my feeling would be that that would have been much more likely scenario if the AIADMK with the AIADMK itself not having a majority in the assembly. Because you look at it from the Congress's point of view. Right now, the situation is the DMK has 18 MPs in Loksabha. It has no state government. So the DMK has an ally will completely a loyal ally at this point of time. It has no bargaining position at all Vis a Vis the Congress. Now they were to get rid of the DMK and bring in the AIADMK the problem would be a) the number of MP s come down drastically comes down to half. Instead of 18 it will become 9 b) Jayalalithaa is in a position where her bargaining strength is enormous. Her state government is not dependent on Congress in anyway. And Jayalalithaa does have a track record of being a very fickle ally. So given all those factors I am not so sure that the Congress would like to at this stage will do business with Jayalalithaa. It is possible closer to 2014 Loksabha elections there might be realignment.

Newsclick - Coming back to Tamil Nadu again, the accusations against the DMK are not new in a sense that similar kind of accusations were made against the AIADMK as well. So this alternating of DMK and AIADMK is there a possibility of emerging of third force at all. Why is there no fatigue against either of these two alliances, Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu.

SR- I don't think it is correct to say there is no fatigue with two of them. There is definitely a fatigue and one of the evidences of that fatigue was in 2006 and again in 2009 when DMDK Vijaykant’s parties was completely a fresh player on the scene contested separately from either of the two alliances and got between 8 and10 percent votes in two elections. Now the party which has come into being overnight to garner 10 percent of the vote is telling you something. In a country where because of the first past the post system there is a general belief that you should not waste your vote by giving it to somebody who is not in contention for power. To anybody to get 10 percent of the vote without being in either of the two alliance is an indicatr of the fact that there is a desire for an alternative to these two. However, nobody seems to have the vision or the will power to stay outside the two alliances for some length of time and build upon the strength. Even Vijaykant now has joined the AIADMK alliance. So really that is what I think has been the reason behind the no third front emerging in Tamil Nadu.

Newsclick - The DMDK is now the largest opposition party. So if it plays it's cards properly there is a possibility that it could build on this momentum from the 10 percent vote it has received.

SR- it could. I think, DMDK would be looking slightly looking ahead and looking at the scenario post Karunanidhi. There is a wide spread belief that if and when Karunanidhi passes away there will be a severe factional feud within the DMK led by a fight between the two brothers themselves. Now if that scenario happens then anybody who is waiting in the wings to mop up the disillusioned DMK base stands a good chance. Now in the normal course you would have said Congress might have been in a position to do that. After this showing Congress's chance of playing that role has receded and Vijaykant seems to be in best positioned for that along with the left parties.