Gujarat Polls: 25 Seats That May Decide Fate Of Gujarat

After the Congress accepted the demand of giving reservation to his community in a “special category”, Patidar quota agitation leader Hardik Patel formally extended support to the opposition party on Wednesday for the Gujarat Assembly elections.

The Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) leader said that reservation formula given by the Congress for his community will be over and above the 50 percent quota for the SC, ST and OBCs.

“My fight in Gujarat is against the BJP and that is why we will directly or indirectly support Congress (in the elections) as it has accepted our demand for reservation,” he added.

This development comes as a shot in the arm for the grand old party in the upcoming assembly elections in the state. And,it is certainly bad news for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which may lose Patidar votes, the backbone of the saffron party since 1995 when it won its first election in the state. Huge gatherings at Hardik’s rallies testify to the fact.

Further, Hardik’s popularity among young Patels is an additional worry for the BJP in an election where more than half the voters are aged under 40.

Patidars are estimated to account for about 12%, or roughly one-eighth, of Gujarat’s 6 crore-odd population. In 71 of the 182 seats, they form 15% or more of the electorate, which can swing the verdict if enough of them vote in the same direction.

The PAAS leader’s support to the Congress is likely to impact the BJP in at least 25 assembly constituencies where Patels have 20% or more population and decide who wins the seat. These constituencies are (in declining order of Patel community share of population):

Varachha (Surat district)
Leuva Patels: 60%
Sitting BJP MLA Kumar Kanani, who had defeated Dhirubhai Gajera of the Congress, by 20,359 votes in the 2012 assembly elections, will take up the challenge once again. This seat located in Surat district came into existance after 2008 delimitation.
The Patels here – majority of whom have migrated from Saurashtra – are into the business of diamond cutting and polishing.

Kamrej (Surat)
Leuva Patels: 51%

The BJP won this seat continuously since 2002. The saffron party’s Prafulbhai Pansheriya defeated Bhagirathbhai Pithavdiwala of the Congress by a huge margin of 61,371 votes in the 2012 elections. It is a predominantly middle class area.

Unjha (Mehsana)
Kadva Patels: 42%
The constituency has not elected a Congress MLA since 1995. Narayanbhai Patel of the BJP has been representating the area in the Gujarat Assembly for the past five terms. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s birthplace Vadnagar is in this constituency.
Mehsana district is considered to be the strong hold of Hardik Patel.

Gondal (Rajkot)
Leuva Patels: 41%
The seat keeps changing guard. It elected Chandubhai Vaghasiya of the Congress in 2007, while BJP’s Jayrajsinh Jadeja won the seat in 2012.

Tankara (Morbi district)
Kadva Patels: 36%
Congress won this assembly segment only twice in 1967 and 1985 elections. But since 1990, the BJP has been winning the seat. Even in the 20114 bypoll, when sitting MLA Mohan Kundariya, who is now MoS Agriculture, vacated the seat after winning Lok Sabha election, the seat again went to the saffron party and Bavanjibhai Metaliya registered an impressive victory.

Jetpur (Rajkot district)
Leuva Patels: 33%
Jasuben Korat of the BJP won the seat in 2007. But the electorates gave a chance to Jayesh Radadiya of the Congress in 2012. After defecting the Congress, Jayesh once again won the bypoll in 2013 from this seat in 2013 on a BJP ticket with a huge margin of almost 53,000 votes.
There was a massive protest in the area during the Patidar agitation led by Hardik. Strong anti-incumbency and discontent against the BJP among Patels may damage the saffron party’s prospect in the upcoming elections in this constituency.

Surat Uttar (north)
Leuva Patels: 32%
The BJP has been winning this seat since 1990. It is dyeing hub of the Surat textile industry. The Patels here are not united. There is regional factionalism between those who belong to Surat and those who have migrated from Saurashtra.
There is a strong anti-incumbancy against the BJP in the area because “non performance” of the party. Air pollution is one of the major issues of the area.

Vijapur (Mehsana district)
Kadva Patels: 31%
While BJP’s Kantibhai Patel won the seat in 2007, but Congress’ Prahladbhai Patel defeated him with a small margin of 8,759 votes in the next assembly polls.The two parties have won the seat four times each since 1980.
In addition to Patels, the constituency also has a strong concentration of Thakors. In majority of the seats in Mehsana district, Patels and Thakors have strong presence.

Surat Pashchim (west)
Leuva Patels: 29%
The BJP has been registering victory here since 1990. In 2012, its candidate Kishore Vankawala won with a margin of over 69,000, among the highest in the state. Vankawala died in 2013.

Visnagar (Mehsana district)
Kadva Patels: 29%
It used to be the bastion of the BJP. The Congress has not won this seat since 1967. The constituency has been electing a BJP legislator since 1995.
This is the seat where Patidars vent their anger following a massive police crackdown on their quota agitiation in 2015. Sitting MLA Rushikesh Patel was attacked allegedly by Patidar protestors in 2016. His office was attacked in 2015 and Hardik Patel was recently granted bail in connection with the case.

Karanj (Surat district)
Leuva Patels: 29%

It is urban constituency created after delimitation in 2008. BJP’s Janakbhai Kachhadiya won the seat by more than 49,000 votes in 2012. The sitting MLA recently had to face protests by Patidars when he was conducting a door-to-door campaign here.

Manavadar (Junagadh district)
Kadva Patels: 26%
Congress’ Jawaharbhai Chavda, an influential Ahir leader, has been winning the seat for the two consecutive elections (2007 and 2012). He won with a narrow margin of 4400 votes in 2012, perhaps helped partly by the Keshubhai Patel’s Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) candidate who got close to 11,000 votes.

Becharaji (Mehsana district)
Kadva Patels: 25%
The constituency, known for the ancient temple of Bahuchara Mata – goddess of chastity and fertility and an incarnation of Shakti, has a strong presence of Patels and Thakors. BJP’s Rajnikant Patel defeated his Congress rival, Rajendrasinh Darbar, a Kshatriya, by 18000 votes in the 2012 assembly elections.

Mehsana (Mehsana district)
Kadva Patels: 25%
The Congress won the seats six times (in 1962 and from 1972 to 1985). But since 1990, the BJP has been winning this seat. At present, Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel has been representing the consitutency in the 182 member house of the state.
A hub of the dairy cooperative movement, it is a heavily Patidar dominated constituency with a significant proportion of Thakors as well.

Morbi (Morbi district)
Kadva Patels: 25%
The BJP has been winning the seat seat since 1990. It is known for its ceramic industry. It was the hub of the anti-reservation protests of 1980s and the 2015 Patidar protests as well.
Industrilists Patidars here say they do not vote for the BJP by “choice”, it is their “compulsion”. They cannot afford going against the ruling party because of the “fear politics” that rules the roost. They fear if they are identified and Congress loses the state elections, the government may launch a crackdown on their idustry through NGT and other tax bodies.

They say they will wait and watch. They will see the entire list of the contestants and if they feel that their are chances of the grandold party to grab the power, they will go in its favour.

Dhari (Amreli district)
Leuva Patels: 24%
Dhari is located in Patidars’ heartland of Saurashtra’. The Congress lost it in 1970s when Patels moved towards the Janata Party. It remained a Janata stronghold till 1990. The BJP won the seat in 1998, 2002 and 2007. In 2012, GPP of former Gujarat Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel won the seat with a narrow margin, the BJP came third.

Mansa (Gandhinagar district)
Kadva Patels: 24%
The seat came into existence after 2008 delimitation. The native place of BJP President Amit Shah, the constituency. The saffron party won the seat from 1995 to 2007. But in 2012, Congress gain and won by 8000 votes.

Dabhoi (Vadodara district)
Leuva Patels: 23%
The seat has given fair chance (alternate) to the BJP and the Congress since 1995. Interestingly, the seat has not re-elected a party in the past 50 years. The BJP won by 5,000 votes in 2012.
This is the seat of Siddharth Patel, senior Congress leader from the Patidar community and son of former Chief Minister Chimanbhai Patel. He won the seat in 1998 and 2007.

Kadi (Kheda district)
Kadva Patels: 23%
Kadi was Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel’s constituency before it became a reserved seat for Schedule Tribe (ST). The Congress won the seat in 2002 and 2012. It has a significant number of Patels as well as Thakors.
Tribals are also in large numbers here. They are miffed with the BJP over their “neglect”. The Patels here are generally farmers, who are the victims of price rise and lower returns of their crops in the market.

Dhoraji (Rajkot district)
Kadva Patels: 23%
The seat has 21% population of the Leuva Patels as well. It is the turf of BJP strongman Vitthal Radadiya. He first won the seat on a BJP ticket in 1990 and was unbeaten as a Congress candidate till 2012.
He defected to BJP in 2013 and is the BJP MP from Porbandar. Among BJP leaders, Radadiya has been the most vicious in his attacks on Hardik Patel. Besides being a Patidar-dominated seat, it also has a sizable proportion of Muslim voters at around 19%.

Kalavad (Jamnagar district)
Leuva Patels: 23%
This seat is reserved for a member of the Scheduled Caste. The last time this seat elected a Congress MLA was in 1972. Since then it has been defeating the party even in its waves under Madhavsinh Solanki in 1980 and 1985.
The seat represents the decisive shift of Patels away from the Congress. The seat has sent prominent BJP leaders to the Vidhan Sabha: Keshubhai Patel in 1985, RC Faldu in 1998, 2002 and 2007.
Raghavji Patel, BJP MLA from the seat in 1990 and 1995, had moved to the Congress but he returned to BJP in September this year.

Lathi (Amreli district)
Leuva Patels: 22%
The BJP won this seat from 1995 to 2007. Congress grabbed it in 2012 mainly because GPP split BJP votes. But Congress MLA Bavkubhai Undhad defected to BJP and was re-elected in a by-election in 2014. However, his victory margin was just 2600 votes.

Amreli (Amreli district)
Leuva Patels: 21%
The seat has also given chances to Congress and the BJP but the grandold party had not won the constituency from 1967 until 2002, when Paresh Dhanani scored a surprise victory over senior BJP leader Parshottam Rupala, who was then a three time sitting MLA from here.
Dhanani is a prominent Patidar face of the Congress. BJP's Dilip Sanghani, four time Lok Sabha MP from Amreli, has also represented the seat thrice. Interestingly, this was a BJP bastion but the party’s hold weakened under Modi’s rule.

Lunawada (Mahisagar district)
Leuva Patels: 20%
The Congress has been winning the seat for two consecutive terms (2207 and 2012), but these have been a tightly fought contest. Congress’ Heerabhai Patel won by just 84 votes in 2007 and a little under 4000 in 2012. It also has a significant Kshatriya population.

Himmatnagar (Sabarkantha district)

Kadva Patels: 20%

The Congress won this seat in 2012 with Rajendrasinh Chavda defeating senior minister Praful Patel. But Chavda defected to BJP and won the bypoll in 2014, albeit with a narrow a margin of 2500 votes. The seat has a significant number of Thakor voters as well. Chavda is a Thakor.

Constituency data on share of Patel population is based on reports in The Indian Express and Catch News.