Assam Elections : Do or Die For Everyone?

Five Indian states are going to polls over the next 45 days. It’s not just the political future of these states that is under stake, but also how the country will emerge to tackle the issues it has got in hand now. Do these elections hold a great deal when it comes to how India’s polity is shaped?

Newsclick interviewed Shankar Raghuraman, Deputy Executive Editor, The Times of India to understand the implications of the outcome of these elections and its impact on the national politics. According to Raghuraman, the outcome of the elections will not have much bearing on the national politics. “The main national party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) doesn’t have a major presence in four of these five states.” Excerpts from the interview.

Rough Transcript:

Pranjal (P) - Hello and welcome to Newsclick. Today we are going to discuss about the assembly elections that are going to be held in five states in coming two months. To discuss this, we have with us Shankar Raghuraman, Deputy Executive Editor from Times Of India.

There are five states which are going to see assembly elections starting from today onwards till 16th. What is the significance of these elections and what impact will it have on the national politics?

Shankar Raghuraman (SR) - To a large extend, the significant of these election on national politics is limited. In the sense that, the main largest national party today, BJP has really has no presence to speak of in four of these five states. So whether it is in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bengal or Pondicherry, the BJP is not one of the major player. So to that extend, what happens in these four states will not have a very important barring on national politics, except to the extend that, Bengal and Kerala are very important states for the Left. So to that extend, as far as national politics are concerned, Bengal and Kerala having barring on how the Left future looks. But the real state which will make a difference to the national politics would be Assam. Because, there the BJP did extremely well in 2014, in fact emerged as a single largest party in that state. And it would be hoping to come to power in Assam. If that happens, it would be a historic moment not only for the BJP but for the national politics. Because so far, the BJP has not had a large presence in the North-East. Being able to establish such a firm foothold would be a big deal for the BJP and also having its own implications for politics.

P - But Tarun Gogoi also has been there for last three terms. What do you think BJP's coalition with AGP? Is it going to play any major role in the formation of government for BJP? Because if you even look at the exit polls, they are saying that, none of the party will reach to the half way mark.

SR - Well, I won't place too much reliance on what the polls are saying. Because in any case, some polls are suggesting the BJP will form the government there, others are suggesting that, it will be hung house. But I will not place too much reliance. We have seen in the past that, opinion polls have gone horribly wrong. But if you consider the BJP-AG alliance, there are some inherent problems in that alliance. BJP made major inroads in Assam, in the upper Assam region during the 2014 Lok Sabha election. This is the exactly the region in which AGP will also fanciate chances. In 2014, growth of the BJP happened to a large extend at the expense of the AGP. So in that sense, each of them are threat to the other. So it is not a comfortable alliance, which is the reason why there have been such open rebellion in the ranks of both the BJP and the AGP in Assam on the issue of this alliance. But clearly, the BJP feels that the alliance, the AGP will be able to bring some addition of votes to it's tally and which could make a difference between finishing second best and becoming ruling party. However there is also a contradiction in their positions on the rather remote issue of illegal migrant from Bangladesh. The AGP has been traditionally hostile not just to Muslim migrants but to all Bangladeshi migrants including Hindus. And in fact, it's appeal has been to a anti-Bengali sentiment, which treats all Bengalees are aliens. The BJP on the other hand takes a clear religious position on this saying that, Hindu migrants from Bangladesh are refugees. Because they are fleeing because of religious persecution in Bangladesh, whereas Muslim refugees from Bangladesh are illegal aliens who should be deported. Now therefore to it's position, BJP has been able to gain some foothold among say Bengali Hindus in the districts where there are large scale imigration from Bangladesh. Those sections would be very uncomfortable with the alliance with the AGP. So the alliance is problamatic both in terms of the personal gelling and in terms of the positions, being somewhat contradictory.

P - So what do you think what are the basic issues on which Assam elections going to be fought?

SR - There are several issues. One would be of-course Tarun Gogoi has tried to make it taking a que from Bihar; try to make it a 'Me versus a Outsider Modi' kind of fight. And BJP clearly reccognise that is a problem. Traditionally, they have not had any very prominent local leaders to project as Chief Minister. So they have chosen this time to project Sarbananda Sonowal who is a local and sitting MP as the Chief Ministerial face. Now in a contest between Gogoi and Sonowal, whether Sonowal will be able to hold his own, I am not too sure. And to some extend, BJP also risks the implications that they are not projecting it as a fight between Gogoi and Modi. Because they see brand Modi as having lost some of it's sheen. The issues of-course all kind of issues in these elections, because as I said illegal migrants issue always a motive issue in Assam. But that divides along those lines are not as clear as BJP would like them to be. So it is not just Muslim-illegal migrants versus the rust. That is not how the politics of the Assam works. There are tribal loyalty. There are conflicts between ethnic tribes which have been traditionally settled in those areas and adivasis from Jharkhand for instance, who work in the tea gardens. There is conflict between Bengalees who lived for centuries and Assamee speaking people. On the eastern border Nagaland and so on, there are border disputes with neighboring states. So it is a far more complex mix of identity conflicts than the BJP would like to be.

P - The way BJP was trying to project it's manifesto for the Assam elections focusing entirely on stopping of illegal migrants from the Bangladesh. And then Assam has the history of communal violence if you look at last past three years. So do you think BJP is trying to bag again on the communal politics or communal polarisation? And it also shows it's larger agenda for it's entire nation?

SR - Yes, it is definitely the case that, however much Mr. Modi might pretend that the BJP has fought elections only on the issue of good governence, there is no doubt that the election after election, there has been a dual track campaign. One is this campaign of good governence and the other is either a overt or covert communal campaign. And in specific case of Assam, that is bound to be a very important undercurrent in the election. However the risk that the BJP runs with running a blatantly communal campaign in Assam is that, it's best bet lies in the election becoming a triangular contest. Between the BJP-AGP alliance, the Congress and the AIUDF of Badruddin Ajmal. But the campaign acquire the communal colour. The more Muslims are likely to be the forces to choose between Congress and AIUDF. It is unlikely then the Muslim vote will get split in constituency after constituency. So, that is the catch-22 situation for the BJP. It's bed seems to be to raise the communal temperature but then it also consolidates the vote against itlself.

P - So what role AIUDF is going to play in the entire election?

SR - Firstly AIUDF is not a party like Congress, which has presence across the state. So it's strength is concencentrated in the areas bordering Bangladesh really. And overethere, it did very well in the 2014 election. It actually got more seats than the Congress. And the BJP got largest number of seats followed by the AIUDF and then the Congress. But that is to my mind, unlikely to replicate this time. Because people are not quite sure what position AIUDF will take. And that can work against it. So Muslims who are very uncomfortable for instance with the idea of the BJP, is in a position to form the government in Assam, do not seem to be entirely sure what role the AIUDF will play. And in that case, they may well prefer to go with the Congress. So that could work in the Congress's favour.

P - So if we look at everything, can we reach to a conclusion that, it is the Congress which is again going to come back to the power?

SR - Well, such a complex election that making any definite predictions would be foolhardy. But yes, it is certainly seems to be the case that, contrary to 2014 elections suggested, the Congress is much better place than those results would suggesting. It may well come back to power again.

P - This would be my last question. What impact it will have on national politics in terms of the seats in Rajya Sabha and how it is going to influence BJP's decision making policies?

SR - See, if it is a close contest, then in terms of the seats in the Rajya Sabha, either way the BJP can only gain a little, it can't loose what currently it has. But more importantly, after having lost, conclusively in Delhi and in Bihar, if it what again loose in Assam, then the perception that the steam has run out of the BJP's juggernaut. It could be very strongly underlined. And for the BJP, that is a far more worrying prospect than a few Rajya Sabha seats. So I think the real impact of these elections on national politics would be in terms of either confirming that the BJP have out of steam or giving the BJP some reason to hope again.

P - Especially we have elections coming in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh as well. Thanks a lot for giving us your time. 

Thank you for watching Newsclick.

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