Delay in Decadal Census: To Count or Not to Count

India has conducted a synchronous census without interruption since 1881, with the census held every ten years. However, the 2021 Census was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, creating significant uncertainty around its schedule especially given the union government’s failure to be transparent on the delay in conducting the Census. While the government has yet to formally announce official dates, media reports suggest that the delayed 2021 Census will now likely be conducted in 2025. This delay has raised considerable concerns and challenges for the government, making this census more complex than previous ones.

The unprecedented four-year delay presents a first time change in the 150 year old census cycle. Today, in 2024 calibrated demands regarding the census has also emerged. The opposition is pressing for a caste-based census, a demand that has gained traction since the Bihar government under the previous Nitish Kumar-RJD combine had successfully conducted the exercise. a Additionally, the implementation of the 106th Constitutional Amendment Act of 2023 (Women Reservation), which seeks to reserve 33 percent seats for women in Parliament and State legislatures, is directly tied to the availability of updated census data, creating a sense of urgency. Telengana state has also begun conducting a caste based census in November 2024.

Besides, the outcome of the census is critical for the delimitation exercise, which will redraw electoral boundaries based on population data. This overlapping of several issues has compounded the challenges, leaving the government with significant political, social, and administrative hurdles in ensuring that a truly representative and inclusive 2025 Census is conducted/held.

Understanding what the Census is

The Census is usually a complete count of a population (as of a state) that must include social and economic information (occupation, ages and incomes). Census data is a vital base for the conception and formulation of policies of any responsible government. Census data includes data on their age, gender, job, education, and living conditions. The census usually happens every ten years, providing a snapshot of the country’s population at a specific time

In India, the first synchronous census during the pre-independence period was conducted on February 17, 1881, under the leadership of W.C. Plowden, who was the Census Commissioner of India at that time. Following India’s independence, the first post-independence census was conducted in 1951, which was also the seventh in the cumulative series of censuses. Census process for India governed through the Census Act, 1948 and the Census Rules, 1990. The Central Government has power under section 3 to take Census and under Rule 6A can declare the date and duration of Census in which the houselisting operations and population census take place.

Section 4A of the Census Act makes it binding on any local authority to make available staff employed under it as may be directed by written order of the Central government for the purpose of performance of any duties in connection with taking of census.

Following the decadal census cycle of 10 years after Census 2011, the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India, under the Ministry of Home Affairs, announced the houselisting operations for the Census of India 2021 on January 7, 2020. The scheduled dates for the houselisting were from April 1, 2020, to September 30, 2020. The 2021 Census was to include 31 questions, with the first five focused on building particulars, questions 6 and 7 on household details (for census houses used wholly or partly as residences), and questions 8 to 10 related to the head of the household. Questions 9 to 31 pertained to the normal household, with specific items (23, 24, 26, 27, 28, and 29) addressing household assets.

The number of questions canvassed during Population Enumeration in Censuses from 1951 to 2011 is listed below:

However, the scheduled exercise could not be conducted, and the central government postponed the census timeline.

Census data is collected in two phases. The first is the House Listing phase, which gathers information on housing amenities like toilets, electricity, and water supply. The second phase focuses on the household members, capturing details such as the number of individuals, their mother tongue, religion, caste (reserved category), literacy, and disability status. This data helps shape policies for minority groups, disabled individuals, and other socio-economic categories. Given its policy significance, the census questionnaire has undergone minimal changes over the years.

The last Census in India was conducted in two phases in 2011. The first phase, which involved houselisting and housing census, took place from April to September 2010, while the second phase, focused on population enumeration, occurred from February 9 to 28, 2011. The census recorded a total population of 1.21 billion (1210.2 million), a number roughly equivalent to the combined populations of the USA, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Japan. Moreover, the household schedule of Census 2011 contained 29 questions.

Census questionnaire from 1872 to 2011 can be accessed here

National Population Register (NPR)

In 2010, the National Population Register (NPR), a comprehensive biometric database of all “usual residents” in India, was compiled alongside the Census and the Socio-Economic Caste Census (SECC). The NPR was updated in 2015-16, and is currently being revised once more.

The updated NPR questionnaire includes new data, such as information about an individual’s parents’ places of birth and their mother tongue. However, the inclusion of these invasive questions has sparked debate among politicians and activists, who have expressed concerns about their invasive nature and highlighted that such questions are unreasonable and arbitrary, potentially sowing division and mistrust.

In January 2022, Lok Janshakti Party leader and late Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan stated that the government would consider the demand to remove the questions about the date and place of birth of one’s parents in the proposed National Population Register, according to The Hindu. “Even I don’t know the date of birth of my parents, forget about producing documents proving the dates,” he said.

The NPR is widely seen as the first step toward the creation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC). This connection is not only outlined in the Citizenship Rules of 2003, but has also been explicitly acknowledged by the government in Parliament and in the Ministry of Home Affairs’ Annual Report for 2018-19.

The NPR is being created under the provisions of The Citizenship Act, 1955, and The Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules, 2003. The NPR includes details of all ‘usual residents’ of India, regardless of their citizenship status. This means both citizens and non-citizens will be included in the register.

According to Rule 3(4), the Central Government can decide a date by which the Population Register will be prepared. It will collect information such as the name, relationship to the head of the family, parents’ names, marital status, place of birth, nationality, address, occupation, and education of every individual. Rule 5 outlines the responsibility of government officials to assist in the registration process. Additionally, Rule 7 states that the head of each family is responsible for providing accurate details about all family members. In the case of dependents, such as minors or disabled individuals, the head of the family is also responsible for reporting their information. Finally, Rule 16(4) places the supervision of the entire process under the Registrar General of Citizen Registration, with oversight by local and district registrars.

NPR does not have complete legal sanction. NPR is being carried out under Citizenship (Registration of Citizens and Issue of National Identity Cards) Rules, 2003, which is a subordinate legislation. Rules are made by the Executive/Govt and not scrutinised by Parliament

Why is the decadal census important?

The decadal census is a critical tool for assessing progress of citizens, tracking the effectiveness of government schemes, and planning for future development. Conducted by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India under the Ministry of Home Affairs, the census provides essential data on population size, demographic changes, social indicators, and economic conditions. This data is foundational for policy-making, resource allocation, and designing welfare programs.

Additionally, the census plays a critical role in resource allocation that infrastructure and social services are distributed equitably across regions. It also aids in urban and rural planning, allowing authorities to anticipate future population growth and demographic shifts, which is essential for sustainable development. Ultimately, the decadal census is a cornerstone of long-term planning, guiding everything from public health to infrastructure, ensuring a more informed and responsive government.

First digital census this time and self-enumeration portal

In September 2020, Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that the proposed 2021 census would be conducted digitally, with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman allocating a budget of ₹3,786 crore for the initiative. This census would mark the first-ever digital census in India, allowing citizens to self-enumerate by filling out the census form online.

Additionally, on March 11, 2022, the Central Government inserted rule 6D under the Census Rules, 1990, which felicitate the fling of census schedule through self-enumeration for citizens who want to exercise the right to fill the Census form on their own rather than through government enumerators.

The self-enumeration (SE) process enables individuals to check, update, and validate the National Population Register (NPR) records for their households through the SE Portal

However, the government made it clear that the data collected under NPR may be used for various individual and household-oriented welfare schemes of State/Central Government

In 2022, while inaugurating the new office building of the Directorate of Census Operations in Assam at Amingaon in Kamrup, Union Home Minister Amit Shah announced that “the process of a digital census would begin as soon as the COVID-19 outbreak subsided, with the goal of completing it before 2024.” However, as the year draws to a close, it seems unlikely that the digital census will be completed within the promised timeframe.

जनगणना आकड़ो का ऐसा स्त्रोत है जिसके आधार पर केंद्र व राज्य सरकारें अपनी नीतियां बनाती हैं।

जनगणना एक साथ हमें कई सर्वेक्षणों से बचाने का काम करती है।

मोदी सरकार ने तय किया है कि अब जो जनगणना होगी वह ई-जनगणना होगी जिसके आधार पर देश के अगले 25 साल के विकास का खाका तैयार होगा। pic.twitter.com/TyClkoPWow

— Amit Shah (@AmitShah) May 9, 2022

Census cycle, delimitation and concern of Southern states

The 2021 census, a crucial synchronous decadal exercise, was delayed due to the pandemic, disrupting the regular census cycle. Population data derived from the census helps the government assess social and economic trends, allocate resources, and plan for development. Without updated figures, it becomes challenging to effectively design and implement public schemes.

So far, no formal announcement has been made regarding the revised schedule for the census. However, according to reports in Hindustan Times, the work for the 2021 census and the National Population Register (NPR) is likely to begin in early 2025, with the population data expected to be released by 2026. This delay may also impact the census cycle itself, potentially shifting it to a new pattern. Going forward, the decadal cycle could change to 2025-2035, followed by 2035-2045, and so on. Furthermore, the last delimitation exercise, which was due after the 2001 census, has been frozen since 2002 for 25 years.

However, delimitation has been perceived as unfair to Southern states due to their demographic and developmental progress. Historically, Northern states lagged behind Southern states in terms of income and poverty, but since the early 2000s, the Southern states—such as Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu—have made remarkable strides in economic development, education, and healthcare. Their combined GDP surpasses that of 13 Eastern states, and their educational outcomes, including higher graduation rates, demonstrate a more skilled workforce.

Southern states, especially during the Covid-19 pandemic, also showed better public health infrastructure. However, under the current population-based system of delimitation, these states face a potential reduction in parliamentary seats, while more populous Northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar gain. This raise concerns that the quality of governance and civic activism in the South is not adequately represented, highlighting the need for a more equitable approach to electoral representation.

How has NPR been made compulsory for citizens?

While the NPR questions are primarily voluntary, the Central Government has made the updation of the NPR compulsory for all residents of India. This is outlined in an instruction manual released by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner. Initially scheduled for 2020, the NPR updation will now take place alongside the upcoming Census. Enumerators, who have been appointed for the Houselisting and Housing Census, will also conduct the NPR updation, which involves a house-to-house enumeration to update the demographic details of all residents.

In effect, while participation in the NPR itself is voluntary, the process of updating the register has been made compulsory as clubbing with Census. This indirect compulsion means that residents are required to provide updated personal information, even though they are not explicitly mandated to answer every question.

The NPR database was first compiled in 2010 and updated in 2015-16. The current updation will collect additional data, including Aadhaar numbers (on a voluntary basis also pre-filled), mobile numbers, Voter ID, Passport, and Driving License details. New households and residents will also be recorded. While the updation process is mandatory, some states, like West Bengal, Kerala, and Punjab, have chosen not to participate in NPR-related activities, limiting the scope of the exercise in those regions.

Ref. Article: What to do when government officials come to your home? can be accessed here

Answering questions in NPR is not legally binding on an individual. However, 9 & 7 of the rules do require that everyone has to register and that head of family must give answer to NPR questions or else face a fine of Rs. 1000/-.

Providing information for NPR is voluntary, but refusal may lead to being marked a “Doubtful Citizen,” risking disenfranchisement as under Rule 4(4) of the Citizenship Rules, 2003, a lower-level government official can declare an individual a “Doubtful Citizen” if they decline to provide data for the NPR. If the refusal is not widespread, there’s a risk of being marked as “Doubtful Citizen,” potentially affecting one’s citizenship status.

The NPR Instruction Manual 2020 can be accessed here

Question in NPR and privacy aspects

As per Citizens for Justice and Peace (CJP) report, 21 questions that government was to ask under the new NPR 2020 threaten our privacy and may lead to surveillance and most dangerous of all can help target and mark out sections of the population for disenfranchisement from citizenship. The government, by clubbing the two, NPR process with the Census process, the government is being both devious and dishonest. It is likely that state governments will assign the same set of officers to conduct both surveys at the same time.

By merging these two separate processes, the government risks creating confusion and a sense of distrust among the public.

The invasive questions—such as those asking about an individual’s parents’ places of birth and mother tongue—are viewed as potentially discriminatory, especially in the context of the government’s broader plans for a National Register of Citizens (NRC). The NPR data could be used to target specific communities for exclusion from citizenship, leading to disenfranchisement, fear, and confusion among vulnerable groups.

A central issue is the government’s decision to combine the NPR process with the Census, a move that has raised suspicions of hidden motives. By conducting both surveys simultaneously and using the same set of officers, the government is seen by many as attempting to normalize the invasive nature of the NPR questions under the guise of routine data collection. This combination of processes is viewed as not only misleading but also as a strategy to sidestep scrutiny, obscuring the true intent behind the NPR.

Moreover, the relationship between NPR and NRC remains deeply contentious. While the NPR is primarily focused on collecting demographic data, it serves as the first step toward the NRC, which aims to identify illegal immigrants. In such a scenario, the NPR questionnaire, which includes sensitive details about an individual’s family background, could be used to weed out certain populations from citizenship, especially in a political climate where identity and nationality are often weaponized.

The lack of transparency around how this data will be stored, shared, and used further heightens privacy concerns. As citizens’ personal information is collected on a national scale, the potential for misuse looms large. With no clear safeguards in place, the NPR process risks turning into a tool for surveillance, fostering a climate of mistrust and fear. What is presented as an administrative exercise could, in the worst-case scenario, become a means for marginalizing entire communities.

No clarity on caste census

However, the government has yet to provide clarity on the issue of a caste-based census. Reports suggest that the government may include a “caste” field in the houselisting schedule of the upcoming census. Meanwhile, opposition parties are demanding that the central government conduct a nationwide caste census.

It is important to note that the caste census plays a crucial role in determining reservation quotas for various categories on ground of backwardness, as majority view in Indra Sawhney vs. Union of India (1992) opined that “Caste was a dominant factor of primary criterion in determining the backwardness of a class of citizens” and it did not offend Article 16(4). It was held that a caste could become a ‘backward class’ provided that the caste satisfied the test of backwardness and the test of inadequate representation.

This has been a key argument of the opposition in advocating for a nationwide caste census. On August 24, 2024, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressing the “Samvidhan Samman Sammelan” in Prayagraj, stated that 90 percent of the population is excluded from the system, emphasizing that the caste census is not only foundational but also a critical tool for effective policy-making.

Importantly, the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Indra Sawhney vs. Union of India (1992) set a ceiling of 50% on total reservations for Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Accurate caste data from the census is essential for ensuring that the allocation of reservations remains within this limit while also addressing the socio-economic needs of underrepresented groups and distribution of wealth among the marginalized.

However, on June 20, 2024, a Division Bench of the Patna High Court, in the case of Gaurav Kumar v. State of Bihar [C.W. 16760 of 2023], struck down two amendment laws passed by the Bihar government. These were the Bihar Reservation of Vacancies in Posts and Services (for Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and Other Backward Classes) (Amendment) Act, 2023, and the Bihar (In Admission in Educational Institutions) Reservation (Amendment) Act, 2023. The amendments had sought to increase the percentage of reserved seats for Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), Extremely Backward Classes (EBC), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in government jobs and educational institutions from 50% to 65%.

Revanth Reddy-led Congress government in Telangana launched the state’s first caste census on November 6, 2024, the first such exercise since 1951. This exercise involves door-to-door data collection till November 30, 2024. Telangana’s caste census includes 56 questions covering a range of topics, such as health hazards related to caste-based occupations, annual income, access to welfare schemes, and details of movable and immovable property.

The caste census was a key poll promise made by the Congress party ahead of the 2023 Telangana Assembly elections. The promise aimed to extend reservations to marginalized communities in proportion to their population across education, employment, and welfare schemes. Additionally, the party pledged to increase the reservation for Backward Classes (BCs) in local bodies from 23% to 42%, and to implement a 42% BC reservation in government civil construction and maintenance contracts.

Notably, the Census 2021 houselisting schedule, which was notified in January 2020, included 31 questions, excluding the caste-related field.

The Women Reservation Act 2023: how is this tied up with the Census?

In a historic move, the NDA government introduced the 106th Constitutional Amendment Act in 2023 which received assent of President Droupadi Murmu on September 28, 2023, marking a significant step toward increasing women’s representation in Indian politics. This amendment introduced Article 330A and Article 332A, which reserve one-third of the total seats in both the Lok Sabha (the lower house of Parliament) and the Legislative Assemblies of all states for women.

However, the amendment also introduced Article 334A (3). This provision establishes a rotation system for reserved seats, meaning that constituencies reserved for women will change after each subsequent delimitation exercise. Additionally, Article 334A (1), inserted through the 106th Constitutional Amendment Act, delays the implementation of the reservation until after the first census following the amendment, which will provide the necessary data for delimitation. As a result, the reservation will not take effect immediately and will expire after 15 years unless renewed.

On September 20, 2023, Congress leader and MP Rahul Gandhi while addressing Lok Sabha, said that he stands in support of the Women Reservation Bill and this bill can be implemented today by giving 33 percent of seats in the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies to India’s women.. Rahul Gandhi alleged that BJP government is tries to distract the Adani issue and caste census while postponing the Act’s implementation. Congress criticized this move and said that caste census and delimitation were ‘poor excuses’ for the postponement of the women’s quota. Congress said that the Women’s reservation bill is a good thing, but two ‘footnotes’ of census and delimitation have been attached with it.

On September 20, 2023, Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed Parliament, said that the government has ensured the reservation of one-third of seats for women across all categories in the Lok Sabha and State Assemblies. He also responding to opposition concerns about the delay in implementing the women’s quota, said that the Census and Delimitation processes are necessary to determine the constituencies to be reserved for women. The Delimitation Commission, which relies on census data, is the only authority that can make these decisions. Amit Shah also confirmed that the census and delimitation process will begin after the 2024 general elections, pushing the quota’s implementation to 2029, which has been criticized by the opposition parties.

Conclusion

India’s decadal census, a vital tool for social and economic planning, has experienced significant delays, with the 2021 census now rescheduled for 2025. This delay, coupled with political debates surrounding caste-based data and implementation of women’s reservation, has compounded challenges. The postponement impacts the delimitation process, which relies on updated population data to redraw electoral boundaries. Southern states, which have made notable strides in economic and social development, could be disadvantaged if their progress isn’t reflected in the delayed census. Additionally, the controversial update of the National Population Register (NPR) adds further complexity. The government now faces growing pressure to address these uncertainties and ensure fair representation for all regions.