Karnataka Election Results Will Determine BJP's Future in South?

Karnataka election results will prove whether Karnataka will be the gateway of the south for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This is why the Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, the star campaigner of BJP, put all his efforts into winning this one state. His gambit, full of sam-daam-dand-bhed, was successful to some extent in diverting the attention from the ground issues of Karnataka elections. At least 100% credit goes to Modi for the daily headlines and prime time space BJP got in the media (print and electronic).

Otherwise, the deep resentment from the ground about the BJP's state government would have been in the news headlines.

In such a situation, I want to share some concrete voices I heard while reporting from the ground in different parts of Karnataka. Like every time, this time too, in my election coverage, I had kept those people, who are labourers, labourers, farmers, and youth, at the centre. In this sequence, on the way from Bangalore to Mandya, I spoke to some women daily wage labourers on the highway near Ramnagar. One of these females, Kavita, said something that seemed to be of great importance.

"Tell me one thing; there is noise everywhere that vote for Modi, vote for Modi. Tell me, what did Modi do that we should vote for him? Everything in life has been made expensive, from rice, pulses, oil, soap, shampoo, and cooking gas. We are wage labourers; we earn daily, and then the house runs. Modiji is bathing with flowers and wearing new clothes; what is the use of this? No job, how do we send our children to school and get them married—no one is talking about this. At least when Congress was there, we used to get ration. Many things were cheap. At least there was no such fire. Here it is just Modi's road show, a road show- will this fill the stomach of the poor? We do not exist in his books at all…"

Kavita (Daily wage worker, Ramnagar)

Now pay attention to the anger of Srinivas, who drives an auto in the Mandya area.

"The BJP government has imposed a tax on everything. Meters have also been installed on drinking water. All this would be going on in your cities, but in these small villages and towns, if we have to pay for drinking water, we will die. We don't earn that much, and then water is a gift of nature, isn't it? I think that if (BJP) comes this time, it will collect money from us by installing meters even when we are breathing. Modi government lies in everything. Modi government announced opening a free account; we did not get any money. We opened an account by paying Rs 500, and after one-year service tax was deducted from our own money in the bank. Modi ji is God for those with full stomachs and fat businessmen. Those who are poor, hungry, and working hard to survive will not lie."

Srinivas (Auto driver, Mandya)

And now let us see what BJP supporter Parashivamurthy, who lives in the same area, argues.

"Only BJP can take the country forward; all others are engaged in breaking the country. Sikhs are demanding a separate country, and Muslims are separate. Congress is doing politics of division. In contrast, BJP talks about keeping everyone together. Protects our interest. It tells the Muslims their place. See from Kashmir; by removing 370, they made it equal, didn't they? This is why the Congress is worried. Congress may do anything, but in the end, only BJP will come to power. We know this."

Parashivamurthy

Mariamma speaks almost in this style in the area adjacent to Mysore.

"Modi has done a good job. He is doing good work for the country. Only he will win. (When asked, she says in response) Inflation has indeed increased, and oil and gas have become expensive. But they are doing important work, aren't they? (On asking if this election belongs to Karnataka...) The Bommai government will indeed come back because Modi is with him. He will fix everything."

Mariamma

Raghu collided in front of Mysore Fort, and what he said was in the same tone as BJP supporters across the state

"Modiji's air is very good. No one stays in front of him. He wants to take the country to the top of the world. (On asking) Modi ji has to campaign because Yeddyurappa has retired and Bommai got only two years. Modi ji has built highways and done much development work."

Raghu

Writer H.S. Anupama, who hails from Mangaluru, considered BJP's bastion in Karnataka, said, "Due to various reasons, this area has been fertile land of other extremist parties, including Bharatiya Janata Party and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). There has been a severe lack of socio-cultural movement in this area. The economic condition of the Muslims here is strong. That's why they have been targeted for economic reasons as well. But this time, despite all the efforts, that kind of sharp polarisation has not happened here. This is why a new team was fielded here, but their graph will drop."

All these voices belong to different caste groups and class groups. These threads provide clues to understanding the politics behind the campaign in the Karnataka elections. This time in Karnataka, there was a lot of discussion about the name of the Prime Minister and the charisma of the BJP, but the fundamental stake was elsewhere. It was the card of Hindutva that the central team of BJP brought to the streets with full force. BJP can also get an edge because hatred against Muslims has been internalised (assimilated) for the last nine years as a well-planned strategy. I felt this in the form of undercurrent in different assemblies of Karnataka. Almost everywhere voted in favour of the BJP or, say, Modi, and the arguments of the donors were similar.

Modi has done a lot for the country, has raised the name of India in the world, and has done a lot of development. After digging a little more, smiling lightly, says, only Modi ji can do this work. He showed them (Muslims) the right place. Otherwise, these people would have always created riots. The series of conversations can go from love-jihad to hijab-halal, religious fanaticism of Muslims, their procreation of more children and the removal of 370 from Kashmir. You can hit this basic framework in any corner of the country. But in Karnataka, many tricks were used. However, the BJP did not concentrate on a single fund. In this, the Prime Minister first made a bet of turning himself into the most significant election issue. To install a victimhood card. Referring to the abuses levelled at him, he said he is the election issue. After listening to Modi's speeches, it seemed as if there was a Congress government in Karnataka and not BJP. It was a diversionary strategy.

After this, a non-issue was made an election issue. Congress talked about banning Bajrang Dal and PFI in its manifesto, pulling which Modi started talking about banning Bajrang Bali. All discussions and debates in the media were drawn towards this. All these miracles can be said to be the product of a mischievous mind. This culminated in Modi's appeal that when voters go to cast their vote, they should say Jai Bajrang Bali and cast their vote. According to the law, the election fire should have been sent on this statement, while immediately intervening, a notice should have been sent. But we are no longer under any illusion about the impartiality of the Election Commission. Therefore, the BJP was successful in making this an election issue.

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath was fielded in some areas of Karnataka with a sizeable North Indian population. Yogi openly played cards from visiting Ram Mandir to Bajrang Bali. Along with him, Hemant Vissarma of Assam spewed venom against the Muslims, keeping all the rules and regulations in check. Raja Singh of Telangana and the rest of the violent brigade joined hands with them. It is a fascinating fact that on the one hand, all these radical Hindutva agendas were being fueled, while Karnataka BJP leaders, be it Yeddyurappa or Bommai—were saying that there is neither a Hijab issue nor a Halal issue in Karnataka Is. Now see both these things are being said by the leaders of the BJP. The target audience of both is different.

The Karnataka election will also be known for the money-lipped-glamorous election campaign of the BJP. The BJP claims it held over 400 public rallies and 130 road shows. A lot of money was spent on these road shows. Estimates of crores of rupees spent on the continuous shower of flowers also came to the fore. Modi has held 19 big public meetings and six roadshows since April 29. Throughout the road shows in big cities, including Bangaluru, the media showed those BJP women shouting in front of the camera that Modi is God, God's incarnation, and very important for the country, the world and Karnataka. Now this discussion has spread to other areas, and everywhere the voters are being asked the same question whether they also consider Modi as God or God's Avatar. In this way, the election agenda was changed again. Then a propaganda film entirely based on fake news like Kerala Story took command.

If we keep the BJP's strategy focused only and only on the Hindu forward agenda in the Karnataka elections, then perhaps it will be a big mistake. How effective is BJP's calculated risk of manipulating caste equations?

Will happen; only time will tell. The politics of Karnataka revolves around two caste groups, Lingayat and Vokkalgat. Lingayats are 17%, the leading caste and politically the most powerful. BJP came to power on their strength. The tallest leader has been Yeddyurappa - whose influence has been considerable. The BJP made Bommai the Chief Minister by using him as a Hugulbargat, he is also a Lingayat, but he is not a leader with influence. Couldn't even become a prominent face in these elections.

Areas with significant Lingayat influence include Bidar, Bagalkot, Dharwad, Vijayapura, Belagavi, Haveri, Gadag and Uttara Kannada. This time, Jagdish Shettar, a senior Lingayat leader associated with the BJP and the RSS, is hopeful of getting the votes of this community in the Congress as well.

The fate of 224 assembly seats in Karnataka is confined to 31 districts. Whoever gets possession of 113 seats, their government.

The Vokkaliga community constitutes around 15 per cent of the population. Mainly it is associated with Janata Dal (Secular). The districts of Hassan, Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamarajanagar, Chitradurga etc., are Vokkaliga-dominated areas. Lingayats and Vokkaligas hold about 140 assembly seats.

What is troubling in these elections is that both the BJP and the Sangh want to challenge the supremacy of these castes. By making a dent in this, they have promoted the leaders of their brigade. This is undoubtedly a threat to Kannadiga's pride and identity. BJP's strategy is to eradicate the regional satraps-leaders. Doing this promotes leaders who speak hate speech based on their ideology. This time such leaders were also made to contest elections.

BJP's strategy is to convert Karnataka into a new type of Hindutva laboratory and reduce caste and regional identity and pride. Kannadida Asmita, every time BJP gets Hindutva, There is a hindrance in putting the saffron-coloured sheet on all the devotees. That's why along with cutting Lingayat leader Yeddyurappa to size, the step was taken to make Kurba leader Eshwarappa sit down. The same Brahmin leader Tejasvi Surya was raised as a shining star. In this episode, handing over the responsibility of Karnataka to BL Santosh and Prahlad Joshi can also be seen.

What Karnataka's influential creator Devanuru Mahadeva said about this seems to be accurate.

In Karnataka, there is a fight between the Constitution of the country and the Constitution of Manu. The BJP will not be able to completely capture Karnataka as long as it has a strong regional leader. That's why by eliminating them, BJP is playing a dangerous game.

All these questions arise during the election season. The solution lies with the people of Karnataka only. The battle for Kannidiga's dignity, Basavanna's legacy and an aggressive form of Hindutva will be long.