Tripura: CPI (M) Gears up for Bypolls, BJP Feels CM Change not a Setback

Kolkata: Ahead of elections for the 60-member Tripura Assembly, which is due in nine months, the state will witness four Assembly by-elections on June 23. The by-elections have their own political import given the recent change of chief ministers effected by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) high command. Dislodging high profile CM Biplab Kumar Deb from the post, the BJP top brass opted for ex-Congressman, professor and dentist Manik Saha, the BJP state unit chief and former Rajya Sabha member.

For now, Saha remains the state BJP chief. He claimed “he shares strong chemistry with Deb, whose sudden removal from the chief minister’s post nine months before the next Assembly elections came as a total surprise “to Deb himself, political circles and the public”, said sources contacted by NewsClick. “He may now be awaiting his next posting, but the party high command cannot bypass him; for he as the then state BJP chief had worked hard for the party’s maiden victory and recognising his role, the top leadership rewarded him with the chief minister’s position,” a source said. Deb also kept a junior partner – Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) – in good humour with ministership.

The four Assembly bye-elections, coming within 40 days after the new chief minister was inducted, pose a serious challenge to Saha. Of the four seats, one fell vacant because of the deaths of Communist Party of India [CPI (M)] veteran and deputy speaker Ramendra Chandra Debnath.

Moreover, three BJP MLAs deserted the party. Two of them – Sudip Roy Barman and Asish Kumar Saha – resigned from the Assembly as well and subsequently joined the Congress. The third member, Asish Das, had crossed over to the Trinamool Congress last October, and he was disqualified by the Speaker. On May 27, Das left the TMC, alleging that its aim was to weaken the Congress and give a mileage to BJP.

The Assembly seats going to bypolls are Jubarajnagar (gen), Agartala (gen), Bordowali (gen), and Surma (SC). The desertions have reduced BJP’s Assembly strength to 33 from 36. The chief minister’s challenge is to take it back to 36. Much may hinge on Deb reciprocating the “strong chemistry that the new chief minister claims he shares with his predecessor”.

CPI (M) state secretary Jitendra Chowdhury has announced the party will contest in all four seats “in all seriousness”. Party veteran Manik Sarkar, who served as chief minister between March 1998 and March 2018, corroborated Chowdhury while speaking to NewsClick. “For us, it is fight as usual – highlighting economically weak people’s existential issues and taking them along in the struggle,” Sarkar said. Congress may field two new entrants – Roy Burman and Asish Saha from Agartala and Bordowali, respectively.

While the results of the bye-polls on June 26 may throw up some pointers for the regular assembly polls due in February 2023, it suffices to say that it is going to be a complex exercise, notwithstanding the state’s small size.

A new outfit to join the fray is Tipraha Indigenous Progressive Alliance (TIPRA), headed by the state’s royal scion Pradyot Kishore Debbarman. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC), which nominated a few defectors in 2018, is aiming to make a mark too; a state committee headed by Subal Bhowmik is in place, and among those assigned with responsibilities are former Congress MP from Assam, Susmita Dev, and West Bengal’s former TMC minister Rajib Banerjee.

Meanwhile, all is not well within IPFT, BJP’s ally. A split appears to have been avoided for now with deft manoeuvring by the octogenarian leader Narendra Chandra Debbarma, who made not only sure his place in the Saha ministry, but also got influential Mevar Jamatia replaced with Prem Kumar Reang. However, the moves of Jamatia, who is now IPFT’s general secretary and who was a minister in the Deb ministry, will be keenly watched in political quarters. He was trying to engineer a merger of IPFT with the royal scion’s TIPRA; this was much to the chagrin of Narendra, who has declared that IPFT will maintain its identity and remain BJP’s ally.

While speaking to NewsClick, Pradyot Kishore did not deny knowledge of Jamatia’s moves but described the recent manoeuvres of the octogenarian leader and Jamatia “as the party’s internal matter”. Tripura Pradesh Congress president Birajit Sinha indicated his party had overcome the demoralisation of 2018 when it had failed to open account. Referring to the floor crossing by Roy Burman and Asish Saha from the BJP to Congress, Sinha told NewsClick:” Wait and watch; the trend will accentuate,”

NewsClick’s talks with a cross-section of politicians suggest that defections are likely to occur on a large scale before the big fight in 2023. Lack of visibility and absence of prominent local faces leave the TMC dependent on party hoppers. It has the resources to take care of them. TMC-hired Kolkata-Agartala-Kolkata chartered flights are common, say informed quarters. On the other hand, one term of rule and intensive groundwork by the swayamsevaks before the 2018 Assembly elections made BJP less dependent on defections. Its greater concern for 2023 will be disgruntled elements after finalising candidates, who will seek accommodation in either the TMC or the Congress, political veterans suggest.

In this respect, the CPI (M) has little to worry about. It has committed leaders and a dedicated workforce engaged in year-round political activity. The CPI (M) has, however, one concern. The West Bengal model of the Left Front exists in Tripura, but the partners – CPI, RSP and Forward Block – have become weak. Under the seat-sharing formula, they get three-four seats to contest on (four when RSP fights in two seats); but even the minuscule number of seats matters in a 60-member House. BJP’s massive turnaround in 2018 was because of the large number of seats it bagged – 36 against 16 of CPI (M). But, the CPI (M) ’s vote share was higher at 44.3%, against BJP’s 41.4%. With RSP’s 0.7% and CPI’s 0.4%), the Left Front’s share was 45% plus. Congress had to be content with 1.9% and TMC got just 0.3%.

Asked whether Deb’s sudden replacement has not created adverse reaction among state BJP workers, general secretary Tinku Roy told NewsClick : “BJP is not a proprietary firm ; the work done by him will be carried forward by his successor. The HQs leadership felt Deb should be given new responsibility and a new leader should head the ministry ; that’s all. BJP leaders, including Deb, will together fight to retain, defend power”, Roy said.

State CPI (M) secretary Chowdhury said BJP has raised expectations of the people sky-high but has failed to deliver. Asked whether his party is confident of regaining power, Chowdhury said “attempt to regain power may imply use of force to occupy the seat of power. We work for people’s welfare through our well-defined programmes and involve all sections of people. We make no distinction between tribals and non-tribals”. On the possibility of tying up with Congress, whose high command in recent years has been receptive to the idea of allying with the Left, he observed : “There is no occasion for us to think on those lines. If at all, the Congress has to tell the electorate why it is for allying with the Left”.

Former CM Sarkar thinks the ideological tilt that the 2018 election is supposed to have brought about in Tripura politics “has not and cannot take roots because of their politics of polarisation instead of people-centric social and economic upliftment”. CPI (M) has assessed the impact of BJP’s eight-year rule at the Centre and four years’ performance in Tripura. For them, it is all about communal-corporate nexus, but the scope is very limited in Tripura, where they are trying for a tribal-non-tribal division, the party said.

About the possibility of a tie-up with the Congress, Sarkar said, “The political line was clarified at the party congress held a few weeks ago; we go by that and more importantly, we are confident of a successful fight on our own strength”.

PCC chief Sinha told NewsClick that the Congress will articulate a new demand – to govern Tripura through 50 development councils with a focused approach to raising the quality of people’s life. The long-practised ministry concept, as enshrined in the Constitution, has not worked in Tripura. A memorandum increasing this demand and listing arguments in support has been submitted to the Governor’s office.

Pradyot Kishore of TIPRA told NewsClick he will consider an alliance with any political organisation that “will support and fight for our demand for a constitutional guarantee for the economic uplift of the people who have been deprived of quality life with dignity for decades. If our condition is not acceptable, we will go it alone for TIPRA’s first fight for presence in the Legislative Assembly, and thereby, making a mark in state politics”.

Advisor to Twipra Students’ Federation (TSF), Upendra Debbarma, when asked about the outfit’s political preferences and issues dear to it, told NewsClick, “See, we are apolitical; but that does not mean we do not take note of issues raised by political parties. We relate it to our charter, and when we find a demand is beneficial for the people and us, we support that. In other situations, we ignore it. Illegal immigration remains a cause for concern." He added, "Tripura shares border with Bangladesh on three sides, and although fencing has covered a fairly substantial distance, the border remains porous, facilitating illegal immigration. We are also firmly opposed to the Citizenship (Amendment) Act 2019.”

As for preference in the context of the 2023 Assembly polls, the TSF leader said the organisation is yet to deliberate on the matter. However, “it would be good if there is unity between IPFT and TIPRA," he added.