Chhattisgarh Polls: Will Ajit Jogi be the Kingmaker?

He came on a wheelchair with his 14-point manifesto written on a stamp paper. The former Chhattisgarh chief minister, who has been out of power for past 15 years, today dreams of becoming the kingmaker in the state assembly elections.

Ajit Jogi, the founder of the regional party, Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), which is famously known as “Jogi Congress”, after splitting with the Congress, looks very strong after forming an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Communist Party of India (CPI), and this has increased the stress of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Congress.

Jogi’s strong hold in districts like Bilaspur, Jangir-Champa and Mungeli has made it tough for both BJP, and the Congress, and a lot of campaigning by both these parties has been done in these areas to influence the voters. However, according to the 2013 results, available with the Election Commission of India (ECI), the ruling BJP registered its win from eight seats, the Congress won on six, while the BSP had settled with just one seat out of the 15 Vidhan Sabha seats falling in these three districts. It may also be mentioned that there was not much difference in the margin by which the BJP won the last assembly elections in the state.

An informal conversation with Jogi, before he released his manifesto, suggested that the JCC Chief is hopeful of a hung assembly in the state like it was in Karnataka earlier this year. In that case, his party will play a crucial role in forming the government. He, however, has been claiming in public that his party will form the government in the state, but that does not looks possible.

The buzz in the political and bureaucratic circles in Chhattisgarh is that Jogi is BJP’s prop to stop the Congress from getting support from the Satnami community, and also from the tribals, who are facing problems with MSP, land and forest rights. A few days ago, Congress’s Chhattisgarh in-charge P L Punia also said that Jogi is a BJP man, and the alliance with the BSP has been done to help BJP, as there is a very strong anti-incumbency factor against Chief Minister Raman Singh.

According to Raipur-based political observer Ashok Tomar, Ajit Jogi is the deciding factor in this elections because he is liked by the tribals of the state, and he connects with them easily. “The factor that will help Jogi is that he is accessible to all, and that too very easily. He is a very down to earth leader, and he goes to the ground very often, speaks to the people in their own language, listens to their problems, and does whatever he can do,” Tomar says.

Tomar further says that another factor that will help Jogi to regain his lost political ground in Chhattisgarh is the issue of MSP of paddy. “Although Congress has also promised the same MSP in its manifesto, but manifesto on stamp paper will help the Jogi because villagers and tribals get swayed away with these kind of stunts,” he explains.

Ankur Sharma, a very close associate of Ajit Jogi says that the former CM has been working hard since the last three years to regain his political ground in the state, and will dent the Congress as much as possible in these elections.

“He helped a BJP worker financially for the treatment of his child in Marwahi. He helped a Congress worker by getting his sister married in Kota, and there are many other jobs done by him very strategically to break the vote bank of both the parties, and this will definitely show results,” he says, adding that instead of spending on Social Media platforms like other parties, Ajit Jogi has invested his time on the field with the tribals.

Sharma further adds that Ajit Jogi has clearly instructed his son Amit and his wife to spend as much as time on the ground listening to the issues faced by the public, and trying to get a sense of what actually public wants from the government.

“The manifesto by the Jogi Congress was the outcome of time spent on the ground by the party members,” he maintained.

A former IAS officer of the Madhya Pradesh cadre, who was also Jogi's batchmate, says that Jogi had political ambitions since his early days in the bureaucracy, and he planned it very well. “First, he became the blue-eyed boy of Congress, while being the Indore collector, and then he entered the politics. There has been no stopping for him ever since then,” he said.

Jogi's very close friend further told this reporter that Jogi was shattered after splitting with the Congress, and he had to start from scratch to build his empire again. In an off the record conversation with Newsclick this former IAS officer said that Ajit Jogi also knows that he is not going to get good results on all the seats he is contesting from.

“He (Ajit) became very confident after seeing what happened in Karnataka, and ever since then, he is working with double energy because he knows his strong areas where he can prove his prowess, and can emerge as a kingmaker in case of a hung assembly,” he said, adding that he has done a lot of research and homework before announcing his alliance with BSP and CPI. He very well knows that this is the last time for him, and if he fails, his game is over, said the IAS officer.

“Ajit is also working hard because he wants to settle his son's feet into politics. This is do or die situation for him, and this is the reason he has played his cards very strategically. In case of a hung assembly, he will go with the party which will give him better options, and as per the present conditions, it looks like he will go with the BJP,” he told Newsclick.