Bihar: Red Flags Give Tough Fight to Saffron Ones in Last Phase of LS Elections

Patna: The presence of “red flags” of the Left parties, key allies of Bihar's Mahagathbandhan, a part of the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), in three of the eight Lok Sabha seats going to polls on June 1, is posing a big challenge to saffron flags of the ruling BJP-led NDA in retaining all the seats it won last time.

Unlike last time, the red flags along with the green flags of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and tricolour flags of Congress are eyeing to wrest at least half of the eight seats in the last phase of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections.
A day after over a month-long aggressive election campaign during scorching summer ended, the last phase is a high-stakes battle not only for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) but also for Mahagathbandhan.

Patliputra

For instance, the Patliputra parliamentary constituency in Patna has become a prestige battle for RJD chief Lalu Prasad, where his eldest daughter, Misa Bharti, is in the fray for the third time after unsuccessfully contesting twice.

Braving ongoing heat wave, the ailing Lalu Prasad and his wife and former Chief Minister Rabri Devi campaigned in Patliputra early this week, seeking votes for their daughter. In fact, this time the RJD supremo campaigned in only two seats, Patliputra and Saran, where his other daughter Rohini Acharya is contesting for the first time.

The BJP incumbent MP from Patliputra, Ram Kirpal Yadav, a former Union minister, is seeking re-election and is eyeing a hattrick. But, he has been facing a tough battle due to anti-incumbency against him and the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Central government of Narendra Modi. Ram Kirpal Yadav’s winning margin was barely 40,000 votes in 2014 and 2019 despite the ‘Modi factor’.

The electoral fight in Patliputra is once again between two Yadavanshi (Yadav versus Yadav) Ram Kirpal Yadav and Misa Bharti, a Rajya Sabha MP from RJD.

A decade ago, Ram Kirpal Yadav, a self-claimed ‘Hanuman’ to Lalu Prasad, had revolted against him after being denied a ticket in favour of Misa Bharti. He joined BJP, contested and won the polls. Before that, Lalu Prasad was also defeated in 2009 Lok Sabha polls by Ranjan Prasad Yadav of Janata Dal-United. But last month, Ranjan joined RJD and has vigorously campaigned for Misa Bharti. In Patliputra, the Mahagathbandhan strength lies in the fact that it won all six Assembly seats in 2020.

Early this year, a Congress MLA from the Vikram seat joined BJP. “We are confident of defeating BJP in Patliputra as our election meetings were huge and the response on the ground is for a change”, said Shakti Yadav, an RJD leader.

Karakat

On the other side, the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation or CPI(ML) is giving tough battle to the NDA in three parliamentary seats -- Karakat, Arrah and Nalanda. The CPI(ML) candidate Raja Ram Singh in Karakat seems to have turned the tide against BJP’s ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha chief Upendra Kushwaha, a former Union minister.
Kushwaha seems to be in deep trouble due to sharp division in his caste support base among the Kushwaha community (locally known as Koeri, an OBC (Other Backward Class) agrarian caste), Dalits and Extremely Backward Castes or EBCs.

“The CPI(ML) is known for fighting on issues that concern people and enjoys a wide social support base among Kushwahas, Dalits and EBCs. Besides, its party candidate Raja Ram Singh, a farmer leader and former MLA from Obra Assembly seat in Karakat, is sure of support from RJD’s traditional support base of Muslim-Yadav as well support from Congess, the two left parties, CPI and CPI(M), and Vikashsheel Insan Party of Mukesh Sahani, son of a Mallah. This is a winning combination”, Shahnawaz Khan, a local RJD leader said.

Upendra Kushwaha’s prospects are also being damaged by the entry of a BJP rebel, the Bhojpuri film star Pawan Singh, as an independent candidate, who has been giving him sleepless nights. After Pawan Singh refused to withdraw from the fray against Kushwaha, BJP last week expelled him for contesting against the NDA candidate. During the campaign, Pawan Singh has attracted youths in the largely rural constituency for his glamour and his popular Bhojpuri songs. Some popular Bhojpuri film stars, including Khesari Lal Yadav, also campaigned for him. Pawan Singh has made it a triangular contest in Karakat, on both sides of the river Sone, known as the rice bowl of Bihar. Singh, who belongs to powerful upper caste Rajput, is likely to dent into the traditional upper caste support base of NDA. In March 2024, Pawan Singh refused to contest from Asansol Lok Sabha seat in West Bengal after BJP named him as the party nominee against Trinamool Congress incumbent MP Shatrughan Sinha, a Bollywood star, popularly known as ‘Bihari Babu’.

Arrah

In the neighbouring parliamentary constituency of Arrah in Bhojpur district, the CPI(ML) candidate Sudama Prasad has emerged as a big fighter against BJP’s incumbent MP and Union minister R K Singh, who is also a hattrick this time. In Arrah, considered a stronghold of the CPI(ML) since the 1980s, the fight is bipolar and has minimised the chances of a split in either pro-NDA or anti-NDA votes.

Arrah is a hub of lucrative illegal sand mining in river Sone. RK Singh, a former IAS officer-turned- politician, who belongs to Rajput caste, is known for engineering a calculated caste equation of other upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits in last two elections. He has reportedly also taken the help of criminal-turned-politicians belonging to the powerful Bhumihar upper caste, to back him.

A former Union home secretary, Singh had created a controversy by his statement in which he allegedly linked RSS with terror. Also, it was he who, as district magistrate in 1990, arrested L K Advani, who was leading the Ram Janmabhoomi Rath Yatra into Bihar, ordered by then Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav. But, now Singh is heavily banking on caste equations and the ‘Modi factor’ to win.

However, the CPI(ML) candidate, supported by a combination of strong social support base, has forced Singh to campaign in villages and small towns to woo voters, unlike last time.

“CPI(ML)’s own base, along with RJD’s
traditional support base is strengthened by aligning of Mukesh Sahani’s caste fishermen and boatmen, who have sizeable population on both sides of river Sone. This may give a surprise outcome this time,” Kishor Kumar, a CPI(ML) sympathiser said.

Nalanda
In the Nalanda seat, the home district of Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, CPI(ML)’s  Sandeep Saurav, a young party MLA from Paliganj Assembly seat in neighbouring Patna district, is challenging the old JD-U bastion. Saurav has made a difference by reaching out to people at their doors in villages and towns to seek votes and financial help of Rs 20 from each person.
Hundreds of leaders, workers and sympathisers of the CPI(ML), along with help from the Mahagathbandhan, have been working hard on the ground with limited resources since April for the party candidates in Karakat, Arrah and Nalanda.

Patna Sahib

The stakes are also high for BJP’s incumbent MP Ravi Shankar Prasad in Patna Sahib seat, considered a party stronghold. Prasad, a former Union minister, is also seeking re-election, but has
been facing angry protests during his campaign since last month. People are unhappy over his ‘high-flying’ style of politics and have questioned his failure to fulfil the promises made by him in the last elections.The dominant mood among people seems to be going against Prasad, who is known for his long association with the RSS.

Though Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a road show in part of Patna Sahib seat (in the heart of Patna on May 12), the first road show by any PM in elections in Patna or in Bihar, it failed to minimise anti-incumbency against Prasad.

The Congress has fielded Anshul Abhijeet against Prasad. Anshul, a PhD from Cambridge University, is contesting for the first time. He has a political legacy behind him, as he is the son of former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar and grandson of legendary Dalit leader Jagjivan Ram, a former deputy PM. Anshul’s grandmother (father’s side) Sumitra Devi was the first woman cabinet minister in Bihar. He is likely to get votes from Koeri OBCs (Kushwaha) as his father Manjul Kumar, a Supreme Court lawyer, belongs to Kushwaha community, from Dalits as his mother Meira Kumar is a veteran Dalit leader and a former IFS officer and Union minister. This likely dent in Kushwaha and Dalit votes has also worried Prasad.

Jehanabad

In Jehanabad, JD-U’s incumbent MP Chandeshwar Prasad Chandrawanshi, is also seeking re-election and has been facing angry people during his campaign. His main rival is RJD’s Surendra Prasad Yadav, a former MP and minister, known as a Bahubali (strongman), who lost the election by 1,700 votes in 2019. But the entry of Arun Kumar, a former MP, as a Bahujan Samaj Party candidate in Jehanabad, has upset the calculation by Chandrawanshi because it has now become a three-cornered contest.

Buxar

In Buxar, BJP has fielded a new face, Mithilesh Tiwary, who is contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time. He, too, is facing angry farmers who staged a long protest (500 days) demanding compensation of land acquisition for a power plant. Farmers are unhappy over the refusal of the BJP-led Central government to concede their demands. As a result, anti-incumbency against the Modi-led Central government is also working against Tiwary on the ground.

BJP chose Tiwary by denying a ticket to incumbent MP and Union minister Ashwini Kumar Choubey,
an old face, who is reportedly also unhappy and has distanced himself from the campaign in Buxar.

Tiwary’s main rival is RJD’s Sudhakar Singh, son of RJD state president, Jagdanand Singh, who is considered close to Lalu Prasad since the 1990s. Both Tiwary and Singh are MLAs of their respective party.

It appears that BJP is in serious trouble in Buxar also because Anand Mishra, a young IPS officer of 2011 batch of Assam–Meghalaya, a rebel party sympathiser, is contesting as an independent candidate. Mishra’s presence in Buxar is bound to damage BJP because it is his home district. Mishra has expressed unhappiness
with the top BJP leadership who promised him a party ticket from Buxar after he resigned from
the IPS.

Mishra has been campaigning with style in the dusty rural belt, reminding people that he left the IPS job to serve the people, something that he learnt as a RSS man since his childhood. There are reports that Mishra is not only drawing villagers, but also BJP and RSS men, who are angry over the party’s decision to replace Ashwini Choubey.

Overall, caste arithmetic will play a key role in the last phase of elections in major parts of the drought-prone region of Bihar.

NDA’s star campaigner Modi addressed several election meetings and held road shows for the eight seats in the final phase, but his so-called ‘Modi magic’ is missing. Other top BJP leaders, including Amit Shah, Union home minister Rajnath Singh, and BJP president J P Nadda have also campaigned for NDA candidates.

The Mahagathbandhan’s star campaigner Tejashwi Yadav has focused on “rozgar aur Naukri” (employment and jobs) during his extensive campaign. The issue of employment has overshadowed all other issues in Bihar. Tejashwi alone has addressed 251 election meetings, the highest by any one during the nearly two-month- long campaign.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi addressed election meetings in Patna Sahib, Patliputra and Arrah on May 27 and appealed people to vote for saving the Constitution, democracy and development of poor.

PM Modi, during his nine visits to Bihar for election campaign, has failed to reply the Opposition’s charge on employment and jobs.