COVID-19: Has the Lockdown Succeeded in Stopping the Novel Coronavirus?

On May 2, the all powerful Ministry of Home Affairs issued an order extending the countrywide lockdown by another two weeks, till May 17. It was the second extension, after Prime Minister Modi first announced the three-week long lockdown on March 24 at a four hour notice to Indians. In that dramatic speech, he had said that the extreme measure was necessary to break the chain of transmission of the contagious virus, and the best way to vanquish the disease. He had called upon the people to show resolve and restraint and think of everybody’s health. In his second speech extending the lockdown till May 3, he called for more sacrifice by the people in the larger good, while asserting that they would surely forgive him for causing all the misery and trouble that the ongoing lockdown had brought upon them. Again, the sense conveyed was that of a brahmastra being used to defeat the enemy virus. But, yet again the lockdown has been extended, although there will be graded easing. There is confusion about how exactly this easing will work and who will decide how much is good. But still – India is in a kind of grey zone now.

But the big question is this: has this lockdown succeeded in curbing the spread of the novel coronavirus? If you look at the data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in India, it is clear that the disease has not been curbed or restrained. Many argue that its pace of spreading has not been as fast as in other countries. But that reasoning is faulty because there are still other countries with a similar slow pace of transmission, yet they didn’t have a lockdown.

Have a look at the daily new cases since March 24, the day the lockdown was first announced in the chart below. The data has been collated by NewsClick’s Data Analytics team from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare.

On March 24, 102 new cases were detected. On May 2, the number of new cases reported had shot up to a staggering 2,411, the highest till date. Clearly, the lockdown has been unable to prevent disease transmission. 

It is being argued that testing has expanded so more cases are being found. But that’s a spurious line of reasoning because the proportion of positive cases to all tested cases has been roughly 4% all through. 

Why It Failed

Gross mismanagement and shortsighted planning is the key reason why such a massive lockdown – with such high cost – has failed. In the first place, advance notice of the lockdown should have been given, with arrangements for transporting migrant workers, students and other temporary travelers to get back home. Since 54 days had already passed since the first case was reported in India, procurement of protective gear, testing kits and diverse medical equipment should have already been in advanced stages. Widespread testing would have identified infected persons, and tracing of contacts would have isolated the emerging clusters. 

The need for harvesting rabi crops, the need for ensuring food for all, the need for wages payment for lockdown period – all this should have been addressed and resolved through injecting funds from the central kitty rather than shifting the load on to the state governments or the people themselves. This would have probably meant a graded lockdown in the beginning rather than starting with a complete and onerous countrywide lockdown.

Also read: In India, Workers Being Sucked Into a Game of Death

But the Modi government arguably missed the opportunity it was given. It did practically nothing for almost two months, apart from screening of international travelers. The leaky chaotic and agonising lockdown that followed was thus doomed to fail.

Crucial Test Awaits India

In the coming weeks, two aspects of the crisis are going to come to a head. First, the spread of the disease will become clear. If it explodes, like it has in many countries, then a pedaling back to a more stringent lockdown will be the only potential path left. Many scientists are predicting that restrictions like this lockdown only postpones the crisis. So this possibility is very much on the table and even now, the government is not fully prepared for it.

The second aspect is the economic situation of the people. April wages have to be paid within the first week of May. All reports from industrial areas indicate that employers will not pay these wages, at least not in full. This will lead to an explosive situation as workers have been told by the government (including the PM himself) that they will be paid full wages for the lockdown period. Already, workers and their families are in the throes of very precarious conditions with money running out, government-run public distribution system not meeting the demand, and financial support or social security virtually non-existent. 

Similarly, farmers’ lives will face a crisis because the harvested crop needs to be sold. Currently, it appears that the food grain crops are being held back in the absence of an efficient procurement machinery. But farmers can’t hold on forever. They will have to sell the produce willy-nilly, probably at much lower prices than the minimum support prices. This will seriously damage their already falling living standards.

And, then there are the millions of other workers in the informal sector or employees, or self employed, that have been left without any earnings for over a month. Some easing of lockdown restrictions may bring relief but it will only be partial and insufficient. 

The Modi government appears to be thinking that grand plans, backed by police and PR exercises are sufficient to navigate these treacherous times. They may well be in for a rude shock in the days to come.

[Data collation by Peeyush Sharma and Pulkit Sharma]