Modi's Lahore Stop-over: Third Reset in India Pakistan Relations

Modi's stop-over in Lahore for Nawaj Sharif's grand-daughter's wedding, is on par with what we have come to expect in his foreign policy. It is one of grand gestures and optics, in which the substance is either not visible or missing entirely.

For Modi and the BJP, which has been in the news for all the wrong reasons, Modi's Lahore visit is at least good press. It has been widely welcomed by other political parties except the Congress, as well as the media. For a beleaguered Modi, this an achievement in itself. The hard questions still remain: what do we want in our relationship with Pakistan? Do we want to achieve a modicum of normalcy, while disagreeing on a range of issues, or do want a permanent state of hostilities on both sides?

Be that as it may, let us first welcome that after a year of one-upmanship and breaking off talks on various grounds, we again have another reset of the India Pakistan relationship. This is the third reset under Modi. The first was the impromptu invitation to Nawaj Sharif that Modi had extended for his swearing in after last year's elections. That initiative, welcomed by all sides, quickly descended into mutual recriminations after the Pakistan High Commission invited the Hurriyat to a meeting. The second reset was Sharif and Modi meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Ufa, Russia. That one foundered on the strong criticism within Pakistan of Kashmir not being explicitly mentioned in the Ufa Declaration as one of the issues to be discussed in the talks. Both these resets showed that without solid homework and a well thought out outline of what are the do's and don'ts on both sides, the modalities of the discussions and the range of possible outcomes, impromptu initiatives can backfire. They raise expectations and by not delivering, focus then on who is responsible for the failure of the talks. Instead of achieving a normalisation of relations, they make future engagement even more difficult.

This time, unlike the other times, there seems to have been some homework. There has been a meeting in Bangkok between the two National Security Advisors – Ajit Doval and Lt.Gen. Naseer Khan Janjua – followed by a visit to Pakistan of India's External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj. It is the only time she has been visible in the India Pakistan process, which otherwise seems to be run directly from the PM's office.

Political analysts in Pakistan believe that as the chief spoiler of the India Pakistan relations, only the BJP can deliver peace. If they agree, the rest of the political spectrum would be only to happy to have peace, without being attacked as Muslim appeasers. This is the same argument that was used in the US: only a Republican administration could build bridges with Russia or China. Their anti-communist credentials were so strong that they therefore could build peace with the communists.

Whether this is true or not, there is a bond between the BJP and the ruling Muslim League. They both believe in religious identity based nationalism. A Nawaj Sharif feels more at home with Modi than a secular Inder Gujral or a Manmohan Singh. A secular India is in contradiction of Pakistan's nationhood, built as it is on Islam. With a Modi, terms of nationhood and the larger ideological framework are the same.

The question still remains that if we do not have some idea of where we want to go, raising of hopes through such grand gestures can backfire as another aborted peace initiative. Modi's foreign policies – whether in the neighbourhood or further afield – have been of extravaganzas and grand gestures. What has been missing is a vision of a coherent foreign policy. That is why we have to see whether this third initiative with Pakistan will be different from the earlier ones. And whether the BJP's core constituency will be willing to have peace with Pakistan.

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