AIADMK in an Existential Bind – But Others Not Much Better Off

Life is not immediately going to get easier for anybody in Tamil Nadu politics, except for immediate happiness over Sasikala's exit.

The Sasikala camp would be hard put, to put in place a Plan B, finding a dummy to substitute for her. She is no Jayalalitha and such loyalty is unlikely. But that is not something they can give up easily - since otherwise their entire opposition to O. Panneerselvam (OPS) becomes a mockery and makes them look like fools.

OPS camp is not much better off either. They have to work out and sell the fiction that Sasikala and her cohort is guilty, but Amma is not!! That is a hard one to sell but one that they have to try -- otherwise the rationale being the true inheritors of Amma's legacy will not be sustainable! Sasikala camp has the easier option in this (both Amma and Chinnamma are not guilty) and they will press it hard -- and OPS has to find a reply. And what will the holed-up legislators donow, remains to be seen -- OPS cannot win them over easily precisely because of this bind.

The DMK is in an easier spot, but not by much. They have the option of pressing the case against both Jayalalitha and Sasikala, as well as the ADMK as a whole -- as a corrupt dispensation. But they will be (or should be certainly) wary of angering voters so soon after Amma's demise which seemed to indicate such enormous popularity and has served to bolster her posthumous reputation. But they cannot wait indefinitely, withoutsaying anything, as if the matter of who is in power is something of little concern -- if they do so, they will risk being marginalised, sitting on the sidelines, while the main political battle of the day rages on. And in any case, unless the ADMK collapses completely, including their legislature party, elections are far away. Such a collapse of course opens the door to many possibilities of new coalitions and so on (without fresh elections).Such possibilities also carry immediately unforeseeable consequences. In the longer term, the DMK looks set to gain -- but its own share of corruption cases will be due for judgement sometime in the future.Though perhaps they are not such open and shut cases as with Sasikala.

It is not clear what smaller parties like the PMK and the MDMK etc. can make of this (or Vijayakanth's outfit and so on).It will not be too much, considering their lack of an all-TN presence on the ground.

It is also not clear what the Congress in its sorry state in TN or the miniscule BJP (for all its noise-making) can get out of this.

The Left, in its current state, cannot also gain in immediate terms. But it is a splendid opportunity for them to rid themselves of the not-always-visible ball-and-chain of Dravidian ideology that shackles them and craft and present a new vision for Tamil Nadu and Tamil society. But it will require hard work and courage, to do this. Going back and revitalising the work of their mass organisations - especially the rural poor and the working class (both formal and informal) related ones - as well as stepping up their work amongst women and Dalits is a sure fire starting point. But it must be animated by a radical, secular, modern vision. A call to return to the "true" or "original" roots of the Dravidian movement, however it is phrased, would be a tragic error.

Beyond all this, is of course the unpredictable - there is little one can say (as Donald Rumsfeld famously remarked) about "unknown unknowns".

And as for today, let us enjoy the sight of a political mafia for once getting its just desserts!

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick.