Madrid to Baku: A Chronicle of Inadequate Climate Action

One of the slowest international discussions is the discussion on Climate Change as far as an agreement on an actionable plan is concerned. The slow pace has its justification—that international law is a soft law and therefore it is more beneficial to build a consensus than making laws which no one feels obligated to follow. However, given how climate related catastrophes are striking humanity—especially the developing and underdeveloped countries—the existing mechanisms are evidently not enough.

This article tries to examine what one of the most pivotal international frameworks on climate change has achieved in the last 5 years. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)f is the parent treaty of the Paris Agreement with 198 parties i.e., a universal membership. It also is the parent treaty of Kyoto protocol-a treaty on reduction in emissions.

The Paris Agreement signed in 2015 is a legally binding international treaty on climate change with the main aim of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2° C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C above pre-industrial levels. There are Nationally Determined Contributions under the agreement which the countries submit and are reviewed. The Conference of Parties (COP) is the supreme decision-making body of the convention and all state parties i.e., countries are represented here; it meets on a yearly basis.

The COP 29 climate meeting in Baku concluded in November 2024 with a disappointing deal on climate finance. Developed nations agreed to mobilize a “new collective quantified goal” (NCQG) of only $300 billion per year for developing nations by 2035. This was criticized by developing countries as a “paltry sum” since it represents only a three-times increase over their current mandate of $100 billion and falls significantly short of the estimated $1 trillion, or even $1.3 trillion, that developing countries need to effectively address climate change. Some even viewed it as a “betrayal” and a continuation of the trend of developed countries “taking apart the climate system” over the years. The 2022 Adaptation Gap Report had noted that the international adaptation finance flows to developing countries are five to ten times below estimated needs and will need over US $300 Billion per year by 2030.

Outcomes of the Last Five COPs

The last five COPs have each sought to advance the goals of the Paris Agreement, but they have met with varying levels of success:

COP 25, Madrid

COP 25 in Madrid (2019) focused on finalizing the “Katowice Rulebook,” the guidelines for implementing the Paris Agreement. However, countries failed to reach a consensus on critical issues like the rules for international carbon markets (Article 6). Despite the setbacks, COP25 made some progress on other issues. For example, it strengthened the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage by establishing the Santiago Network to offer technical assistance to vulnerable developing countries. It also adopted an enhanced gender action plan to promote gender-responsive climate action and climate finance.

COP 26, Glasgow

COP 26 in Glasgow (2021) was considered a pivotal moment for raising climate ambition and finalizing the Paris Rulebook. It achieved several notable outcomes, including the Glasgow Climate Pact, which called for countries to revisit and strengthen their emission reduction targets and accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal power and the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. COP26 also finally completed the Paris Rulebook, including agreement on Article 6. Another key focus was adaptation. The Glasgow Pact called for doubling the amount of finance to support developing countries in adapting to climate impacts. COP26 also saw the launch of several significant initiatives, including the Global Methane Pledge and a pledge by over 100 countries to halt and reverse deforestation by 2030.

COP 27, Sharm El-Sheikh

COP 27 in Sharm El-Sheikh (2022) was dubbed the “implementation COP”. There was some progress on mitigation, adaptation, and finance, but many issues remained unresolved. A major breakthrough was the agreement to establish a fund to address loss and damage caused by climate change in developing countries. This was a long-standing demand from vulnerable nations and was widely seen as a significant step towards climate justice. However, the final agreement lacked strong commitments on phasing out all fossil fuels, including oil and gas. It also included weak language regarding “transitioning away from fossil fuels” that was at odds with the official global stocktake. COP27 also saw developed countries fail to deliver on their $100 billion per year climate finance pledge, which was due to be met by 2020.

COP 28, Dubai

COP 28 in Dubai (2023) was the biggest COP yet and marked the conclusion of the first ‘global stocktake’ of the world’s collective progress towards achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. The key outcome of COP 28 was an agreement signalling the “beginning of the end” of the fossil fuel era. This agreement called for a transition away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner. It also called for tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030 and doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements over the same period. However, much of the language surrounding these commitments remained vague and non-binding. COP28 also made progress on operationalizing the Loss and Damage fund established at COP27. This fund will support developing nations experiencing the worst effects of climate change, like severe flooding and prolonged drought. COP28 also saw unprecedented recognition of the need to link efforts to address climate change with nature conservation. By the time COP 28 ended, the commitments to the Loss and Damage Fund totalled to US$ 661 Million.

COP, Baku

COP 29 in Baku (2024) focused on finance and aimed to set a new climate finance goal to replace the $100 billion goal set in 2009. The meeting ended with developed nations agreeing to mobilize a new NCQG of $300 billion per year for developing nations by 2035. While this trebled the previous goal, it was widely criticized as being inadequate to address the needs of developing countries, especially given that previous goals were not met. It was also criticized for offering “false hope” to vulnerable communities and nations and essentially “abandoning” them.

Unresolved Issues

Several critical issues remain unaddressed or inadequately dealt with during recent COPs. The most prominent of these is the continued insufficiency of climate finance. The financial commitments agreed upon at COP29 fall far short of what developing countries need to mitigate emissions, adapt to climate impacts, and address loss and damage. This funding gap undermines trust and hinders progress, leaving vulnerable communities and nations struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. The lack of a clear roadmap for achieving the new finance goal also raises concerns about accountability and implementation. Another unresolved issue is the ambiguity surrounding the phasing out of fossil fuels. While COP28 saw an agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels”, much of the language surrounding this agreement is vague and non-binding. The lack of a firm commitment to a rapid and complete phase-out of all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, remains a major concern. Finally, adaptation measures have not received the same level of attention and financial support as mitigation efforts, even though developing countries are facing increasingly severe climate impacts. This imbalance needs to be addressed to ensure a more comprehensive and equitable approach to climate action.

Challenges faced by developing countries

Developing countries are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change impacts, even though they have contributed the least to global greenhouse gas emissions. This is largely due to their geographic locations and limited financial and technological resources, which often make it difficult for them to adapt to climate impacts. As a result, developing countries rely heavily on financial support from developed countries to achieve their climate goals. These challenges are further exacerbated by the historical inequity of climate change. Developed countries have historically emitted the vast majority of greenhouse gases, contributing to the current climate crisis. This historical responsibility creates an ethical obligation for developed countries to provide financial and technological support to developing countries.

Balancing the scales and avoiding a Climate Black Swan

A “Climate Black Swan” event refers to a catastrophic and unpredictable climate-related event with severe global consequences. To avoid such an event, the international community must take urgent and ambitious action. This requires going beyond incremental steps and embracing transformative changes in our energy systems, economies, and lifestyles. It is essential to recognize that climate change is a global issue that requires a collective and coordinated response, one that prioritizes equity, justice, and the needs of the most vulnerable.

To address the imbalance between developed and developing countries and to effectively combat climate change, several actions are crucial. First and foremost, developed countries must fulfill their existing climate finance commitments and significantly scale up their financial support to developing countries. This includes providing grants and concessional loans for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage. Technology transfer and capacity-building are also essential. Developed countries should facilitate the transfer of clean technologies and provide capacity-building support to developing countries, empowering them to implement their climate plans and transition to sustainable development pathways. To ensure a just and equitable transition, the shift to a low-carbon economy must also consider the needs of workers and communities dependent on fossil fuels. This includes providing retraining opportunities, creating green jobs, and ensuring a fair distribution of the benefits and costs of the transition. Finally, all countries, especially major emitters, must set ambitious emission reduction targets aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius goal. This requires a rapid phase-out of all fossil fuels and a swift transition to renewable energy sources.

(The author is part of the legal research team)