State-Wise Pooling Of Anti-BJP Votes is the Only Viable Alternative in 2019

The Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party’s untouchability towards the Congress in the upcoming elections in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan shows that the opposition parties are still woefully divided to put up a serious challenge to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2019.

As most regional outfits in the country took birth and were fed on a steady diet of anti-Congressism, it was easier for BJP to find common ground with parties like the Akali Dali, Shiv Sena, and Telugu Desam Party. As a result, BJP now dominates the political landscape of the country from Arunachal Pradesh to Gujarat and Jammu to Karnataka..

However, BJP’s dominance can easily be challenged by several other regional parties that are unwilling to toe its line. Setting aside the Congress, even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the regional parties bloc commanded almost 50% of the popular vote.

Hence, state-wise pooling of anti-BJP votes seems the only effective and viable alternative to keep BJP away and avoid contradictions among various opposition parties. This view was first articulated by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in an editorial in its mouthpiece, People’s Democracy, on March 21, 2018,  wherein the party had admitted that opposition parties were a divided lot in putting up a serious challenge to Modi.

Taking a leaf from the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh’s Phulpur and Gorakhpur (where the SP and BSP formed a grand alliance), the CPI(M) felt that model could work most effectively in terms of election tactics to defeat the BJP in 2019.

In 2019, if the BJP loses the larger part of the seats in UP, it will be difficult for it to sustain a majority in the Lok Sabha. If the major non-BJP parties unite, then the smaller parties and forces can extend support to them.

This is why the CPI(M), in its editorial, disregarded the forging of a pan-India alliance or front of all opposition parties to take on the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

There are many parties like the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, the CPI(M) in Kerala and Tripura and the Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Punjab, who will not accept to be partners in an alliance with the Congress. And the ones who don’t have any problem being in alliance with Congress, are unwilling to accept Rahul Gandhi as the potential Prime Ministerial candidate.

In this scenario, alliances of different opposition parties will have to be formed state by state with the objective to remove the Modi government so that the opposition does not crumble under the contradictions among the various parties, trh CPI(M) believes.

There are some states like Gujarat, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, and Punjab where the Congress is strong, and there are states where perhaps parties like CPI(M), DMK, Rashtriya Janata Dal and TDP don't even need to enter into alliances. In states like Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and West Bengal, where the Congress is not so strong, it will have to play a secondary role.

So, any successful campaign and coalition-building exercise against the BJP in 2019 or beyond would require a powerful narrative, and sharper strategising than that of the BJP. Both the 1977 and 1989 electoral campaigns led to the defeat of strong incumbents by a rainbow coalition of parties, which was led by charismatic individuals leading focused campaigns. In 1977, the focus was against the Emergency. Most of India’s current political leadership is a product of that struggle.

Since as of now, no opposition party or leader seems to be able to emerge as an acceptable and effective alternative, the electoral tactics in 2019 need to be worked out on the basis of state-wise pooling of anti-BJP votes.

The states which have the possibility to determine the majority of a party in Lok Sabha are Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The history of Indian politics is testimony to the fact that there are no permanent friends and enemies and the following four states validate the point.

Andhra Pradesh

In 2014, the TDP had won 15 seats, YSR Congress got eight and BJP two, in alliance with TDP. The TDP was established by popular cinema actor NT Rama Rao in the early 1980s with the sole purpose of taking on the mighty Congress in Andhra Pradesh. The party’s philosophy and agenda clearly spelt out the anti-Congress rhetoric and the initiative of NTR at the national level was to form a non-Congress front called the United Front.

The alliance between the CPI, Congress, and TDP in Telangana could be a prelude to the three parties joining hands in Andhra Pradesh in 2019. An alliance with the TDP will be a “win-win situation” for Congress as well as Communist Party of India (CPI), especially after their complete decimation in the 2014 Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. The Congress even failed to open its account in the state assembly as well as Lok Sabha.

Bihar

Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD and Congress, the two leading constituents of the Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) in Bihar, are busy forming a “rainbow alliance” taking along all non-National Democratic Alliance political outfits, including Left parties, to ensure the defeat of BJP and its allies in the 2019 general elections.

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections, a Left Front comprising CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML), was formed to fight the NDA and the Mahagathbandan, but performed miserably. As per initial talks between the RJD and Left leaders, Lalu Yadav, who led the Grand Alliance in Bihar, has agreed to give four seats to Left parties. In what could be termed as a major shift in approach, the RJD is ready to give away its traditional constituency of Mohammad Shahabuddin, a criminal turned politician from Siwan, to placate the grievances of the CPI(ML). Most importantly, BJP is still unsure about its Bihar allies -- the Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party and Rashtriya Lok Samta Party as of today.

Karnataka

In the 2014 polls, the BJP had won 17 seats, the Congress nine and the Janata Dal (Secular) two out of Karnataka’s 28 Lok Sabha seats. The projection of Karnataka’s 2018 Assembly results onto Karnataka’s Lok Sabha seats showed that BJP could indeed be reduced to six seats, with the alliance bagging 21 seats.

Karnataka Assembly election data shows that Congress votes are spread across the entire state, whereas both JD(S) and BJP have a base in some pockets. In such a scenario, the JD(S) benefits from Congress’ votes in seats where its main competitor is the BJP. Also, in several Assembly seats, it’s the JD(S) and Congress which are the main competitors. Their alliance would not only sweep Old Mysore, central Karnataka and Hyderabad Karnataka regions, they would make inroads into the strong BJP regions of coastal Karnataka and Bombay Karnataka as well.

Uttar Pradesh

In 2014, BJP won 71 of the 80 seats, while its ally Apna Dal secured two seats. The SP won five seats and two were bagged by Congress. The BSP did not win a single seat though it kept its core vote base intact. 

BSP supremo Mayawati’s decision to contest the Lok Sabha elections along with Akhilesh Yadav’s SP has rattled BJP to the extent that party president Amit Shah in a closed room meeting has admitted that it is impossible for BJP to even touch double digits in terms of Lok Sabha seats.

The drubbing the regional parties received in the 2017 Assembly elections when NDA secured 325 seats, has led SP, BSP, Rashtriya Lok Dal and Congress to explore the possibilities of fighting jointly against the BJP.  Once bitter arch rivals, today’s Bua-Bhatija (aunt-nephew) have the most important role to play in preventing the BJP from reaching the majority mark in Lok Sabha. They tested the waters in the bypolls in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana and found the arithmetic worked in their favour. In 2014, the BSP came second in 34 seats, SP in 31 seats, Congress in six and RLD and AAP in one each. If these statistics are adopted, then SP would contest 36 (five seats that it won + 31 where it came second), BSP 34, Congress eight (2+6) while RLD is likely to demand at least three seats.

In Odisha and West Bengal, the emergence of BJP as the main rival to the ruling party would be tested, while in other big states like Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Chhattisgarh and smaller states like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Goa, it would be a straight contest between BJP and Congress. 

However, any endeavour to stitch up a grand national alliance will give rise to questions of leadership, and regional leaders like Mayawati, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Sharad Pawar will not readily agree to project a Congress candidate as the prime ministerial face of the alliance.

Furthermore, the failure to get on board all possible parties into this alliance will raise questions over Rahul Gandhi’s leadership credentials. Although it is not going to be an easy ride, but the only viable option to put an end to BJP’s ascent is CPI(M)’s suggestion for Congress to enter into state-wise arrangements with regional parties.