Mizoram Elections: A Repeat of Karnataka or of Meghalaya?

Though the opinion polls released by the national press have predicted a tough fight between the Congress and Mizo National Front (MNF) with a likelihood of a split verdict whose outcome will be decided by the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), the assessment made by the Frontier Despatch team – an Aizawl-based investigative weekly – does not conform to this view. What transpires is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has a good chance of winning two seats, one in Palak and the other in Tuichawng. The ZPM is unlikely to play as crucial a role as is being attributed to it, and the idea of a fractured verdict is equally unlikely to occur.

Both the Congress and the MNF are reportedly neck and neck in the race. The ZPM – which consists of the Mizoram People’s Conference (MPC), the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) and the Zoram Exodus Movement (ZPM) – however, does not have as large a presence on the ground, which is why it is not being projected as a serious contender. However, in the 2013 election, the MPC and the ZNP won 6.15 per cent and 17.42 per cent of the votes. Together, the two parties bring to the ZPM a likelihood of gaining at least around 20 per cent of the votes.

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The BJP which has never been able to gain more than 2.5 per cent of the votes – which it did during its debut in 1998 – in Mizoram is ambitiously contesting 39 seats. However, the only two seats that they may gain are in the two constituencies of Tuichawng and Palak where Chakmas and Maras form a majority of the respective populations. The saffron party’s odds here are not predicated on a development agenda or on Hindutva, but rather on the strength of the individual contesting candidates.

The elephant in the room is whether the BJP will succeed in pulling off a Meghalaya by forming a post-poll alliance with all the non-Congress parties, despite winning a negligible number of seats. Or whether the Congress will put past differences aside to ally with a former foe to stake a claim at the government. Considering the past experience of the Chakma Autonomous District Council (CADC), where the Congress and the BJP formed an alliance to keep the MNF out, which former foe the Congress allies with can be quite a mystery.

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As for the likelihood of a Meghalaya repeat, the MNF in the past has aligned itself with the MPC to stake a claim at government formation. The MNF has also been a part of the BJP’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Parliament, and is a part of the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA). Thus, an alliance of all non-Congress parties is also equally likely. On the other hand, the MNF has won the Congress’s tactician in the state over its side. R Lalzirliana’s switching over from the Congress may prove to be a blessing for the MNF, as he may be able to win over the candidates from the minority parties to join the MNF.

However, as per the assessment of the Frontier Despatch, a fractured verdict is unlikely, therefore the question of a Karnataka or Meghalaya depends on whether it will be the Congress or the MNF who will cross the 20-seat mark.