Kairana Bypoll Results Will Test BJP's Hindutva Strategy

The importance of Kairana bypolls goes beyond its immediacy. Going by the voices from the ground, it is quite clear that the bypoll results will test the relevance of Hindutva strategy in the State, which represents the core of their base.

Be it the Jat-dominated villages like Kaserwa Kalaan or Muslim-dominated town of Kandhla, people felt quite strongly about cane arrears, price rise and fuel prices hike.

Most importantly, there was a large chunk of people who expressed their dissatisfaction with the Yogi Adityanath government, indicating that some kind of anti-incumbency against the BJP governments in the State as well as at the Centre was at play, giving an edge to the opposition in a hard-fought electoral battle.

Jats – people from a dominant and an influential caste in Western Uttar Pradesh – were vocal about their apparent return to the Rashtriya Lok Dal, a party they supported traditionally since the time of Chaudhary Charan Singh.

“I know I am being vocal this time unlike during the state assembly polls, but you cannot be silent when so many things are happening in the country. In 2017, the Jat vote got divided between BJP and RLD. Many of us supported the BJP. We are not BJP voters. It was like giving the party a chance and see how they perform,” said Vikas Chaudhary, a man in his late forties, while he sat on a cot in a narrow by-lane of Kaserwa Kalan.

“I cannot tell you who will I vote for, but I must tell you that most of us are quite disappointed with the ruling party. Nothing substantial has happened, which could give us some hope about the future of farmers who are yet to get Rs. 12,000 crore as cane arrears,” he added.

“Many felt that we should not get divided and should make our presence felt by making a strong statement by voting together. I think that is what is going to happen,” he added while many polling booths in Kairana went to re-polling on Wednesday after failure of EVMs and VVPAT prevented a large section of electorate from exercising their universal franchise.

Furqan Chauhan, a resident of Kairana town was of the view that not only Muslims, but other socio-economic groups as well will vote for Tabassum Hasan, the RLD candidate who got the support of other opposition parties as well. Hasan has posed a daunting challenge to the BJP in retaining the seat which its veteran leader Hukum Singh won. The bypoll was necessitated due to his death.

“Earlier there was division of votes between the Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and Congress. Now not only Muslims, but Dalits and Jats too are voting for the RLD candidate,” he said.

Chauhan recalled a time when “Babu Hukum Singh used to get the votes of Muslims too”.

“But that changed because sadly, Hukum Singh communalised this area by coming up with the propaganda of Hindu exodus from Kairana which was exposed as a lie. All his life he got Muslim support. After all, how could he win from Kairana without Muslim votes? But at the last stage in his life, his politics changed for worse, which disappointed us. Migration and exodus is happening from small towns like Kairana, but everyone who is looking for employment opportunities, irrespective of their religion and caste, are leaving the town. It exposed Hukum Singh,” added Chauhan who works in the factories of nearby town of Panipat after he failed to get work opportunities in his home town.

Sudhir Panwar, a senior leader of Samajwadi Party who hails from Thana Bhawan – an assembly constituency which is a part of Kairana Lok Sabha constituency, was of the view that the larger writing on the wall is quite clear.

“The first thing is that the anger against both the Modi and Yogi governments is apparent. The point is that the promises made by Modi government four years ago about doubling the income of farmers, has not happened. Similarly, the BJP got votes of farmers by promising that it will ensure payment of cane arrears within 14 days of selling the cane to sugar mills. Now the situation is so bad that farmers of the state are yet to get Rs. 12,000 crore from sugar mills, which have red flagged a financial crisis facing them but the state government is yet to act,” said Panwar, a former member of State Planning Commission.

He said that Kairana bypoll results, which will be out on Thursday, will not only test the Hindutva strategy of the saffron party, but it will also force it to change it.

“What has changed from 2014 to now is that Jats are voting for a Muslim candidate. It shows that it is no longer the communal polarisation, which is going to work for the BJP. I strongly believe that the Kairana by-polls will force the BJP to change its Hindutva strategy. And to some extent, Narendra Modi indicated this when he addressed a public rally in Baghpat,” he added.

Panwar said that the fact that Mr. Modi came to Baghpat and did not even name or pay homage to Chaudhary Charan Singh, the former prime minister who was the tallest political figure and a patron of Jats, suggests that BJP has left hopes of getting the Jat votes.

“When Mr. Modi announced that the BJP government was working on bringing quota within the OBC quota for the most Backward OBCs (MBCs), it suggested how the BJP was re-strategising its traditional plank of Hindutva,” he added.

PM Modi had, while addressing a public rally in Baghpat on May 27, referred to a panel set up by his government to examine the eligibility of MBCs to access a sub-quota within the 27 per cent quota carved out for OBCs in government jobs and educational institutions.

“The government wants the most backwards in OBCs to benefit more from reservation within the given limit. We have formed a commission to look into sub-categorisation of OBCs,” Modi had said.

For now, however, Panwar believed that Tabassum Hasan, the RLD candidate fighting against Mrignaka Singh, the BJP candidate who is the daughter of Hukum Singh, will win the bypoll because she was expected to get support from cross section of the society. She will also get the floating votes because of her chances to win.