MP Assembly Polls: Is CM Chouhan Facing Toughest Election of His Life?

The Jan Ashirwad Yatra of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, launched to seek voter’s blessings ahead of assembly polls due on November 28, ended abruptly last week. Union Minister and state election in-charge Dharmendra Pradhan announced the culmination on October 26, after the poor show in Jabalpur and Gwalior.

The yatra (pilgrimage), which had begun on July 14, 2018 from Ujjain, was scheduled to cover all 230 assembly constituencies of the state, and CM Chouhan was to address 700 public rallies. However, it ended up covering only 187 assembly constituencies and 500 public rallies, owing to the poor public response, especially after the announcement of polling date.   

Soon after, the party announced the launch of Janadesh (public mandate) Yatra from October 31, 2018. Chouhan will be the lead campaigner of this yatra.

Since inception of the Jan Ashirwad Yatra, the opposition, Congress, has been repetitively alleging that the CM has been using the government machinery to draw the crowd, and it will go down as the election date will be announced. Seemingly, this allegation has turned out to be true.  

To woo the 1.30 crore youth voters, of which, 35 per cent are first-time voters, the BJP had organised ‘Nav Matdata (new voters) Yuva Town Hall’ on October 28 across the state. During this event, Chouhan addressed the young voters through video conferencing in one go. However, the event got a lukewarm response, as not many voters did turn up. On some places, according to the media reports, the party workers brought the school children to fill the vacant seats.

In a 75-minute speech, the CM promised to create 10 lakh jobs each year. He also said that the government will monitor if the youth are satisfied with their jobs or not.

However, the state assembly data is a mockery of CM Chouhan’s ambitions. According to the data, from 2003 to 2017, the state government created only 2,46,612 jobs. Of them, 2,27, 386 jobs came from private sector, while a meagre 19, 226 were generated by the government. In its 15-year regime, the BJP government has only succeeded in creating 2,46,612 jobs, and now, the CM is claiming to generate 10 lakh jobs in a year – implying 50 lakh jobs in next five years, if voted to power. Comparing it with the government’s track record so far, the current announcement can be seen as political jumla to woo the youth voters.

The BJP had received a lukewarm response in the latest ‘Karyakarta Mahakumbh’ held on September 25 as well. Of one crore party workers in the state – as per the saffron party’s claim – less than 3 per cent workers turned up for the event.

BJP’s three major political campaigns to woo voters and party workers before the assembly polls got a lukewarm response in comparison to its 2008 and 2013 campaigns. The recent yatra was not only a poor show, but CM Chouhan also faced voters’ ire, especially from farmers, Dalits and youths, for failing to fulfill their promises even after having power for 15 years.

The farmers

Farming is an important occupation in the state, and the farmers from the state are anguished with the state government for the crashing prices of crops even after the launch of Bhavantar Bhugtan Scheme last year.

Moreover, the clean chit to the police by JK Jain commission, constituted to probe the death of six farmers who fell prey to the bullets of police on June 6, 2017, while demanding implementation of Swaminathan Commission report in Mandsaur has added fuel to the fire.

Trader community

Trader community, which was expected to support the BJP, is in a paddy with the economic policies of the Centre and the state government.

The traders from the state’s financial capital – Indore – are highly disappointed with both the governments. ‘Back to back reforms within short period – Demonetisation and GST – has chocked their businesses,’ claim traders.

As a result, the trading community of the state is perhaps looking at the Congress as a ray of hope to save their businesses. In a road show on October 29, Congress President Rahul Gandhi drew a huge crowd, as he attacked the ruling BJP for corruption, demonetisation and complex GST. His rally was much successful in comparison to CM Chouhan’s and BJP Chief Amit Shah’s recent Indore rally. It is worth mentioning that the BJP hold eight out of nine seats of Indore region.

SC/ST voters

Madhya Pradesh has the largest chunk of Scheduled Tribes (STs) population in the country with 21 per cent (compared to the 9 per cent of India’s population). And, they have 47 reserved seats in 230 seated assembly. In this situation, tribal voters are the key to the poll, but they seem frustrated with the BJP.

The Dalit community was already fed up with the rise in the cases of Dalit atrocities since the BJP stormed to power at the Centre in 2014. But, April 2, 2018, Bharat Bhandh was the deciding day for them. During the Bandh, declared by the Dalit groups, against the Supreme Court’s March 20 verdict over SC/ST Atrocities Act 1989, eight persons – all Dalits – were killed in the clashes between the Dalits and the upper caste groups in Madhya Pradesh.

After the incident, the state government booked hundreds of Dalit youths and leaders, and sent them behind the bars, but no action has been taken against the upper caste people, who were responsible for the death of the eight Dalit youths. The double-faced behaviour of the state government has irked the Dalit community.

Moreover, Chouhan’s recent statement against the SC/ST Atrocities Act, 1989 has added fuel to the fire. After the upper caste protest, he had tweeted, “No arrest will be made on SC/ST complaint before enquiry,” which is against the provisions of the Atrocities Act.

These incidents have deeply divided the upper and the lower caste groups in the state, and it is likely to affect both the Congress and the BJP in the imminent assembly polls.

In 2013, the BJP secured 31 of the 47 seats, and even in overwhelmingly tribal constituencies (with more than 80 per cent tribal population), the party registered significant victories. But, in current scenario, winning these tribal seats will be an uphill task for the ruling party.

Moreover, the emergence of a tribal front, Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS), and its influence over 80 tribal dominated seats will also affect the saffron party.  

These are just a few examples of how CM Chouhan is straining every nerve to woo the voters, but all his efforts are going south. Farmers, youth, Dalits, traders and the upper caste voters are highly disappointed with the saffron party after 15 years of its rein and, are perhaps looking for a change.