A Momentous Election Ends with Polling in Last Phase Today

Polling ends today (June 1) for the 2024 General Election which will surely go down as one of the turning points in India’s colourful electoral history. Votes have already been cast for 485 seats out of a total of 543 that make up the Lok Sabha, and in one seat a candidate got elected unopposed. So, 486 seats are done and dusted with, in an arduous and hot election that started with the first round of polling 43 days ago.

This last phase has seats spread over seven states and one Union Territory – Uttar Pradesh and Punjab (13 seats each); West Bengal (nine seats); Bihar (eight seats); Odisha (six seats); Himachal Pradesh (four seats); Jharkhand (three seats); and the Union Territory of Chandigarh (one seat).

In Uttar Pradesh, the 13 seats make up the eastern-most belt stretching north to south, from Maharajganj in the terai on Nepal’s border to Robertsganj in the southernmost corner of UP. This is a densely populated cauldron of caste divisions, extreme backwardness and a largely agrarian economy.

In the last election in 2019, nine of these seats were won by Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), two by BJP’s ally Apna Dal (Soneylal), an outfit claiming following among the Kurmis, an Other Backward Classes (OBC) community,  and the remaining two by the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), contesting in alliance with Samajwadi Party (SP).

This time round, SP is in alliance with Congress as part of the larger opposition INDIA bloc. In addition to Apna Dal, BJP has roped in Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP), a regional outfit claiming to represent the OBC Rajbhar community, and the Nishad Party, which claims to represent Nishad/Mallahs, another OBC community. Ranged against this multi-caste alliance is the SP with massive base in the region among the dominant OBC community of Yadavs, and Muslims. However, interest has been focused on BSP which used to have a considerable following among Dalit communities, mainly the predominant Jatavs. There has been a palpable decline in BSP’s support due to its wishy-washy policy toward BJP and where this splintering base will go to is an important question. Ground reports suggest that a larger chunk of these Dalit communities may support the SP-Congress alliance.

In Bihar, polling will take place in eight seats stretching from Patna to Sasaram in the south-western corner of the state. All these seats were won by BJP (5) and its ally Janata Dal-United (3) in the last election in 2019. This time the battle is tighter with the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-Left alliance (part of INDIA bloc) running neck to neck on a plank of economic issues, chiefly, unemployment and price rise.

As the Assembly elections of 2020 had shown, and the current campaign has confirmed, Bihar’s voters are disillusioned with BJP and its key ally JD(U) due to these issues. There is a decline in the popularity of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his JD(U) due to constant switching of sides between BJP and the opposition.

Bengal and Odisha Are Crucial

Another crucial battle is on the cards in West Bengal where nine seats are going to polls in this phase. These include Kolkata’s Uttar and Dakshin constituencies and southward till the Sunderbans. Last time, the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, had swept all these seats. BJP and the Congress-Left alliance (part of INDIA bloc) are vying for making a dent in this belt.

In Odisha’s northern belt, BJP had won two seats in the last election while the remaining four had gone to the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The BJP is making an all-out effort to gain seats in this eastern state in order to compensate for any losses in northern states. Assembly elections are also being held simultaneously and the stakes are high.

However, Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik,77, and his BJD have adopted a feisty stance, taking on the Prime Minister’s repeated barbs. His latest comment on setting up an enquiry committee to find out why Patnaik’s health has deteriorated is a disingenuous attempt to highlight Patnaik’s age and ailments among the voters.

Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha seats will all go to polls in this phase. Last time, the BJP won two while its ally, the Shiromani Akali Dal won another two. Eight seats were won by Congress and one by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). This time, the SAD has broken with BJP and are in the fray on their own. The two INDIA bloc allies, AAP and Congress, are also pitted against each other. AAP had won the 2022 Assembly polls with a thumping majority and it hopes to get the benefit of a populist state government. But the fragmented, multi-cornered fight has rendered predictions difficult.

BJP Weighed Down by Its Record

In this last phase of polling, the baggage that BJP is carrying is clearly weighing it down. This is the weight of its disastrous economic policies which have caused persistent unemployment, price rise, stagnating incomes and falling living standards across the board, even as the top echelons of society become super rich.

Added to this is the hubris of the party that called for a target of over 400 seats which was interpreted as a drive to finally amend the Constitution. This caused widespread fear about the snatching away of reservations for Dalits, Adivasis and OBCs. In an unprecedented development, the fear of dismantling of constitutional framework and democracy has become an electoral issue that has percolated down to villages.

The BJP’s desperate attempts to rescue a campaign that was sliding out of its hands by increasing recourse to toxic and blatant communal statements has also not gone down well. Although a decade of this communal propaganda has spread division on religious lines deep in society, especially in the northern states, this ploy has been unable to draw any new supporters, even as the economic issues were inexorably eating away its earlier electoral support base.

Thus, in the last phase of polling, too, BJP and its allies are fighting with their back to the walls. The people now await the results, to be declared after counting on June 4.