Beyond M-Y, Akhilesh's PDA Outreach Does Wonders in UP

Lucknow: Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Akhilesh Yadav's strategic outreach to communities beyond the traditional M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) voter base, particularly his PDA (Pichada, Dalit and Alpsankhyak) plank played a pivotal role in expanding his party's electoral support. By effectively aligning with these communities and addressing their concerns, Yadav was able to broaden the appeal of SP and strengthen its position in Uttar Pradesh politics. 

The success of the opposition INDIA bloc, led by the SP, in winning 43 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in the state is indeed a remarkable turnaround, indicating a strong mandate from the electorate.

Despite the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-dominated National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, winning 36 seats, it marks a notable decline in BJP’s performance, especially considering its high-pitched communal campaign and formidable political machinery.

Additionally, the successful alliance between SP and Congress, along with a cohesive narrative against BJP on critical issues, such as reservation, the debate over proposed changes to the Constitution, unemployment, inflation and the demand for a caste census, further bolstered Yadav's electoral strategy. This alliance chemistry and shared narrative provided a united front against BJP and resonated with voters.

The SP’s electoral success in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections marks a significant turnaround for its leader, Akhilesh Yadav, after a series of setbacks since 2017. Winning 37 out of 80 seats in UP, the SP achieved its best-ever performance in the state, positioning itself as the single-largest party in the state.

This victory is particularly notable as it came at the expense of the ruling BJP, which saw its seat count reduced to 33 from 62 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The SP's emergence as the third-largest party in the country, after BJP and Congress, underscores its growing influence and appeal beyond Uttar Pradesh. This electoral outcome also reflects the shifting political dynamics and voter sentiments, indicating a renewed mandate for SP and a significant setback for BJP in one of India's most populous states.

The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which had dominated the state with a complete majority in 2007, was formally reduced to a negligible force after falling to a distant third place with zero seats and a 9.39% vote share.

VOTE SHARE INCREASE 

In the 2004 Lok Sabha polls, when the SP won 35 seats, its founder Mulayam Singh Yadav headed the government in UP. This time, the party’s success has come despite remaining out of power in the state for seven years.

Poll percentage-wise, SP attained a 33.59% vote share in 2024 against 18.11% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in UP. The Congress got 9.46% vote share against 6.36% in 2019 and 0.47% went to Trinamool Congress, which contested in Bhadohi.

In the 2022 UP Assembly polls, the SP’s vote share was 32.1% and the tally of seats went up to 111 from 47 in 2017, laying the foundation for its 2024 performance.

In the 2022 Assembly polls, SP began expanding beyond its M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) vote bank to stitch together a caste coalition of non-Yadav OBC+Yadavs+Muslims. 

Retaining this formula for the 2024 elections, Akhilesh named it PDA -- Pichada (backwards including Yadavs and non-Yadavs), Dalits and Alpsahkhyaks (minorities, largely Muslims).

Ajit Kumar Singh, an economist and director of the Giri Institute of Development Studies, said: “This election was centred on the fight between the rich and the poor. The living conditions of the poor have become poorer in the past 10 years. Farmers have complaints, and students and youth, who backed the communally Hindutva ideology, suffering from unemployment, did not vote for the ruling (BJP) government this time.”

“Dalits and backward communities, which have been supporting BJP since 2014, “are no longer with the party. The sharp dip of the vote share of BSP indicates that its core voters shifted towards INDIA bloc," Singh told NewsClick adding, that the ’Modi magic’ did not prevail in the state.

Several experts said the BJP failed to gauge the real mood of voters. In the state, where caste arithmetic continues to be relevant, BJP failed to catch the caste alignment in favour of SP-Congress.

“The people of the state could not divide on Hindu-Muslim as democracy is deep-rooted in the country. The ruling government not only failed to gauge the mood, it also failed in fulfilling the promises made during the previous elections including employment,” Sudhir Pawar, Professor, Lucknow University, told NewsClick.

BJP's ALLIES FAILED MISERABLY

In addition, BJP got too little support from NDA allies. The outspoken Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar was unable to deliver the Rajbhar votes since his son lost the Ghosi battle, while Apna Dal (Soneylal), the BJP's window to the Kurmi vote, could only win one of the two seats it fought. Likewise, Praveen Nishad, the son of Sanjay Nishad, who was expected to get support from the boatmen community, was unable to hold onto its Sant Kabir Nagar seat.

The Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), however, secured two seats in Western UP; nevertheless, they lost the crucial Muzaffarnagar seat, and farmers' ire against Union Minister Ajay Mishra Teni in Lakhimpur Kheri was not contained, leading to his defeat. Also, BJP’s ‘dynastic’ barb against SP did not cut much ice.

The grievances expressed by the youth regarding frequent paper leaks, job privatisation, and issues surrounding reservation norms in government jobs appear to have influenced their shift toward supporting the INDIA bloc. These concerns reflected broader socio-economic issues that resonated strongly with young voters, who are often directly impacted by such policies.

The raging unemployment, unpopular schemes such as Agniveer and BJP’s sheer arrogance and over-reliance on luring voters through Hindu cultural nationalism and polarising rhetoric, proved to be its undoing.

The INDIA bloc's messaging, as reflected in both the Axis My India survey and social media campaigns, seems to have resonated with the youth. The emphasis on addressing these issues and offering solutions seem to have struck a chord with young voters who were seeking tangible responses to their concerns.

Analysts connected Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity with female voters to the direct benefit transfer (DBT) programmes, which he spoke extensively about. The findings indicate that even while women made up a large portion of the state's voters than men, they were not persuaded by a single issue. In fact, their political decisions are just as difficult to understand as those of males, said analysts.