Kerala Bypolls: LDF Banks on its Performance in Aroor and Konni Constituencies

As five Assembly constituencies in Kerala go to polls on October 21, the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) expects nothing less than a significant victory especially from the Aroor Assembly segment in Alappuzha. This is the only constituency out of the five, which was held by LDF and rest four had been held by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Aroor was the bastion of KR Gowri, one of the tallest leaders of communist movement in Kerala, who heads the Janathipathiya Samrakshana Samithy. She had represented Aroor for 9 terms, 7 times from LDF camp and two times from UDF camp. In 2006, CPI(M)’s AM Ariff had defeated Gowri, the then sitting Agricultural Minister. In the following Assembly elections in 2011 and 2016, Ariff had repeated his victory.

In the 2016 Assembly elections, AM Ariff had bagged about 38,000 more votes than the Congress candidate. Later, he quit the seat after making his maiden entry to the Lok Sabha in the Parliament elections 2019 from Alappuzha segment. Ariff had won by a margin of 10,474 votes. While his opponent, Shanimol Usman of Congress managed to get an upper hand in the Aroor Assembly constituency during the Lok Sabha elections. Usman was ahead by 648 votes in Ariff’s own turf. But, the political climate during the parliament elections were favourable to UDF.

Meanwhile, Usman’s lead in the Aroor constituency has helped her bag the candidature from UDF in the upcoming by-elections. Though few other names were also doing rounds from the UDF camp, she was the final choice of Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee.

From LDF, CPI(M) has fielded Manu C Pilikkan, a young leader from Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI). Since BJP’s Prakash Babu is not a popular face, the electoral battle will be between Manu and Shanimol Usman.

Also read: Vattiyoorkavu, a Crucial Seat in Kerala Bypolls

Manu’s election campaigns are based on the developmental activities initiated by the former representative Ariff and the policies of Pinarayi Vijayan-led state government. So far, the government has fulfilled 543 of 600 poll-promises made during 2016 Assembly elections. 

Since September 2018, after the Supreme Court’s order allowing the entry of women of all ages to the Sabarimala Temple, most of the political campaigns were revolving around this issue. Kerala government’s decision to follow the Supreme Court order had sparked many controversies in the state. Both Congress and BJP have been using this issue as a weapon against the state government. But the recently concluded Pala bypolls had shown that the same line of campaign did not work in favour of BJP or Congress.

But, in Konni by-election, both Congress and BJP have been trying to keep the Sabarimala issue in the limelight. BJP’s state chief PS Sreedharan Pillai himself has been changing his position on the issue very frequently. Earlier, BJP camp was claiming that they would come up with an ordinance. Later they had changed the stand and said that Centre cannot overrule court’s order. He had gone to the extent of openly admitting that they were raising the issue for mere political gains.

Like in other constituencies, the Left-led state government’s policies and development activities are a matter of debate here as well. Konni, which has been known as the bastion of Adoor Prakash, was allying with UDF since 1996. This seat has been lying vacant since May this year as the sitting legislator Adoor Prakash joined the Lok Sabha from Attingal after this year’s LS polls.

The UDF in Konni had witnessed strong inner party conflicts before finalising their candidate. Prakash had been advocating for Robin Peter though the District Congress Committee was against him. After many rounds of negotiations, Mohan Raj has been placed as the UDF candidate for Konni. Nair Service Society (NSS) was also in favour of Raj.

Though Ezhavas are the dominant community in Konni, Nairs and Christians, especially Orthodox Christians, have a major say in the electoral politics. In the light of the by-elections, NSS had urged its members to maintain ‘right distance’. This call is being seen as a deviation from its so called ‘equi-distance’ position. Apart from this, NSS head Sukumaran Nair has been criticising both CPI(M) and BJP, indicating that the right distance will be towards UDF. 

In Konnin, CPI(M) has fielded another young leader, K.U. Janeesh Kumar for LDF. Kumar who serves as the CPI(M) Pathanathitta district committee member and DYFI’s state vice president, entered politics through the Students Federation of India (SFI). Later in 2010, he had marked his victory from a Congress stronghold ward and then onwards, has marked his presence every where in the region.

Also read: Kerala Bypolls: Conflicts in Congress Intensify After Pala Result, Fronts Declare Candidates

BJP has not been a significant force in Konni, except during the 2019 Parliament elections. Even during the Lok Sabha elections, though they managed to manipulate the Sabarimala Order, they could only bag the third position. Konni Assembly constituency comes under Pathanamthitta Lok Sabha Constituency where Sabarimala is located.

In the LS elections, Anto Antony of Congress had got 34.36% of total votes polled. Veena George of CPI(M) had secured 32.47%  of total votes and K Surendran of BJP had 32.17% of the vote share. Whereas, in 2016 Assembly election, UDF had 50.81% of total votes polled. LDF had a vote percentage of 36.33 and NDAs share was 11.66%.

This time too, Surendran is leading the NDA camp. He was a participant of the violent protests after the state government had implemented the apex court’s Order on Sabarimla. As per an affidavit filed by the state government before the High Court in April this year, there are 242 cases registered against Surendran.

As the campaigns enter in the last lap, the question is will the systematic campaigns of CPI(M) and Left front and the policies of the ruling state government reap any rewards or will UDF be able to maintain the traditional vote bank of Adoor Prakash?