The Honduras deadlock continues

The talks brokered by the Organisation of American states (OAS) delegation in Honduras has become deadlocked over the key issue – the restitution of the Zealya Presidency. This is the central to the San Hose Accords and the consensus within OAS and indeed the international community. Roberto Micheletti and the coup leaders around him have till now refused to accept this, leading to the failure of the Arias initiative backed by OAS and deadlocking the current round of negotiations as well.

The Michelleti regime’s hope is that if they can stonewall this issue and conduct an election in November end, the world might then put this chapter behind them and accept the results of the elections. The problem in this strategy is that a legitimate election in November demands some degree of normalcy and this is what the coup makers have failed to provide.

The return of President Zealya to the capital Tegucigalpa and taking shelter in the Brazilian Embassy effectively changed the situation on the ground in Honduras. With Zealya supporters marching to the Brazilian Embassy to greet their leader, the coup leaders cracked down on the country and suspended key constitutional provisions, declaring an emergency. They also surrounded the Embassy, cut it off its communications and threatened to march into it and arrest Zealya. Brazil’s angry response and the UN Security Council resolution condemning the attacks on the Brazilan Embassy, effectively put paid to that tactics. President Lula also contemptuously dismissed the coup leaders demand that either Brazil provides asylum to Zealya in Brazil or hand him over to the “authorities”, saying that he does not negotiate with coup makers.

The last straw for the Micheletti regime is the rejection of the state of emergency by the Election Commission of Honduras. The original decree of the Micheletti regime was to have the state of emergency in place till two weeks before the elections. The Election Commission stated that no free and fair elections could be conducted under these conditions. Though Micheletti claims that the state of emergency has been lifted, the Honduras media is still under its yoke and Radio Globo and Channel 36, the media organisations opposed to the coup are yet to start functioning normally and ban against protests is still in place.

Why is the Honduras coup such an important event in Latin America? For most Latin Americans, the 50’s and 60’s were decades where any opposition to Pax Americana, the United Fruit Company or ITT meant military regimes, torture, disappearances and complete loss of civil liberties. The last three decades have seen the reversal of this and slow trek back to democracy and rule of law. This, the Latin Americans are not willing to give up. For them, Honduras was not just a coup in a small and insignificant Central American republic, but bringing back the military regimes and reversing the will of the people. For Latin America, this was the line that they were drawing on the sand – this coup shall not pass.

The Obama Administration has been caught in a complete bind. The State Department is unlikely to have been ignorant about the coup and would have given its tacit support. President Zealya had switched from a centrist figure when he was elected and thrown in his lot with left in Latin America, even joining the ALBA group of countries lead by Hugo Chavez and Venezuela. Though the Obama Administration joined the general condemnation of the coup, they were also willing to provide Micheletti regime the time it needed to stabilise itself.

Contrary to the reports in the international press, the constitutional reforms that Zealya was pushing for was not about another term for him, but a new constituent assembly to give legal protection to workers, women, and minorities. However, The Micheletti regime, supported by the Republican Right and believing that the US would not move against them, rejected the Arias mediation supported by the entire OAS. The US Administration also condemned Zealya’s attempts to return, which Lewis Amselem, the current US envoy to OAS echoed as “irresponsible” and “foolish” after his successful return. Incidentally, Lewis Amselem has a rather gory past, with his links to the Gutamalan death squads in the 80’s, when he was in the US Embassy there. With the Obama Administration unable to provide legitimacy to the coup in the face of united response of the entire Latin American Governments, and unwilling to cut off their investments in the Honduras establishment, they have effectively ceded the leadership on this issue to the OAS and Brazil.

The last ditch battle now is for the Micheletti regime to see if they can convert President Zealya to a mere figurehead for the few days that now remain of his term and escape the consequences of the coup. They also partially averted the constitutional reforms for now, as President Zealya has already conceded this demand during the San Jose accords. This is what is being played out in Tegucigalpa now. Though Zealya had given time till 15th October for the negotiations, the meetings seem to be continuing with all outstanding issues settled except this. However, this was the key issue right from the beginning. As we write now, two sets of proposals have been made public. The Micheletti proposal wants to refer “the pretence of citizen Jose Manuel Zelaya Rosales to return to the Presidency of the Republic, we condition our accord on the institutional criteria of the Supreme Court, as the entity charged constitutionally with the application of the law.” In other words, the Supreme Court will now decide whether he is to be restored to Presidency. President Zealya has asked that this be done by the Congress. Interestingly, the supposed legitimacy of the Honduras coup is the powers of the Congress to depose the President, which almost all legal authorities have stated does not exist under the Honduras constitution. Strange indeed that Micheletti should now seek the Supreme Court’s opinion for reversing a decision that the Congress claimed it had powers to do!

Though the Micheletti regime still claims that it is the only legitimate authority and will conduct the November elections, come what may, it is increasingly isolated, both at home and abroad. Even the US has now made clear that elections held under such conditions cannot be recognised and the UN has already withdrawn from the elections. Its only supporters internationally is the Republican right in Washington – all the rest of the world have condemned the coup and asked for Zealya’s restoration. The failure of the negotiations will only isolate the regime even further. The writing is on the wall for Micheletti and co, the question is only do they have the political literacy to read it.