COVID-19: Bihar’s Flood of Cases and Overflowing Rivers

Bihar on July 28 has 43,591 confirmed COVID-19 cases, an increase of 33,342 cases from July 1, when the state tally stood at  10,249. While the political temperatures are rising with the debate on when the Assembly elections due in a few months should be held, the state is also being battered by floods.

The floods have been severe and have inundated many districts affection a million lives. And with a government which has not had much to show in the past few years busy working on its return to power, it has been left to the Opposition to highlight the consequences of holding elections at a time when the pandemic rages on.

Bihar, with close to 3% of the cases in the country, is much less than the Maharashtra (25% or 383,723 cases), or Tamil Nadu (15% or 220,716 cases), but if the sudden surge in the number of cases witnessed in the past few weeks is anything to go by, the state should be overtaking Gujarat with almost 4% cases or about 57,000 very soon. The surge in cases prompted even the Centre to send a three-member delegation headed by Health Ministry official Lav Agarwal to Bihar to get a first-hand account of the coronavirus pandemic.

The districts most affected by the floods, for instance, West Champaran, is also one of the districts most affected by the Coronavirus, with 1,150 cases; so is Muzaffarpur (1,943 cases), as of July 28. The other districts affected are East Champaran (970 cases), Sitamarhi (422), Sheohar (251), Supaul (758), Kishanganj (598), Darbhanga (741), Gopalganj (817), and Khagaria (933). The rivers in the state Baghmati, Burhi Gandak, Kamlabalan, Lalbakeya, Adhwara, Khiroi, Mahananda and Ghaghra are all flowing above the danger level,  compounding an already bad situation with all the state’s resources already stretched.

Apart from these districts, Munger, which had its first 100 confirmed cases on May 3 but continued to show a slow growth trajectory in terms of the number of confirmed cases, has begun to show signs of a hastening of the pace. Siwan, which hit the 100-cases mark only on June 2, has seen the caseload grow quickly, with returning migrants adding to the numbers. Patna, like most state capitals, is a district witnessing a exponential growth in the number of cases.  

A report in Lancet listed districts in Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Telangana as being most vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic. It was based on indicators such as housing, hygiene, and the health system in these states. The flood might have made these districts the most vulnerable.

A defensive government has tried to make light of accusations of gross instances of incompetency, such as untested people being declared COVID-19 positive.

While Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his deputy, the BJP’s Sushil Modi, have been pressing for elections to be held on schedule, the floods have prompted the bye-elections to the one parliamentary seat due soon to be postponed. This is probably an indicator that the Election Commission might be compelled to postpone the Assembly Elections too by a few months, at least till the pandemic is brought under control.

Bihar currently faces many challenges, and a battle at the hustings is the least of them.