Rising Anger, Cracking Coalition

It would be going too far to say that the BJP led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is collapsing but tide waters are rising and the sand castle is crumbling at the edges. In a high profile divorce, NDA recently lost the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), its only major ally in South India. But that is not all. Some important small players have expressed open disillusionment with the NDA and its dominant party, the BJP. Others have been sulking and displaying their alienation. Put these developments with the string of losses in Lok Sabha by elections and the BJP’s poor showing in Gujarat Assembly elections, the picture of a growing threat starts emerging.  Add the widespread unrest among farmers, relentless joblessness and a faltering economy and you get the full picture of a ruling coalition under siege.

First, have a look at the alliance partners. TDP is a big loss, even though apologists for the BJP are trying to portray it as an opportunity for BJP to expand in Andhra Pradesh. The main reason appears to be the refusal of the central govt. to give ‘special status’ to AP as per the deal struck in 2014 when the state was split into two. Special status essentially means more money from the Centre. TDP needs more money because it wants to do better in a state where growing unemployment and stagnating farmers’ incomes are causing heartburn. Moreover, TDP also sees BJP trying to extend its base in AP by surreptitiously propping up rival parties like YSR Congress and Pawan Kalyan’s Jan Sena Party.

Now have a look at a couple of below-the-radar cracks in NDA. In Kerala, the Bharath Dharma Jan Sena (BDJS) has declared that it will no longer work with the BJP, especially in the upcoming Chengannur by-poll, as the BJP has not given them a Rajya Sabha seat. BJDS is the political wing of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), the socio-cultural organisation of the Ezhava community, which has sizeable population in Kerala. Another small ally of the BJP in Kerala, Janathipathya Rashtreeya Sabha is also sulking. In Kerala’s razor edge electoral balance, these cracks would prove costly for BJP’s ambitions in Kerala.

Far away, in Eastern UP, another small ally Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) representing the OBC community of Rajbhars, has said recently that the BJP is “just focused on temples” and not welfare of  the poor.

“There is a lot of talk but little change on the ground,” Rajbhar told ANI. “The BJP is not following the coalition dharma. I have been expressing my concerns, but these people have gone crazy, intoxicated by having 325 seats [in the Assembly].”

These are small parties, and there is a clear element of bargaining with the senior partner in their complaints, but it is these parties that add up – and in a tight race, they can be the key.

The Shiv Sena, a major and long term ally has declared that it will contest the coming elections independently, having criticized the BJP throughout these past four years. Not so brazen voices of dissent or grievance have been heard from other state level parties like the Akali Dal in Punjab. Other major state parties that have gone along with the BJP without joining the NDA – like the Biju Janata Dal in Odisha have been making angry noises. The PDP in J&K with which BJP is running a coalition govt. in the state is seen increasingly as charting its own path fearing inevitable losses for having allied with the BJP.

Why this crumbling coalition?

The prevailing narrative, propagated by mainstream media, is that this is some kind of professional hazard of having a coalition. You can’t keep everybody happy, it is explained. But there is more to it. The reason these parties are drifting away is that they are sensing the shifting sands, the slipping ground below NDA’s feet. Look at all the symptoms.

The country has been wracked by farmers’ unrest right through the four years of NDA rule. Over a dozen states have seen farmers protests including death by police firing of several protesting farmers in MP and massive protests in Rajasthan and Maharashtra – all three BJP ruled states. More protests are in the offing. Meanwhile, two all-India strikes by industrial workers, and a host of sectoral strikes and protests have shaken the industrial world. In both cases, the govt. has failed to make any commitments or assuage the people. Universities across the country have been roiled by student and teacher protests. Govt. employees, public sector employees from banks and insurance companies have been agitating against govt. policies, as have lakhs of scheme workers (those who work in govt. programs).

Meanwhile, the govt. is rightly seen as having completely failed in creating jobs, reining in corruption and black money, controlling price rise, providing affordable education and healthcare. This, despite the fervent promises made by Modi all through that he would deliver on all these promises.

Certain communities have specifically become more and more alienated from the ruling party because of growing attacks and discrimination, and the impunity with which violent attackers have been shielded by the BJP, and the larger Sangh Parivar. These communities include the minorities and the Dalits and Adivasis.

Some of this discontent is visible in the losses BJP has suffered in various by-polls, and most recently in UP’s recent ones in Gorakhpur and Phulpur, and earlier in Gujarat. It is also sometimes expressed in diverse caste based movements like the patidar agitation in Gujarat or other Jat and Gujar reservation movements.

In short, the betrayal of mandate – and of hope – that marks the BJP-led NDA govt.’s tenure is the reason why political realignment is slowly taking place, expressed through breaking away of the NDA constituents. There will be a heightening of this in the coming months as several big states go for Assembly elections, and the country prepares for the 2019 General Elections.