Bihar: Congress' Strategy to Contest Independently in the State is Over-Ambitious, say Political Observers

Patna: Is Congress over-ambitious about its Bihar revival? Recent statements by state Congress leaders about contesting elections independently in the state have been seen as removed from the ground reality by various political analysts.

In the current trend of alliance politics across the country, the grand old party, which lost its social support base in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, hopes to embark on an 'Ekla-Chalo' strategy in the state.

Multiple statements have emerged in the last 48 hours in this matter. Bhakta Charan Das, Congress in-charge of Bihar, announced that the party would not be a part of the opposition Mahagathbandhan in the state and would contest from all 40 Lok Sabha seats in the next parliamentary polls. Das' comments were followed by Kanhaiya Kumar, who remarked that the party would form the next government in Bihar in 2025. Congress hopes to use Kumar, recently inducted into the party from the Communist Party of India (CPI), to attract youth voters in the state to strengthen the party.

These comments have been met with scepticism by the political observers, who believe that Congress, as a party, should focus on regaining its social support base rather than making tall claims.

However, political analysts also suggest that the sudden change in the tone of Congress leaders has come from Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) big-brotherly attitude towards its alliance partner. The cracks in the alliance emerged when RJD announced its candidates for the upcoming by-polls in the state. Congress was hoping that out of the two seats to go for by-polls, it would contest at least one of them. Following a war of words between the two parties, Congress fielded its candidates against RJD from the Tarapur assembly seat in Munger and Kusheshwar Asthan seat in the Darbhanga district.

Sensing trouble for the alliance, Left parties, the CPI, Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI (M)) and Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (CPI (ML)), have announced their support to RJD in the by-polls, an apparent setback for Congress.

After this setback from the other alliance partners, Congress had to seek support from Pappu Yadav, chief of Jan Adhikar Party (JAP). Yadav, a former MP with a criminal past, has unsuccessfully contested polls in recent years.

Despite that, there is near unanimity among political observers that Congress will not impact the elections despite putting all its resources.

"I see Congress contesting by-polls alone as Nura-Kusti. Congress's decision to contest by-polls results from a strategy to test its strength as the party's traditional upper caste and Dalit votes shifted to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) due to alliance politics. Besides, RJD has understood the ground reality after Congres performed poorly in the 2020 Bihar assembly polls. Congress and RJD knew that by-polls result would expose their strength and weakness," said political commentator DM Diwakar.

Diwakar, former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies, Patna, told NewsClick that it is difficult for Congress to consolidate its traditional vote bank, mainly consisting of upper caste, Dalits and Muslims.

"Congress' stand to fight next Lok Sabha polls alone will be challenging. Likely, the party may not see immediate gains. But it could help the party increase its network among the new generation of traditional voters."

Diwakar said that Congress leaders could make any claim about the party's future in the state, but the reality remains that its poor performance in the last assembly elections spoiled the chances of Mahagathbandhan to form the government.

In the Assembly polls held last year, RJD emerged as the single largest party in Bihar with 75 seats, but the alliance missed the majority mark by a few seats. At the time, Tejashwi Yadav, leader of RJD, had refrained from blaming the ally Congress for Mahagathbandhan's defeat.

The performance of Left parties had exceeded expectations, with the CPI (ML) winning 12 seats and the CPI (M) and CPI winning two seats each. The Left parties contested 29 seats and won 16 seats. On the other hand, Congress managed to win only 19 seats of the 70 contested.

Political analyst Soroor Ahmed said it will be tough for Congress because it is in poor shape in Bihar, just like Uttar Pradesh, as its social support base has now backed BJP.

"It is not easy to revive the party by going alone unless the party cuts into the BJP's upper caste and other votes. As RJD is a solid regional political force in Bihar and its social support base is more or less intact, Congress should work together in alliance with RJD to weaken and defeat the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Congress should focus more on the states where it is in a direct tussle with the BJP."

Another political observer said that it is ironic that Congress hopes to revive itself by taking help from Pappu Yadav and Kumar.

"Yadav hardly enjoys any social base, and Kumar was defeated by more than 4 lakh votes in 2019 Lok Sabha polls from Begusarai. He was also missing in the state during the recent floods and the pandemic. How can one expect that they can attract votes?"