UP Elections: West in a Fix as Jats and Muslims Mull Between BJP and SP-RLD Alliance

Kairana/Muzaffarnagar/Baghpat/Mathura/Shamli: A lot has happened in western Uttar Pradesh, and a lot can happen. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders have been denied entry in several villages and have faced the heat of voters owing to various issues ranging from the farmers' agitation to inflation as the campaigning for the first phase of the elections ended on Tuesday evening.

Still, the discussion and dilemma amongst the voters of western Uttar Pradesh continue. The election arithmetic in the wild west looks tight, but the alliance appears to have got an edge over the saffron ship. A major chunk of the Muslims seems determined to bring the Samajwadi Party back to power, but the Jats are caught between voting as farmers and Hindus. If the Jats vote as farmers, then the BJP would see a dent in its vote bank, but if they think of themselves as Hindus, the alliance will be on the service lane.

The alliance has been trying everything to bring the Jats and Muslims together as this combination can give any party an edge. In all the rallies, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief Jayant Chaudhary has been talking about the Bhaichaara (unity) factor and trying to bring both the communities, which were at loggerheads against each other post-Muzaffarnagar riots.

Notably, for the Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance, the vote transfer will be the biggest factor in the state's western territory and the tactics of fielding SP candidates on several RLD symbols on several seats one major reason of getting the votes. The cycle brigade very well knows the importance of vote transfer with its bitter experience in alliance with Congress in the 2017 assembly election and 2019 Lok Sabha (general) elections.

What Voters Think

Every morning a group of farmers gathers at a shop outside the Kislaya Chaupal with a Hukka, and they start discussing the elections in their area.

The elections in their constituency, which falls in the first phase, is due on February 10. The reason these small farmers gather every day is the dilemma they are in for whom to vote for, and it would not be wrong to say that there is dissatisfaction amongst the people regarding the BJP, but it is still one of the alternatives they would vote for.

Mohammad Iliyas, a small farmer owing around five bighas of land, in an adamant voice advocates for the BJP, saying the government had paid the cane dues on time. Before his sentence could be completed, he was interrupted by Birendra Singh, a Jat man belonging to the Malik khap. Birendra, in his argument, said that the saffron party did not care for the lives of farmers who died during the farmer's agitation.

"You care about the dues of sugarcane but you did not see how the farmers were treated during the entire protest and we were dubbed as Khalistani, Atankwadi and what now. Do not forget you are a Muslim and the kind of treatment your community has received," said Birendra. In reply, Iliyas said in a very low tone, "To feed children at home, we need money, and we need to rise above Hindu-Muslims."

About 37 kilometres from this spot lies the Jaula village, the village of Ghulam Mohammad Jaula, who was dubbed a hero for uniting the Jats and Muslims when Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) leader Rakesh Tikait cried during the farmers' agitation. The mythical unity is now under question because these villagers are in a dilemma as one-fifth of the population is not in the mood to vote for the alliance candidate who happens to be a non-Muslim. Interestingly, the sitting MLA is also a non-Muslim candidate. However, this time people were expecting the alliance to field a Muslim face watching the large chunk of Muslim voters there.

Ghulam Mohammad Jaula, an ex-BKU leader who tried to bridge the unity between Jats and Muslims, which broke due to the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, said that this time the Muslims were going to vote in unison for the alliance, and they were determined to make Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav the chief minister of the state once again.

Back in Muzaffarnagar, Chaudhary Birendra Singh, a staunch supporter of the idea of Hindutva and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, said that the Jats in the region were very angry with the ruling government because of issues like MSP, agitation of the farmers, and also the sitting MLAs.

"There is an anti-incumbency in the entire western region because the sitting legislators never worked and did not go to the people who voted for them. The anger is not much against PM Modi or CM Yogi, but it is against the local leaders, and this is going to cost the Bharatiya Janata Party this time," he said. He added, "This time, the election is between the pro-BJP and anti-BJP."

"I am very sure that the BJP will not be able to sweep the elections as they did in 2014, 2017, or even 2019, because they do not have the Hindu-Muslim factor this time. Many pro-BJP people have turned against the party in deep rural pockets owing to various issues, including the year-long farmers' protest," he claimed.

In the 2012 Assembly elections, the BJP won only 11 of the 70 seats in the region. That year the SP bagged 25 seats, the Bahujan Samaj Party 23, the Congress, the RLD three, and others.

In 2017, the BJP won 51 of the region's 70 assembly seats. The SP won 15, the Congress two, the BSP and the RLD one each.