BJP or Congress? How Caste Dynamics Will Impact Rajasthan Polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Rajasthan is confidently claiming that it will break the state’s tradition of alternating power between the Congress and the saffron party every five years, and will form the government with an absolute majority once again after theDecember 7 elections. While it is citing “unprecedented development” as the reason behind this confidence, the ruling party seems to be facing an uphill task in the wake of  huge anti-incumbency because of multiple reasons.

The people of Rajasthan have elected the BJP and the Congress alternately every five years since 1993. The BJP had registered an impressive victory in the previous election by bagging 163 of the 200 seats and capturing a vote share of 45%. 

However, people in the state are accusing Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje of being “arrogant”, “inaccessible”, and not matching their expectations with regard to fulfilling the promises made prior to the 2013 Assembly election. The slogan doing the rounds is  “Modi Tujh Se Bair Nahin, Rani Teri Khair Nahin” ( Modi, we don’t dislike you, but Queen (Raje) we will not spare you.)

But, will the visible anger of the people against the ruling dispensation spell good poll prospects for the Congress? 

The Congress, which earlier this year won two Lok Sabha seats and one Assembly seat, in the bye-elections, is equally confident of forming the next government with a thumping majority. Discontent in the working class, increasing unemployment, sky-rocketing prices and agricultural distress leading to farmer suicides are some of the issues that the party expects will turn the tide in its favour.

But given the mood of the people in the state, this election does not appear to be a cakewalk for any political party in the fray. Multiple factors, such as candidate selection, projection of the chief ministerial candidate, caste, issues on the ground and leaders switching the goal posts are likely to influence the upcoming polls. 

Caste Equation

Caste groups having a small voting percentage are likely to go with new alliances for electoral benefits, as they had done in the past. Communities such as Rajputs and Gujjars,  who constitute 9% each of the state’s population, have witnessed a major churning. 

Given the discontent among them over the amended SC/ST law, “fake” encounter of gangster Anandpal Singh and anger against the film,Padmaavat, the BJP is likely to lose a sizeable chunk of Rajput votes, which may to shift to the Congress – with Manvendra Singh, son of the expelled BJP leader Jaswant Singh, joining the party — and Samta Party, the political outfit of the Samata Andolan samiti. 

Amid speculations that Sachin Pilot might be appointed as Congress’s  Chief Minister if the party wins, his Gujjar community, which is also unhappy with BJP on the reservation issue, may vote in favour of the grand old party.

The Raje government in July this year granted the Gujjars OBC (Other Backward Classes) status, by including them in the existing 21% quota, with an additional 1% quota as the Most Backward Class (MBC), taking the total reservation in the state to 50% — the maximum limit allowed by the Supreme Court.

Apart from reservation, the Gujjar community has another reason to protest — little political representation as compared to the Meenas who enjoy the Scheduled Tribe status (ST) with over 500 IAS, IPS and other white-collared job holders. This pits the Gujjars against the Meenas.

Rebel BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari, who has launched a new party called Bharat Vahini Party, may also eat into BJP’s traditional vote bank of Brahmins, who constitute 7% of the state’s total population. Tiwari has reached an alliance with influential Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal, who has also floated a new front, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, to oppose both BJP and Congress. The votes of the Jat community, which account for 16% of the population, are likely to go in favour of the Congress because of the farm distress, as a majority of the community depends on agriculture.  

As the state witnesses traditional rivalry of dominance between Jats and Rajputs in every election, the tribal Meena community’s votes may shift to Congress. Meenas also have 7% share in the state’s total population. However, political observers say BJP will also be able to bag a chunk the Meena community votes, with veteran leader Kirori Lal Meena returning to the party’s fold, after heading the National People’s Party for several years. He is the BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP from Rajasthan.

However, the Congress’s traditional support base among Muslims — who account for 13% of the state’s population — may weaken this time, with the community demanding a higher number of tickets to “strong candidates” . The Muslim community is also miffed with the Congress because of the party’s alleged “reluctance” of public support to Muslims.

It will be interesting to see how many Muslim candidates enter the Assembly this time, as the only two Muslims MLAs in the State at present are from BJP.

The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) contesting on all 200 seats can also impact the poll arithmetic of  BJP and Congress in 34 reserved constituencies for Scheduled Castes (SCs). The party won three seats in the 2013 Assembly elections by securing a vote share of 3.37%. It had bagged six seats in 2008 when its vote share was 7.60%. 

The BSP’s decision not to enter into an alliance with Congress and field its own candidates in all 200 constituencies will affect the Congress’s prospects in eastern districts with a significant Dalit population. The SC/ST communities together account for 30% of the state’s population.

The Mali community, which constitutes 6% of the total population and has good presence in all 200 seats, can also influence poll prospects. Political analysts say  members of the community are silent voters and influence poll results on a majority of seats. They are considered as traditional Congress voters because former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot hails from the same community. If Congress projects Pilot, it is likely to lose this caste group, which people say will be “suicidal” for the party. In addition, Gehlot has an image of a “socialist” leader and appears to be acceptable to all communities.

Pilot and Gehlot appear to have closed ranks and have organised several joint rallies. Congress President Rahul Gandhi, who has held roadshows in the State, has highlighted this “unity” in leadership to claim that the Congress is going to form the next government.