Bihar Assembly: AIMIM’s Decision to Contest 32 Seats, Mostly Held by Grand Alliance, Creates a Stir

Patna: The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen’s (AIMIM) decision to contest 32 Assembly seats in the Bihar elections later this year, has created a flutter, with some seeing the move as a setback to the opposition Grand Alliance and smelling a conspiracy aimed at helping the ruling National Democratic Alliance.

Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is the first party to announce the number of seats it will contest in Bihar. What is fuelling talk of a direct threat to the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led alliance, is the fact that most of the seats for which AIMIM has declared a contest were won by the Grand Alliance in the 2015 Assembly polls.

The Grand Alliance, which comprises the RJD, Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), has nearly two-third sitting MLAs in these 32 seats. Seven MLAs are from RJD, two from the Congress and one CPI (ML). All the MLAs are Muslims.

What has also given rise to speculation that the move is aimed at helping the ruling NDA is the timing of AIMIM’s announcement, which came close on the heels of Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s much-hyped virtual rally in the state, kick-starting the Bharatiya Janata Party’s poll preparations.

There are 22 districts in Bihar which have a sizeable Muslim population. Announcing the decision to contest 32 seats, AIMIM state President, Akhtarul Iman, said in Kishanganj district that all 32 seats had been identified.

In the 2015 Assembly polls, AIMIM had contested six seats in the Seemanchal region but failed to win even one.

However, leaders of the Grand Alliance say they will stand together to oppose religious fundamentalism of any kind.

Senior Congress leader Shakil Ahmad Khan, a former President of the Jawaharlal Nehru University Students' Union, said that if the Alliance, including all democratic, Left and liberal parties, are fighting against Hindu fundamentalists and their Hindutva brand of politics, they will also fight Muslim fundamentalists, including Owaisi’s brand of politics.

“I have been fighting and speaking out against the AIMIM in my meetings. I will continue to expose its attempt to help the BJP ahead of the upcoming polls,” Khan said.

Akhtarul Islam Sahin, the RJD MLA from Samastipur, said AIMIM had no support base in Bihar, and accused the party of contesting polls to help the BJP.

“Our primary fight in the polls is against the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). We are aware of BJP’s old strategy of fielding AIMIM candidates to divide voters and polarise society. But it will not work this time,” he said.

Congress leader and party spokesperson, Sarfaraz Khan, also felt that AIMIM’s decision to contest seats with a high Muslim population would benefit the BJP. “At a time when the entire thrust is to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, the BJP and AIMIM are busy preparing for elections. This exposes the fact that they work hand-in glove,” he alleged.

Ghaleeb Kaleem, a social activist, said what has raised suspicion about AIMIM’s decision is the fact that more than 95% of these 32 seats were won by Opposition parties in 2015. “There is only one seat where BJP won in the last Assembly polls. This shows who the AIMIM is looking to hurt,” he said.

Meanwhile, poll watchers maintain that relations between the BJP and its ally, Janata Dal (United) are not too comfortable, despite

Shah announcing that NDA’s poll campaign in Bihar would be headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. They feel this is part of BJP’s well-planned strategy to project itself as more suitable for the top post in the state.

Several BJP leaders in private said that the ‘Nitish factor’ was not visible any longer. The JD(U) itself is banking heavily on the ‘Modi factor’, as Nitish Kumar had promoted ‘brand Modi’ during the 2019 Lok Sabha polls too.

However, AIMIM state president Iman said there was no plan for alliance with any party. According to him, the decision to contest in Bihar was taken by party chief Owaisi, who is keen on increasing the influence of the party outside Seemanchal region.

AIMIM is upbeat after it gained a toe-hold in the state after defeating BJP in the bypoll from Kishanganj in October last year. AIMIM’s Qamrul Hoda defeated the ruling BJP's Sweety Singh, and pushed the Congress to third, by winning with a margin of over 19,000 votes.

Iman claimed the party had gained ground in the districts of Purnea, Araria and Katihar as well. “We will be a force in the state after the next Assembly polls”, he said, adding that despite losing the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, he got nearly three lakh votes, a sign that the party’s popularity was growing in Kishanganj.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in May, Kishanganj was the only parliamentary seat in Bihar which the Congress won. At the peak of religious polarisation, voters of Muslim-dominated Kishanganj also rejected the AIMIM, despite the fact that Owaisi had campaigned vigorously for Iman.

The seat was won by Congress candidate Mohd. Jawed, who defeated JD-U’s Syed Mahmood Ashraf. Interestingly, this was one seat which also rejected Prime MinisterNarendra Modi's ‘tsunami’, as a BJP leader called it.

Kishanganj is widely seen as a Congress stronghold. The BJP has won the seat only once, when Shahnawaz Hussain was elected in 1999.

In the 2015 Bihar Assembly polls, Muslims had rejected the AIMIM, which had contested six Muslim-dominated seats in the Seemanchal region. It was the AIMIM's first foray into Bihar's electoral politics. So far, Muslims have preferred to back the secular Grand Alliance, led by RJD.

Flood-prone Kishanganj, a part of the Seemanchal region, has some of the worst developmental statistics, not just in Bihar, but the country. It has a per capita annual income of Rs 9,928 (as per figures from the State Economic Survey 2018-19, a literacy rate of 57.04%, with the illiteracy rate among women as high as 84%. Nearly 60% of the population is below the poverty line and the constituency has a high infant mortality rate. The statistics pertaining to education are also dismal, with the drop-out rate after high school as high as 98%.