Punjab: Electoral Prospects of AAP and Congress Seem on Equal Footing

If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Akalis are going to face setbacks due to the breakup of their alliance, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are in a crisis owing to their failure to have an electoral understanding in Punjab as partners in the opposition INDIA bloc. Both are sure of victory in the elections without much needed serious reflection. 

When a journalist asked AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal for reasons for their failure to arrive at an understanding (with Congress), his response was not only immature but also without any understanding of the political reality of Punjab.  He said that since there was no threat of BJP, there was no need for any alliance in the light of the fact that AAP had secured 92 seats in Assembly elections.

It has been consistently observed that the party which performs well in the Assembly elections fails to do so in the Lok Sabha elections. However, it is logically erroneous to assume that AAP will not perform well in the present elections on the basis of the previous experience. At this moment both the parties are campaigning without making any offensive comments against each other, but both are uneasily aware of the fact that their real opponent is their alliance partner at the national level.

It is important to make sense of the reason behind their irreconcilability in Punjab. Punjab had been alternatively ruled by the power elite of two parties (Akali Dal and Congress) largely drawn from the landed elite, who, as per C. Wright Mills’ characterisation of power elite, have psychological similarity and are connected through inter-marriages. Both never bothered about any other threat till the arrival of AAP in 2017. 

Of all the parties in Punjab, Congress is the only party which has the ability to form government in the state without any alliance. Despite a major setback in 2022, it still has a sufficient base among the people to turn the tide in its favour. One may assume that owing to its strength, Congress is confident of winning without an alliance. On the other hand, AAP is riding on the success it had in 2022 and an overwhelming majority. It seems that there is more to their failure to have an electoral alliance than sheer confidence of victory.

The period between 2007 and 2022 is marred by mismanagement and unparalleled corruption creating a serious crisis in Punjab. When Congress leader Rahul Gandhi raised the issue of drug menace in 2012, it was brushed aside by the ruling BJP-Akali alliance. His comment on the drug issue created serious problems for Punjab’s youth, for every young boy was perceived as a drug addict for some time. The previous Congress government under Amarinder Singh was perhaps the worst in terms of its failure to do much in the face of rising corruption and was an indifferent Chief Minister.

The arrival of AAP in a big way was a shock for both Congress and Akali leaders. The shock was so unbearable that their leaders began to make socially unacceptable comments on some new members of the legislative Assembly. A Congress leader, Partap Singh Bajwa, went to the extent of publicly expressing his astonishment by saying: What kind of material has come to the Assembly! He went to say that one of them was repairing cell phones by forgetting that he had defeated the incumbent Chief Minister.

After some months, when AAP’s Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann remarried, some Congress and Akali leaders again made derogatory comments on his personal life. Leaders like Partap Singh Bajwa, Navjot Singh Sidhu and Amrinder Singh Raja Warring continued to make such comments for some time. One could understand the frustration among the hitherto ruling elite, but their failure to reconcile to their defeat led to personal hostilities among them.

Bhagwant Mann, a former comedian, is a formidable rival when it comes to verbal jibes. His rich vocabulary and comprehensive knowledge of Punjabi literature puts him at an advantage in comparison to these leaders. Interestingly, many of them hardly know Punjabi in terms of its literary richness. Still, some of them may fail a Punjabi writing test. Mann brought such small things to the public arena seriously questioning the legitimacy of their Punjabi heritage.

After the formation of the INDIA bloc, in which both Congress and AAP are included, the interpersonal hostility combined with the confidence of winning alone, led to these parties fighting against each other. In the process, both have lost the advantage which the breakup of BJP and the Akalis had offered on a platter.

Knowing well the economic might of BJP, both AAP and the Congress are confident of their victories. BJP has carried out the most intensive and extensive campaign with Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting four places where he delivered speeches. The first was Patiala, from where the incumbent MP and wife of the former Punjab CM, Preneet Kaur is the candidate. The other three seats, namely, Jalandhar, Gurdaspur and Hoshiarpur, have a substantial population of Hindus despite the fact that BJP made all out efforts to recruit Sikh faces in its fold before the elections. In a way, BJP is essentially depending upon the Hindu voters. The last election speech on May 30 by Modi at Hoshiarpur showed how seriously BJP is taking the Punjab state this time.

The Akalis, led by Sukhbir Badal, have also carried out a high- pitched election campaign despite defections from Shiromani Akali Dal. In a way, the people of Punjab have never witnessed such efforts on the part of political parties in the fray. 

The twist in the tale lies in the arrival of the two major leaders of AAP and Congress, namely, Arvind Kejriwal and Rahul Gandhi. After the sixth phase of polling (May 25) was over, Kejriwal concentrated his all efforts on Punjab and travelled across the state. Mann and Kejriwal led the election campaign together as well as separately. Both avoided making any reference to Congress candidates and rarely criticised the party. However, Kejriwal frequently told people in his speeches that other political parties that ruled over Punjab did nothing for the state for the past 70 years. This is a false statement because India’s Green Revolution started in Punjab on the initiative of the Congress government in the Centre during Indira Gandhi’s rule.

The people of Punjab are aware of what previous governments have done for the state. However, both the leaders counted the good work done by the AAP government 2022 onward. AAP is likely to benefit from some of its policies, though they are fully aware that two years’ time is too less to showcase the the AAP government’s achievements.

Rahul Gandhi’s arrival in Punjab had a magical effect on the people wherever he went and spoke. The Congress is going to gain considerably due to his campaign. In general, he is being perceived as a genuine and charismatic leader, an image that had been missing in his earlier visits.

It now seems that Congress and AAP are going to register victories, but owing to their failure to extend the alliance in Punjab, BJP and Akalis may win a few seats. BJP’s attempt to focus on Hindu voters in certain areas, as is evident from the visits to such areas on the part of Modi, may not necessarily prove effective.

The Hoshiarpur constituency has some distinct features in comparison to the rest of Punjab. Hoshiarpur district has the highest literacy rate in Punjab and it has a substantial population of middle class educated people who are engaged in public sector jobs. The population of Dalits is also higher than the state average. The Dalits in Hoshiarpur are more educated than their counterparts in other districts. However, the outcome of elections seems to be in favour of both Congress and AAP. 

The author was a professor of sociology at the Guru Nanak Dev University, Amritsar, and former president of the Indian Sociological Society. The views are personal.