Meghalaya Polls: A new Coalition Likely Based on Which Sangma Carries the day

Kolkata: The conclusion of the nomination exercise for the 60-member-Meghalaya Assembly election to be held on February 27 was revealing in many aspects. The Meghalaya Democratic Alliance government led by the National People’s Party (NPP) of Conrad Sangma, who is the chief minister, will be in office constitutionally until the electoral exercise paves the way for a new cabinet. But, what stands out is that politically the coalition has already disintegrated.

Among the coalition constituents, not only NPP, but also each of the other MDA parties – United Democratic Party (UDP), People’s Democratic Front (PDF), Hill State People’s Democratic Party (HSPDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – have decided to go solo. The majority has eluded Meghalaya since 1978. It was similar after the 2018 elections. Conrad’s NPP, which had got 19 seats, outsmarted the Mukul Sangma-led Congress, which had emerged as the single largest party with 21 seats. Conrad stitched a coalition with two legislators of BJP, six of UDP, four of PDF, two of HSPDP and a few independents; he manoeuvred a majority and formed the MDA government.

In those circumstances, even the two legislators of the BJP proved crucial to Conrad, whose party automatically became a partner in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) at the Centre. For the BJP, even with poor electoral performance – it had contested 47 seats -- it was a chance to be in another Northeastern state ministry. The disintegration of the Congress legislature party began in November 2021 when Mukul, unhappy with some decisions of the high command, jumped ship with 11 other legislators and joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC) of Mamata Banerjee. Overnight, the TMC became the main Opposition in the Assembly.

Going by how national, regional and even small local parties have approached the 2023 Assembly elections, it is likely that Meghalaya could see a different coalition taking shape to grab power.

This is as much because of the TMC fighting all 60 seats as other players fielding as many candidates. The others include the NPP, Congress and BJP. The obvious chief ministerial faces are Conrad of NPP and Mukul of TMC. The two Sangma families are prominent long-time adversaries in the Garo Hills. Depending upon post-result engineering, the Meghalaya electorate could see a Sangma versus Sangma fight for chief ministership and both of them have repeatedly claimed during campaigns that they will be the strong factors in the Khasi and Jaintia Hills.

The Congress sees the election as an opportunity to revive its fortunes. It is being led by Shillong Lok Sabha member Vincent H Pala, who is also the state party chief and is himself a candidate. Pala told NewsClick the party has fielded freshers with good academic backgrounds on 43 seats. The rest are old faces.

Backing the BJP’s decision to fight on all seats, state BJP chief Earnst Mawrice told NewsClick, “The party has seen robust growth and that has emboldened us”.

The number of candidates put up by other parties are – 45 from UDP, 11 from HSPDP and six from PDF. Two new outfits – Voice of the People Party and KAM (which calls itself a democratic platform) – have put up 16 and three candidates, respectively.

As for manifestos, TMC one bears a strong imprint of Mamata Banerjee’s cash transfer-based incentives that are in force in West Bengal. Improvement in urban and rural infrastructure, stress on spreading education and expanding healthcare facilities have also been promised.

The NPP has claimed it will reinforce its “Focus and Focus Plus” welfare schemes for the financial empowerment of households. The promotion of self-help groups will be emphasised further.

Meghalaya’s performance in the implementation of MGNREGA and PMGSY has been appreciated by New Delhi and the state will aim to improve upon it. The NPP-led coalition has provided political stability with a proven governance record, observed NPP general secretary Nihim Dalbot Shira speaking to NewsClick.

The highlights of the Congress action-intent document are: free education to every girl child from kindergarten to 12th standard, free health care scheme, free roof for every BPL household and MSP for ginger, turmeric, broomstick, black pepper and other farm produce. Healthcare scheme and MSP details are to be made known soon.

Charges and counter-charges continue to mark the campaigns of TMC and NPP leaders – the former contends the fight is only with the latter and other parties in the fight are of little consequence. For TMC, the star campaigners are Mamata and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee. The electioneering is being coordinated and supervised by West Bengal minister and veteran politician Manas Bhuyan. The party has also engaged an I-PAC team, its old consultant, but has kept the matter under wraps. The TMC supremo and general secretary Abhishek are stressing that voters can vote out an incompetent, corrupt government and effect a change with a TMC government.

Bhuyan told NewsClick that these five years, Meghalaya has suffered and gone down the development index because of a non-functional government. The delivery record has been poor. About the notion that his party has a presence only in the Garo Hills, which accounts for 24 seats and that it is not a factor in the Khasi and the Jaintia Hills which together account for 36 seats. The minister termed it a wrong notion and asserted that the TMC will certainly do well in the Garo Hills and put up a respectable show in the two other hill segments.

With Mamata and Abhishek choosing silence over the ruling side’s jibe that TMC is a Bengali party and its leaders are outsiders, Mukul responded: “It is a malicious propaganda; they are making racial remarks.” The state’s ruling party leaders have referred to Mamata calling BJP leaders who went to West Bengal to campaign for the 2021 Assembly elections as “bohiragata” – the Bengali word for outsiders.

TMC has sought to queer the pitch for Conrad, declaring that if the party comes to power, it will revisit the MoU signed in New Delhi on March 29, 2022, with Assam for resolving the five-decade-old border dispute in six of the 12 disputed areas. Union Home Minister Amit Shah was present on the occasion. Conrad and Assam’s Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma have also resolved to settle the dispute early in the remaining six areas.

Mukul has targeted the MoU saying there is no give and take. In an interview published in The Hindu on March 18 last year, he termed it as an instance of transfer of property that belongs to the people of Meghalaya. The state was created by bringing together areas under the united Khasi and Jaintia Hills and Garo Hills autonomous councils.

“The land belonged to the clans and was notified before Independence. How could you sign the agreement when the land belonged to the people, and not you?” asked TMC state president Charles Pyngrope, adding what the hurry was to go for a deal. The matter should have been carefully studied to see that Meghalaya’s interest was preserved, he said.

Discussions NewsClick had with informed quarters suggested suspicion in the Opposition camp that the state CM had acted under pressure from the BJP-led Centre and his Assam counterpart Sarma. The Assam CM has grown influential after he became the convener of the North-East Democratic Alliance.

Conrad has rejected all allegations saying it is only proper to take risks to sort out long-pending disputes. It makes no sense to keep thinking about political risks and allow disputes to linger. He has asked the Opposition to remember that “there is never a perfect solution but we have tried to move towards the best solution,” The Hindu on February 15 quoted him as saying in an interview. There is widespread grievance among the people that the Sangma ministry has not been able to facilitate the scientific resumption of coal mining, on which thousands of workers in large parts of the Khasi and Jaintia hills depend for their livelihood. The stalemate has been persisting for several years.

However, on one issue, Conrad has been able to corner Mukul. TMC’s chief minister-face is fighting from two seats – Songsak and Tikrikilla; he has also shifted to Songsak from his usual constituency of Ampati. Neither TMC nor Mukul hhasreacted to the incumbent chief minister’s charge that this shows Mukul Sangma’s lack of confidence and makes TMC’s claim of being a major political force ring hollow.

It remains to be seen which Sangma carries the day in Meghalaya – the abode of clouds. BJP’s performance may be a pointer to the shape of things to come. With almost 75% of the population being Christians, the church remains a factor. The possibility of Congress emerging as a factor is also being seen by political watchers because it has fielded over 40 freshers with good academic background and clean image. The party had done fairly well last time but became a victim of large-scale defections. Going by the evolving situation, it seems a new coalition is quite likely.