Odisha: BJD-BJP Purported Truce May Dent Naveen Patnaik’s ‘Aura’

Ahead of the upcoming elections – Lok Sabha and Assembly -- alliance politics in Odisha has grown to be a sort of poser. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) are facing several questions still which have no answer. More so, after reports of truce between the two ‘distanced’ old allies.

Pandian Air Dashed to Delhi

A day ago, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik dispatched his two trusted political lieutenants -- V K Pandian, his Man Friday, and Pranab Kishore Das, BJD general secretary, on a chartered flight to New Delhi to hold discussions with the BJP top brass over some ‘complex’ issues.

Complex because any electoral alliance between BJD and the BJP could be a gain and loss for both political parties.

One question that is being raised in political circles is: Why is BJP hankering for an electoral understanding with BJD?

Also, why did BJD seen as ‘succumbing’ to the pressure from the saffron camp for a tacit alliance, regardless of the fact that Patnaik, looking for a record sixth term, can win in the Lok Sabha polls and may even increase his party’s winning margins compared with the 2019 elections?

Some poll watchers would have us believe that BJD is mired in an alleged quagmire of chit fund scams that are still pending in the Enforcement Directorate’s dossiers and the BJP-led Centre could any time unleash Central agencies to trouble the Patnaik regime and upset the regional chieftain.

That is understood to be the basic reason for Patnaik “choosing” the alternative of a friendly relationship with the BJP and supporting the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance, as and when required in the Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Modi is still sticking to his claim of ‘ Abki bar, 400 par’ (winning 400+ Lok Sabha seats) thus strengthening his government’s position.    

 So confusing is the situation in Odisha that both the political parties are talking overtime with Delhi to sort out a seat sharing arrangement that appeases both.

But, as per fresh inputs from Delhi, the seat sharing pact has become problematic as both the parties know it will be a ‘gain some and lose some’ situation.  

The political rumour mill indicates that BJP is demanding 14 out of total 21 Lok Sabha seats thus marginalising BJD from 12 down to eight odd seats.

The Major Bottleneck

But, what must worry BJD further is that the talks in Delhi indicate that BJP, which won 22 Assembly seats in 2019, this time expects BJD to “adjust” so that the saffron party can contest 55 Assembly seats and curtail BJD’s dominance and remain content with about 92 seats.

This still remains the major bone of contention for both parties, as BJD does not want to loosen its foothold in the Assembly. In 2029, the BJD had won 114 Assembly seats, the BJP 22 and the Congress nine and others two.

Sources in BJD say that BJP is not in a mood to compromise over Assembly seat-sharing, which may virtually chain the BJD.

Moreover, Naveen Patnaik, now aged 78 years, does not appear ready to blister through the April solstice to personally go out for campaigning throughout the state. He, perhaps, is banking more on his “aura” as BJD’s major selling point.  

Meanwhile, BJP state president Manmohan Samal, on more than one occasion, has stated that he had “no idea about any alliance” or any pre-poll understanding. Does that mean the BJP may go to the 2024 polls on its own. The cards are yet to be opened fully.

The writer is an independent journalist.