BJP’s Five Point Strategy for Gujarat – How It May Not be Enough

Gujarat’s 89 seats go to polls on 9 December in the first phase of the two-phase Assembly election that has seen a bitter fight between PM Narendra Modi led BJP and the Rahul Gandhi led Congress. The campaigning has seen everything that frenetic Indian elections throw up – massive spending by parties, alleged sex CDs, caste tactics, communal rumour mongering through social media, state-sponsored bribery in the form of ‘inaugurations’ and ‘launch’ of everything from car parks to donations to temples, planted ‘interviews’ and puff pieces in mainstream media, and, of course, rhetoric in spades.

But there are some features of this election campaign that need to be remembered for future. BJP, the ruling party in state (and in Center) – perhaps sensing that the mood was not so conducive for them – unleashed an unprecedented strategy for snatching back the slipping support base and limiting its damage. The very fact that this was practiced should indicate the desperation on BJP’s part. But that aside, it also displays the hubris, and complete disregard to laws and conventions, that imbues the saffron party’s approach to winning elections. Here’s a look at the key features of this strategy.

1. Delaying announcement of elections and postponing the Parliament session: Although Himachal Pradesh elections were announced on 12 October, Gujarat elections were announced two weeks later on 25 October, perhaps to give more time to the state and central govts. to dole out sops to the people. Once elections are announced, and the model code of conduct comes into force, such announcements are barred. The Winter Session of Parliament was not just postponed (without any date being set) but nobody was consulted or told about this. Again, this was to facilitate the whole Cabinet and other leaders of the BJP to camp in Gujarat for the duration of the campaign.

2. Flurry of big money announcements by Modi and State Govt.: Although this has been standard practice in Indian elections but in Gujarat’s case, Modi and chief minister Rupani broke all records in squeezing in announcements of various schemes and programmes as well as sops to different sections of people, in the time available before the model code of conduct kicked in. Modi visted Gujarat over 20 times in 2017 and addressed over 30 public meetings, just to do this. These sops show the neglect of many burning problems of people for years, and then the low attempt to win them over just before elections. It is nothing short of bribery. Estimates of the value of promises made in the run-up to the election announcement range from Rs.11,000 crore to Rs.34,000 crore, not counting the Bullet Train worth Rs.1.1 lakh crore on its own. (See below a list of some of Modi’s announcements, put together from media reports).

Even as Modi was announcing these big schemes, chief minister Rupani also announced a slew of spending proposals. These appear to target the disaffected sections of Gujarat – and one can glean from them which sections have become disillusioned from the great ‘Gujarat Model of Development’. All this could have been done during the five years of BJP’s current term (or even earlier). But it needs a callous calculation of the Amit Shah kind to withhold these till the elections. (See below a partial list of announcements by CM Rupani or others drawn from media reports)

3. Communal and Casteist Tactics: Although there is no “official” connection to this arm of BJP’s propaganda machine, a series of WhatsApp and Facebook videos, images, messages etc. were circulated among people giving dire warnings about Muslim community, law and order, women’s security, terrorism and other Islamophobic material in order to sustain the communal polarization in the state and disrupt any unity that may be building between religious communities. In a state where 9% population is Muslim, the BJP has not put up even a single candidate from that community, although there are reports that it propped up several independent Muslim candidates in constituencies to divide Muslim vote. In order to counter caste based movements led by Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakore and Jignesh Mevani, the BJP tried to bribe colleagues of Patel, allegedly giving Rs.1 crore to one of them who later revealed the sordid story to media. The govt. threw out a series of sops to caste groups as detailed above.

4. Empty emotions and rhetoric: The Prime Minister, in his public meetings, displayed an increasing sense of disconnect with Gujarat’s people trying out varying types of ‘emotional atyachar’. He raked up issues of Congress calling him a ‘chai-walla’ (tea seller) or ‘neech’ (low) urging people to avenge these insults to him by voting for his party. He talked of how the world’s most powerful countries are praising India because of the progress made – and, in true electoral hypocrisy – said that this was because of the people (read voters), not him. He endlessly extolled the ‘vikas’ even though the whole state is in discontented ferment due to farmers’ distress, joblessness and obnoxious levels of inequality.

5. ‘Booth-level’ organization: This much-vaunted feature of the BJP-RSS organization, praised by mainstream media and certified by it as an unconquerable weapon in BJP’s armoury in contrast to the opposition’s lack of it, is actually more hype than reality. It is true that in urban areas of Gujarat, where BJP-RSS have a stronger base, activists do work at election booth levels and have a grasp over what is going on. But to extend it to the whole state and ascribe to it almost divine powers of “getting out the vote” is typical BJP-RSS hype that serves to make up in propaganda what it does not have on the ground. Moreover, voter mobilization machinery works only so far as the voters are willing to vote for you. If they are disaffected, then no amount of mobilization, ferrying them to booths by ‘panna-pramukhs’ (head of one page of electoral rolls) and booth management is going to work.

As several ground reports have indicated, the fortress of Gujarat is cracking. The ‘model’ of development and governance is turning rancid. There were indications of this in the 2015 local bodies’ polls. It will show in the current polls too. Mission 150 may well be slipping from Modi and Shah’s hands.