Erdogan Survives Failed Coup: Dangerous Times Still for the Region

The failed coup in Turkey shows up the fault lines that currently exist in Turkish society. Erdogan has ridden out, what appears to be a hurried attempt to beat a purge of the military and the judiciary. Not surprisingly, while more than 1,500 military personnel have been arrested after the coup failed, more than 2,500 judicial officers have been relived of their posts. Erdogan has not only not retained power, he has now broken the back of any judicial resistance that might have been there to his riding roughshod over the constitution including press freedoms.

One of the reasons for the failure of the coup was that it was conducted by middle ranking officers in the armed forces and not the top level leadership. The Army Chief was held hostage almost till the end of the coup. So was the Airforce and the Navy chiefs.

Those organising the coup had captured the major strategic points in Istanbul and Ankara, and closed the state run TV station. They failed to capture Erdogan and his key ministers, and also failed to shut off private TV channels and the social media. This allowed Erdogan and his ministers to launch their appeals to the people to come out against the coup. It was finally the AKP supporters taking to the streets in large numbers – after Erdogan appealed to them on CNN Turkeyi -- that the coup was finally defeated.

Erdogan and his ministers have held Fethullah Gulen and his “shadow government” responsible for the coup. According to them, it is the Gulenists, who are deeply embedded in the state apparatus, that have been plotting against Erdogan and initiated this coup. Earlier, Gulen supported Erdogan and AKP in successive elections against secular Kemalist parties, and also supports the AKP program of Islamisation of the state. He has fallen out with Erdogan over the last few years. Erdogan has been accusing him of infiltration of various arms of the state and trying to run a parallel government.

It is clear that the coup did not have the support of the Kemalists – or the secular section of the military -- who are otherwise anti Erdogan. Almost all the political parties including the HDP, came out against the coup. They might be against Erdogan – for eaxmple Erdogan is currently bent on destroying the HDP – but are not willing for the Military to take power. A constitutional Sultan Erdogan, however truncated the constitution might be, is preferable to the unbridled power of Military rulers.

Erdogan and Turkish government spokespersons have called for Gulen's extradition from the US, a call which the US is unlikely to honour. Gulen is a permanent resident of the US for nearly two decades, and is deeply embedded in the US plans for the region. It is his reach into Turkey, and Central Asia that the US wants to use for encircling and containing Russia.

Interestingly, the US was initially coy about condemning the coup, calling only for “stability”. Only after it was clear that the coup had failed – or failing – that they came out against the coup; therefore the suspicion that this was a CIA inspired Gulenist coup.

At the time of writing, NATO's Incirlik base in Turkey, that also stores nuclear weapons, has been sealed and its power cut off. It could be pressure tactics against the US, or it could simply be that a part of the Turkish airforce located in Incirlik base was involved the coup; therefore the action. Right now, Turkey has effectively stopped all attacks on ISIS from Turkish airbases.

At this stage, It is difficult to see how this coup will affect the larger strategic picture in the region. There has been a recent thaw in the Russia Turkey relations. Will it continue or even improve? One of the Turkish ministers have claimed that shooting of the Russian plane was done by a senior officer in the Airforce, who is now revealed to be a part of the coup. Therefore the rupture between Turkey and Russia was engineered by this “shadow government” with allegiance to Gulen. It could be an opportunistic use of the coup by Erdogan, but could also be portent of things to come, i.e., moving closer to Russia.

If the coup was indeed conducted by Gulenists, it would certainly strain Turkey's relations with the US. Turkey would see the coup as a US-backed plot. This could then lead to a stand-off on the issue of Gulen's extradition from the US versus use of Incirlik base against the ISIS.

Will Turkey continue its support to the so-called “moderates” and its Turkemen proxy forces in Syria, who are allied to al Qaeda affiliate Jubahat al Nusra? And Nusra's close allies Ahrar al Sham and Jaish al Islam? Will it continue its ambivalence towards ISIS – allowing the use of its borders to supply ISIS and buy oil from them? Will it continue its program of regime change in Syria or align more closely with Russia, and therefore make peace with the Assad government? There are no immediate answers to these questions.

There is little doubt that this coup is going to strain relations between the US and Turkey considerably. It is not helped by Boris Johnson becoming the Foreign Minister of the UK, who won a “prize” for a poem lampooning Erdogan. Erdogan is not known to take lightly to slights such as calling him a “wankerer” that Boris did. So NATO could be in for some rough time in Turkey and the region over this coup.

That necessarily does not help the Assad government in its civil war. Turkey's break with the west could also lead it to play a lone hand in the region. While in the long run such a policy will fail, in the short run, Turkey has the muscle to cause further destruction in Syria.