Zoram People’s Movement to be New Key Factor in Mizoram Polls

Kolkata: As more clarity emerges regarding the next Mizoram Assembly election, which is likely to be held in early December, speculation has risen about whether there would be a ‘dark horse’. It was not the case in 2018 during the last Assembly elections. 

Currently, it appears that the electoral fight would not be easy for the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga.

In 2018, it was an easy win for the MNF with 26 seats in the 40-member Assembly. It dethroned the Congress, which had a two-term, ten-year rule since 2008. 

The speculation about there being a ‘dark horse’ may be attributed to the unexpected, stunning performance of the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) in the March 29 elections for the Lunglei Municipal Council (LMC), Mizoram’s second civic body, the first being in capital Aizawl. 

ZPM bagged all 11 wards, registering a vote share of over 49%. MNF and Congress fought for all the wards, bagging vote shares of 29% plus and 20%, respectively. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was in the fray for nine wards and had to be content with a meagre 0.75% vote share. In a sense, the BJP’s show almost matched its performance in the 2018 Assembly contest in the state, whose Christian population is well over 90%. 

ZPM’s sweep at the LMC polls has given rise to speculation about whether MNF’s anti-incumbency is setting in and whether ZPM will be the ‘dark horse’ in the battle for ministry-making. 

In the evolving situation, political watchers say whether one views it as anti-incumbency or people's desire to see a change, ministry-making in Mizoram since May 3, 1972, warrants a study. Barring around ten-and-a-half years shared by the Mizo Union and Mizoram People's Conference, it has been either the Congress or the MNF. 

Lalthanhawla of Congress was the chief minister for over 21 years, spread over five terms. MNF's Laldenga had an innings of a little over two years. Zoramthanga brought MNF back to power in 1998 and defended the regime in 2003. MNF returned in 2018, and so did Zoramthanga. Therefore, it is natural that an educated, enlightened electorate would like to see a new regime and a new face as CM. 

Also, in tiny states with the prescribed minimum of 40-member Assembly, results of lower-tier democratic institution elections are often taken as indicators for the Assembly poll results. The LMC result has triggered this interpretation, political observers argued.

Thus, sensing an opportunity after romping home at the LMC elections, the ZPM has decided to go the whole hog for the upcoming Assembly battle. Although it is still four months away, the party announced the names of 39 candidates on July 18. "The name of one candidate, who is likely to be a Chakma, will be announced later," ZPM's working president K Sapdanga told NewsClick from Aizawl. 

Currently, the party has six MLAs. It had won eight seats, but one member passed away. Prominent functionary, Lalduhoma had fought from and won two seats. In the bye-election to the surrendered seat, ZPM had lost. That explains its current strength of six. 

Lalduhoma, who is most likely to be ZPM's CM face if the party decides to project one, appeared optimistic about ZPM's prospects. "People are looking for a change; for 37 years the electorate has seen a few parties, in which leadership would not change, dominating Mizoram's political space. Opinions assessed by agencies too have indicated this," Lalduhoma told NewsClick.

MNF general secretary T Liansiama said his party would improve its current strength of 26 and field candidates in all constituencies. There is no question of an alliance – pre or post-poll, he said. "We are part of the National Democratic Alliance and North-East Democratic Alliance, but we are not 'a yes sir' party. We retain our decision-making liberty. We will fight under Zoramthanga's captaincy," Liansiama told NewsClick.

The 2018 elections saw the Congress out of power in Mizoram, and the Northeast became "Congress-mukt." It had to be content with just five seats against over 30 that it had won in 2013. Mizoram had been the last fort of the Congress in the Northeast. But, in the words of the state party president Lalsawta, "We will make a strong comeback bid; we are trying hard to tone up grassroots-level functioning. Candidates will be fielded for all of the 40 seats.” “Youths and women are to be given opportunities," he added while speaking to NewsClick.

BJP state president Vanlalhmuaka told NewsClick, "We are preparing the roadmap, setting up mandal and booth-level committees as asked by New Delhi HQs. We will put up candidates for all of the 40 constituencies and fight on our own. Not only Chakmas/Buddhists, we are also to approach Christians and convince them that they may safely count on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'sabka saath, sabka vikas, aur sabka vishwas' plan.” In 2018, the BJP had put up candidates in most of the seats but could bag only one; the candidate, a Chakma, had given up the Congress jersey to join the saffron camp and won.

Recently, senior BJP functionary R Vanramchhuanga, who was party vice-president, resigned from the post as he felt that “the massive demolition of churches in Manipur was supported by the state and Central authorities.” The state unit chief confirmed his resignation but added Vanramchhuanga remains a primary member.

Asked about a close fight, Lalduhoma said it would be between ZPM and MNF, and Lalsawta saw it between the Congress and ZPM. MNF is optimistic about an outright win. While MNF is intent on pressing ahead with its ongoing pro-people welfare and development programmes, ZPM's priority will be to "establish the rule of law" and accent upon agricultural improvement. The Congress sees corruption eradication and a clean administration as its priority to regain the people's trust. For BJP, Modi's 'vikas concept' is the answer for this tribal state.

The Assembly election will be an occasion for parties, except BJP, to reiterate their strong opposition to the proposed Uniform Civil Code as "preservation of their ethnic, social, cultural, and religious identity holds the highest sanctity".

In this Christian-dominated state, churches "automatically have some role to play" during election time. Manipur is a new factor, and Mizoram has been looking after a fairly large number of refugees from Manipur. Rev C Chawnghmingliana, who heads the Mizoram Christian Leaders Committee, told NewsClick, "We are optimistic the election will be a peaceful, smooth affair. Our appeal is always to that effect. I can't say whether the Manipur issue will be resolved by then, but I can affirm 'Manipur' won't tell on the electoral exercise." 

Lalduhoma affirmed that if ZPM comes to power, the ministry will continue to take care of the refugees. “Any policy change is ruled out. Ours is a hospitable state,” he added.

Meanwhile, both Sapdanga and Lalduhoma confirmed to NewsClick that ZPM would contest Mizoram's lone Lok Sabha seat (ST) in the 2024 general elections.

The writer is a Kolkata-based freelance journalist.