MP Polls: In Close Fight, Coalition of Tribal-Dalit Outfits and 2 INDIA Bloc Parties may Play Spoiler

Bhopal: The alliance of Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) with the regional tribal outfit Gondwana Gantantra Party (GGP) and the presence of two INDIA coalition parties in the election fray could make it tough for either Congress or BJP to get a majority in Madhya Pradesh.

These four parties polled 8.74% votes in the 2018 Assembly polls, preventing both the national parties from securing a clear majority. In the closely contested polls, Congress secured 114 seats, two short of the majority, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 109 seats with a difference of 0.13% vote share.

For the first time, the BSP, a dalit outfit and the GGP have forged an alliance to contest Assembly polls in Madhya Pradesh as well as in Chhattisgarh. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which are part of the opposition INDIA bloc that aims to challenge BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, have also fielded candidates on seats that have incumbent Congress MLAs.

The BSP-GGP coalition has fielded candidates on all 186 seats across the state, while the SP has announced candidates on 70 seats concentrated in Vindhya, Gwalior-Chambal and Bundelkhand regions. On the other hand, the AAP has announced candidates for 66 seats in this election.

Political experts believe that the BSP-GGP alliance’s entry into the poll fray might damage the prospects of Congress’ victory, but the leaders of all four parties deny this eventuality. They argue that their party will get votes from Congress and BJP supporters. It’s not just Congress that will face the brunt.

In the 2018 polls, SP had fielded 52 candidates on the bordering seats of Uttar Pradesh, winning only one and finishing second on six. As many as 45 candidates lost their deposits, but SP got a vote share of 1.30%. After becoming a part of the INDIA bloc, the UP-based party was negotiating with Congress on six seats, and consensus was made on four seats -- Bijawar, Niwadi, Balaghat and Paraswada. However, their names did not make it to the list.

When SP chief Akhilesh Yadav’s statement caused a stir in the media over the ticket distribution, senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh clarified that he had recommended to Kamal Nath on giving four seats to SP. “The SP requested six seats based on their previous performance. We assumed they could get four seats. They’d won Bijawar and ended second in two other races. I’m not sure what happened after that,” he stated.

Party insiders claim that the Congress leadership feared that SP leaders may defect to BJP after the polls. “The last-minute denial led to the heated arguments between the two key INDIA bloc party leaders after SP Chief Akhilesh Yadav issued a strong statement against the Congress,” said Yash Bharti, senior spokesperson of the SP in Madhya Pradesh.

“The BJP sets these types of perceptions that our candidates will make a dent in Congress votes, which is not true. In Bijawar, for instance, we defeated the BJP the last time and in Bhind, we fielded a sitting BJP MLA. This time, we will perform better; we are well prepared,” Bharti pointed out, adding that SP is eyeing to win half a dozen seats as it has fielded strong candidates in over 15 seats.

In Chambal, SP is contesting in seats like Sabalgarh, Morena, Jaura, Sumawali and Dimni, where Congress won in 2018 and believes it has a strong chance of winning. In the Vindhya and Bundelkhand regions, SP is primarily contesting on seats that the BJP had won in 2018.

Similarly, AAP had fielded 208 candidates in 2018, which has reduced to 66 this election. Barring a few constituencies, like Singrauli, contested by AAP state president Rani Agarwal, the party had forfeited its chance to contest in almost all places in the last polls. AAP leaders say their situation has improved a lot since the party’s vote share increased after the civic polls, and they currently have a mayor and 52 corporators in the state.

To drum up support for the party, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and Punjab CM Bhagwant Maan held over half a dozen rallies in the state, including Bhopal, Jabalpur, Gwalior, Singrauli and Chattarpur. The party has appointed MLAs from Punjab to oversee the campaign on those seats where the party is contesting.

“It is unwise to claim that AAP will make a dent in Congress votes only. For example, we have Sudhir Yadav, our candidate in Banda, who was from BJP. Mukesh Jain Dhana, a former senior leader of BJP, is now our candidate in Sagar. So, this perception is not correct,” said AAP leader Pankaj Singh.

As far as the BSP-GGP coalition is concerned, both parties contested the last election separately.

The BSP which fielded 227 candidates out of 230 seats in the 2018 elections, polled 5.1% votes, recording a drop of 1.29% from the last election. The party won two seats; Bhind seat of Chambal region and Patharia seat of Bundelkhan’s Damoh district and remain runner up on six seats; Sabalgarh, Jaura, Gwalior rural, Pohri, Rampur-Baghelan and Deotalab.

Nonetheless, the party got a jolt when its Bhind MLA Sanjeev Singh Kushwaha defected to BJP in 2021 but returned to BSP’s fold after the saffron party didn’t declare his candidature from that seat. Now, he is contesting from Bhind on a BSP ticket.

To give a push to their candidates, BSP supremo Mayawati held nine rallies between November 6 to 14, focusing on the Gwalior-Chambal, Bundelkhand and Mahakaushal regions of the state.

“Like the previous one, no one can form the government without BSP’s support,” said Ramakant Pippal, state president of BSP, over a call. “A government of this alliance will end the atrocities on dalits, tribals and women. This will also end the dictatorial and capitalist rule of BJP and Congress.”

Congress leaders dismiss any threat from these parties and say it’s a bipolar fight between Congress and BJP. “INDIA is a national coalition for 2024 parliamentary elections. These parties are contesting polls to protect their own identities by taking rebels into their folds. They will cut into votes of both the Congress and the BJP,” said Congress spokesperson KK Mishra.

Dinesh Gupta, a political analyst from Bhopal, backed the Congress' assessment of these parties and pointed out that these parties are fighting for their identities and not to win elections. Neither do they have a permanent vote bank in the state nor leaders who can appeal to the voters. These parties mostly bet on candidates who have their own mandates.

“Apart from that, these parties are a safe place for the rebel leaders who didn’t get tickets from either the BJP or the Congress to show off their strength,” Pippal said, adding that “Since Madhya Pradesh is a bipolar state, both the BJP and Congress use these parties and their candidates to fix their own seats.”

The Assembly Elections to the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly are due in November this year.