Change in Congress’ Fortunes Can be Game Changer for Opposition Unity

Since 2014, Narendra Modi has towered over the space of national elections. One thing that has contributed to his absolute dominance is that Opposition parties have failed to find any common ground to unite against him. Till now, the biggest impediment to an Opposition alliance has been the Congress. Its leadership, especially Rahul Gandhi, had been successfully painted as incompetent within public discourse.

On top of that, the United Progressive Alliance or UPA-2 was seen as an extremely corrupt government, a perception that had been continuously propagated by the pro-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) national media. This made the Congress a liability as an ally in some states, while in others, it was the main rival to dominant regional parties, precluding any possibility of an alliance.

Nine years have passed since the Congress got routed, and public memory is beginning to fade. Rahul Gandhi himself has achieved significant success in shedding the ‘pappu’ tag, imposed on him by BJP and the corporate-controlled mainstream media. The consistency of his criticism of the government, and the physical feat of walking over 3,000 kilometres during the Bharat Jodo Yatra, have helped rehabilitate him in the voter’s mind.

The Congress party’s electoral debacles in some states have also made it more acceptable to some regional formations. It has no chance of winning anything in Bihar without the Rashtriya Janata Dal- Janata Dal (United) taking it along. The party’s attempts to go it alone in Uttar Pradesh have ended up in nought. Even in Maharashtra, it has been pushed to the fourth position. This makes it easier for non-BJP regional parties to tie-up with it, without feeling threatened.

On the other side, it has managed to vanquish the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka and has taken over a large chunk of its votes. The party, which had lost control over Madhya Pradesh, despite winning the state elections in 2018, is now widely believed to be the front-runner. It has a winning alliance in place in Tamil Nadu, and has retained its position as the principal Opposition party in Kerala, despite BJP’s attempts to usurp that space. In Telangana, too, Congress is reported to be on the upswing after the Karnataka Assembly electoral win, with a few big leaders, who had left the party, planning to return to its fold.

This change in Congress party’s fortunes – both its increased weakness in some states, and its resurgence in others – is a game-changer for Opposition parties. They see it as a potential glue at the centre, without the chance of having the numbers to dominate a future coalition.

In 2004, Congress had 145 seats, and managed to lead a stable coalition. Five years later, it increased its seats to 206, and the coalition gradually fell apart. All regional parties know that when Congress becomes a dominant partner, it tries to bulldoze states into following the central line. A weaker Congress is forced to be more accommodating toward regional interests.

So, for the first time since the emergence of Modi on the national scene, the Opposition parties are looking confident of forming a stable pre-election alliance that can span a majority of the large states.

In West Bengal, Congress would gain from accepting Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee as the dominant partner, just as it already does with Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam or DMK in Tamil Nadu and RJD in Bihar. In UP, Samajwadi Party has emerged as the biggest challenger to the Modi-Yogi electoral ‘double engine’. The Congress, which fought on its own in the 2022 Assembly polls, will be better served if it accepts a junior-partner role. On the ground, there is a better chance of a social alliance between SP and Congress party’s support-bases, unlike the uneasy marriage between the SP and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party. The results in Kerala will have no impact on national politics, because if it is a choice between BJP and Congress, the Left is likely to back the latter at the centre.

This means that an alliance can be forged amongst strong Opposition parties, whether currently in power or not, in 17 states – Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh Haryana, Himachal, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and West Bengal.

In each of these, either Congress or a regional party are in power, or are within striking distance of the ruling party. Together these account for 451 out of the total 543 seats. I have deliberately kept out states like Gujarat and Tripura, where BJP is unassailable. I have also kept the North Eastern states out of this equation, because the regional parties tend to go with whoever is in power at the Centre. I have also left out Punjab, Delhi, and Odisha. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is dominant in the first two, while in the third, the Biju Janata Dal, is the clear leader. Neither AAP nor BJD would want to be part of a Congress-led pre-election alliance.

If the Opposition parties can put up a united front, they will be able to solve the TINA (There is No Alternative) problem that many voters face when they vote for Lok Sabha elections. There would be a clear projection of a possible coalition government at the Centre that can replace the Modi government. That can push fence-sitters over the edge, on to the side of the Opposition, giving it a fighting chance in 2024.

The writer was a senior managing editor of NDTV India & NDTV Profit. He runs the YouTube channel Desi Democracy and anchors a bi-weekly show on Newsclick. The views are personal.