Karnataka Assembly Polls: Will JD(S) Reclaim Its Secular Stand, in Case of a Hung House?

The electoral outcome of May 12 Karnataka Polls is indeed crucial, not only for the three major parties in the contest – Congress, BJP and JD(S), but also for most of the regional parties across the country which are waiting to decide upon their tactics, ahead of the 2019 general elections. As numerous pre-poll surveys have predicted that none of the three parties will get a clear majority, speculating hung assembly, JD(S) is being considered as the key player. If such is the case, then the JD(S) will have to consider its own secular stand, in order to uphold its relevance before choosing the side between Congress and BJP.

For more than six months now, all the three parties in the fray have campaigned extensively across the South Indian state. When both BJP and Congress leaders were projecting that the battle would be mainly between the two national parties, JD(S) was able to break that myth and emerged as a crucial competitor under the experienced guidance of its chief and former Prime Minister H D Deva Gowda. For instance, JD(S) announced its first list of 126 contesting candidates in the constituencies where the party had maintained a stronghold, consistently for more than two months before the other two parties did. JD(S) electoral alliance with the national party BSP and AIMIM’s support, are expected to increase the party’s base among the Dalit and Muslim vote banks. JD(S) and BSP have fielded 219 (201 JD(S) and 18 BSP) candidates, while BJP and Congress have fielded 224 and 222 candidates respectively.

In the previous 2013 Karnataka elections, while the JD(S) was able to secure 40 seats, the Congress won in 122 seats, forming the government and the BJP won in 40 seats. With a different scenario existing this time, the Congress in power in the state and the BJP in power at the Centre, while the crucial problems, water and employment crisis still haunting the Kannadigas, it is more likely for the JD(S) candidates to garner votes from the resentment against the BJP and Congress towards them.

Considering the 2004 Assembly elections outcome, the last time Karnataka witnessed a hung assembly was when BJP secured 79 seats, followed by the Congress and JD(S) winning 65 and 58 seats respectively. At that time, JD(S) allied with the Congress and formed the government and the Congress candidate Dharam Singh became the chief minister. However, within two years of coalition government, the JD(S) shifted its loyalties to the BJP and H D Kumaraswamy became Chief Minister, in spite of his father H D Deva Gowda’s reluctance on the alliance with BJP. However, Kumaraswamy’s tenure ended within 20 months with a bitter experience, when the BJP lured JD(S) MLAs towards its support.  Following this, in the 2008 assembly elections, JD(S) witnessed a major reduction in the number of seats, which only secured 28 seats.

Now, during the campaigning for the impending elections, when JD(S) chief ministerial candidate Kumaraswamy was questioned by various media on the speculations of a hung house, he rather denied joining hands with both the Congress and the BJP and claimed of winning with a clear majority. While it is a normal tactic to not reveal any opinions publicly for such hypothetical conditions, H D Deva Gowda seemed rather confident about his actions, should such a situation arise.

Since the BJP is currently in power, ruling more than 20 states and simultaneously fanning its Hindu right-wing agenda, many national and regional parties are considering forming a larger-secular alliance to overthrow the BJP. For JD(S), in order to reclaim its fading secular stand, joining hands again with BJP will nonetheless be a betrayal to itself.