Elections 2024: How Things Have Changed in a Week!

Polling for the second phase of ongoing Lok Sabha elections will be held today (April 26) in 88 seats spread across 13 states. The BJP and its allies hold the lion’s share of these seats, barring the sole southern state of Kerala, where it had failed to open its account in 2019.

What is notable is the sudden change in pitch and content of the BJP’s campaign, led by the Prime Minister himself. From the usual mix of ‘development’, ‘surging economy’ and government schemes, with various local and topical issues thrown in, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has changed tack and gone into attacking Congress for its so-called Muslim appeasement, using language and imagery that has prompted many Opposition parties to file complaints with the Election Commission alleging violation of the election laws. The PM and other leaders of BJP, however, are continuing with this strategy. Why this change?

Phase 1 Was Disappointing for BJP/NDA

In the first phase of polling held in 102 seats across 21 states, the ruling party appears to have sensed what was being reported across the board – that there was no ‘Modi wave’ or ‘Modi magic’ comparable to previous elections in 2014 and 2019. A host of economic issues, primarily, unemployment and price rise, appear to have dented the high-voltage BJP campaign.

Moreover, the slogan of “Ab ki baar, 400 paar” (this time, more than 400 seats) drummed up by the BJP propaganda machine, had caused widespread uneasiness – were they keeping this target in order to get a big enough majority to change the Constitution? All this tied in with the arrests of chief ministers of two states (Jharkhand and Delhi), both belonging to the Opposition INDIA bloc, and continuing raids and action against Opposition leaders by Central government agencies. All this added up to a growing image of  BJP as an arrogant party, tending toward riding roughshod over the people’s aspirations.

The disillusionment of people from BJP and its main leader, Prime Minister Modi, appears to be confirmed by the fall in voter turnout, from around 70% in the previous election, to about 65% in the ongoing one. Some analysts have shown that the decline in voter turnout is more in seats held by BJP. What this means is that people are no longer believing all that BJP and its leaders are saying in the campaign.

These developments have, perhaps, led BJP to conclude that it needs some more potent weaponry to win this election, and to achieve its target of 400+ seats.

Phase 2 Seats Were Dominated by BJP in 2019

Initially, the Election Commission had announced that 89 seats would go to polls today, in Phase 2. But Betul in Madhya Pradesh was shifted to Phase 3 after the death of a candidate. Out of the remaining 88, five seats in Assam and one in Jammu & Kashmir are constituencies freshly delimited and hence cannot be compared with 2019. That leaves 82 seats. Of these, one seat in Manipur is being covered only partially, the rest having voted in Phase 1.

Out of the 81 remaining seats, BJP and its allies held 55 seats while the INDIA bloc held 23. But the INDIA bloc seats tally includes 20 seats straight from Kerala (19 Congress-led United Democratic Front and one seat for Left Democratic Front). The remaining three seats held by the INDIA bloc are: one in Bihar and two in Karnataka.

The BJP and its allies had won four seats in Bihar; all three in Chhattisgarh; 11 out of 14 in Karnataka and one Independent, who has now joined BJP and she is re-contesting from Mandya; all six in Madhya Pradesh; seven out of eight in Maharashtra, with the Independent from Amravati now re-contesting as BJP candidate; all 13 seats in Rajasthan; the sole seat from Tripura; seven out of eight seats in Uttar Pradesh and all three seats in West Bengal.

By a rough estimation, at least 20 of the 81 seats have Muslim concentration, mostly in Kerala but also in UP, Bihar and Bengal. So, the shift in campaign to targeting minorities has some immediate relevance.

But the bigger picture should not be lost sight of – the ‘appeasement’ rhetoric and the barely veiled anti-minority aggression, have long been the BJP’s weapons of choice. Combined with the early consecration of Ram Mandir, the noise about Uniform Civil Code, and other hyped-up issues like ‘love jihad’, infiltration, population advantage, jingoism, etc. this incendiary plank of election campaigning has always been used, sometimes secondarily, sometimes primarily.

Communal Ideas Unlikely to Work

The mainstream media, and many commentators, would have us believe that this strategy of BJP will lead to polarisation of the people along religious lines and aggravate the toxic division that has been cultivated deliberately for political ends. Undoubtedly, this danger looms. But, unlike earlier times, there is palpable disillusionment with this ploy among common people. The growing inequalities in the country, the rising caste divisions, the distress caused by economic mismanagement that favours the rich in reality, and the increasingly clear failure of the BJP government to deliver on various promises (“2 crore jobs”, “controlling price rise”, etc.) and the relentless erosion of democratic rights, as enshrined in the Constitution, have out- weighed any sympathy that could be generated by the espousal of Hindutva causes, or claims of guarding sectarian interests.

There does not appear to be any accretion of support toward BJP due to the much-heralded Ram Temple consecration ceremony, with the Prime Minister himself conducting the ceremonies. According to reports and surveys, the Temple issue is not of any great significance in determining voting choices. Of course, this could also mean that the BJP will try to up the ante and opt for even more divisive tactics. But the chances are that people will not be too happy to see this.

Be that as it may, safeguarding constitutional principles and preserving the unity of people should become one of the important duties of the Opposition everywhere in the country.