Japan’s Revised Defence Plan, Offensive and Unconstitutional?

On December 18, Tuesday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet approved a revised version of the National Defence Program Guidelines, unveiling the defence capability blueprint for the next five years.

The five-year plan approved on Tuesday assumes record defence spending of 27.47 trillion yen (US$244 billion) through March 2024. It includes costs to introduce a pair of US-developed land-based Aegis Ashore missile defence batteries to counter North Korea’s missile threat.

Marking a significant upgrade of the nation’s defence capabilities, it is also set to introduce the first aircraft carrier since World War II. In a perceptible violation of Article 9 of its Constitution, the revised defence plan will introduce the deployment of long-range missiles, and the development of cyber and space warfare capabilities.

Article 9, which was imposed by Washington on a defeated Japan in 1945, states: “The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” Article 9 of Japan’s war-renouncing Constitution also states: “Land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained.”

Japan’s game changing decision comes months after the Vietnamese President Tran Dai Quang had asked for Japanese support. In May 2018, Quang called for Japan’s active involvement in resolving the territorial dispute between Vietnam and China. Reflecting a heightened concern of China’s increased military presence in the region by conducting bomber drills and deploying missiles, the President asked for coordinated action between the two countries.

The revision has also come amid pressure on U.S. allies to take more responsibility for their own defence. U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at a possible withdrawal of U.S. forces from Northeast Asia.

US-Japan Security Pacts, Roles Blurred?

Since 1951, US-Japan security pacts had mandated that the defence of Japan would be the responsibility of Japanese “self-defence forces”, while strike missions would be carried out by American forces stationed in Japan. With the revision of Japan’s defence guidelines, those roles will be blurred.

Abe’s government has argued that these militaristic efforts are necessary to counter the growing defence challenges in the region, tensions with North Korea and the expansion of China’s military footprint and its belligerence in the South China Sea. By 2030, China is expected to have at least four aircraft carrier battle groups in service.

Beijing has always suspected Japan’s professed pacifism and have referred to its Izumo helicopter destroyer and its sister ship, Kaga, as “aircraft carriers in disguise.”

Coming out of this apparent disguise, the revised defence plan is also set to buy 63 more F-35As and 42 F-35Bs – the short take-off and vertical landing variant that flies off aircraft carriers.

However, critics have argued that the move of possessing what are deemed to be highly offensive armaments shifts Tokyo further away from its commitment to strictly defensive capabilities.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hua Chunying said Japan’s concerns about Beijing’s military are “not conducive to the development and improvement of Sino-Japanese relations”. Beijing further “urges Japan to adhere to a purely defensive policy,” Chunying further added at a regular press briefing.

Collin Koh Swee Lean, a defence expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said Tokyo’s plan might provoke a backlash not only from China but also the two Koreas, and intensify naval competition in northeast Asia, reported South China Morning Post.

Hideki Uemura, a professor at the Ryutsu Keizai University in Japan, considers the modified Izumo ship obviously as an aircraft carrier, “as long as it can launch fighter jets to attack opponents.”

“I think the conversion of Izumo is not only useless in terms of military purposes, it can even provoke China,” Uemura said. Concerned over how the move will be perceived by other nations, Uemura predicts China to take a tougher stance against Japan, as reported.

Kyoji Yanagisawa, a former defence bureaucrat who now serves as the head of International Geopolitics Institute Japan has also expressed his disappointment at the haste in approval of the plan and at the lack of sufficient debate on what functions it will play, as reported by SCMP.

Japan-India Space Dialogue

The Japan-India Space Dialogue, which is a move in developing bilateral cyber and space warfare, established in October by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, aims at coordinating efforts to improve security by tracking satellites and ships. The first meeting will be held by March 2019 with the focus on sharing satellite and radar information and ground infrastructure to beef up each other’s defence capabilities. Diversifying its sources, India hopes the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) to help keep tabs on Chinese troop movements along its Northern border.

As for Japan, India's ocean surveillance capabilities will help it track Chinese naval vessels in the South China and East China seas, as well as detect signs of North Korean missile activity, reported Indian Defence News.

“The Izumo-class destroyers will continue to serve as multi-function, multi-purpose destroyers. This mode of operation falls within the realm of an exclusively defence-oriented policy,” Defence Minister Takeshi Iwaya told a regular briefing.

Many have echoed Iwaya and the government’s view that refitting Izumo-class ships, will not make them highly offensive, given that each only has the capacity to carry 10 F-35B fighter jets. Noboru Yamaguchi, vice-president of the International University of Japan in Niigata Prefecture further highlights Izumo-class ships to be too small in comparison with China’s aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, capable of loading 20 fighters, or 100,000 tonne-class US carriers capable of transporting about 50 fighters.  

The retired Ground Self-Defence Force officer said the presence of Izumo ships would be useful in beefing up defence over the far-flung islands in the southwest, including an area where tensions remain high over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China claims and calls Diaoyu, reported SCMP.

Trying to catch up with China, said former Assistant Chief Cabinet Secretary Kyoji Yanagisawa, will force Japan to get sucked into a "limitless arms race, until the country's finances go bust," as China's national defence spending is already four times that of Japan.

The opposition camp has focused their attack on the ruling bloc for "Prime Minister Abe's consideration to President Trump" in buying American defence equipment.
"He must be severely criticised for 'binge buying' as urged by President Trump," said Japanese Communist Party secretariat chief Akira Koike in a December 18 press conference, demanding the retraction of the defence package, reported The Mainichi.

As a justification of the conversion plan, the Abe government and the ruling party have argued that F-35B fighter jets will be operated as carrier-born aircraft not “on a routine basis” but only “on demand”, the Japan Press Weekly reported.

In the latest issue by the Japan Press Weekly, it has been concluded that an improved Izumo-class escort warship that can carry F-35Bs is an attack aircraft carrier and is therefore unconstitutional.

Aware of the concerns of its neighbours, Japan reworded the guideline to say the Izumo would be upgraded as “multi-purpose destroyer”, deviating from its initial proposal of the introduction of a “multi-purpose defensive aircraft carrier”. Regardless, the acquisition of 105 more F-35 fighters will further the militaristic narrative of the nationalist government and make it the world’s second largest fleet.