BJP's Communal Election Arithmetic

The first phase of elections are over with 111 seats going to polls on 7th and 10th. The BJP, which has a thin presence in these seats, now hopes to pick up a substantial number. Its main calculation is that its Modi plank, buoyed up by unprecedented media advertisements including the Internet, a paid social media campaign and splashing Modi all over the country's billboards has created a Modi “wave”. While the high-ground is “Modi means development”, the campaign on the ground has been one of spreading vicious communal poison -- targeting Muslims for danger to “our” women to beef eating – and creating local caste alliances.

Nothing is more shameful in this campaign than what Amit Shah has done, which finally the Election Commission has stopped. In his every meeting in the riot-hit areas of western UP, Shah had the same message – this is the time for revenge, vote BJP. His speech – framed as it was by other Jat “leaders” before him, was clear. Riots in western UP are only because Muslims threaten “our” women. This has been the BJP's (and its earlier avatar the Jan Sangh's) riot refrain for the last 60 years. It is with this emotive slogan that riots are and have been created. It does not matter whether there is truth in this or not; in this case there was none. But that does not matter. Any clash between a Muslim and a Hindu boy would get a communal colour and then the stories would be spun to justify riots. And stories were always the same – frame all clashes or riots as originating in threats to “our” women.

Once this story is framed, comes the next – as riots are “just”, all FIR's and charges should be dropped. And this was the repeated demand of the caste sabhas including the Jat sabhas where Amit Shah spoke. Whether it was Bijnor or in Shamli (Newsclick has posted some of the video footage), the local BJP leaders wanted no action to be taken by the police for those who had participated in the riots. Supposedly, all of these were “false cases”, and the result of the SP government being biased in favour of the Muslims.

That the SP had failed to stop the riots and was forced to take action against rioters, as any government has to, does not enter the discourse. It is this that Amit Shah was responding: vote for revenge, vote for BJP and you will get rid of 2 governments at one go. This will solve your “false” cases problem as there will be no SP government after the BJP takes power at the centre. There is also the tirade against “butcherkhana's” and beggars becoming billionaires out of killing our sacred cows; against Muslims on other issues. All in all, a sick performance of a sick man with a sick ideology.

We may be able to stop one Amit Shah (or a stupid Azam Khan) for giving a communal colour to the elections. By not preventing riots from taking place and confronting the BJP's politics of hate, the SP has allowed grass-root poisoning of the relations between the communities in UP. Riots create long lasting wounds – and they can set new communal dynamics in motion for the future. This is what BJP is banking on. This is the Gujarat “dividend”, the major riot in 2002 came after a long spell of smaller riots that went on for decades and ghettoised the Muslims in Gujarat. This is how BJP is reworking its political arithmetic in UP and Bihar.

Ayodhya was not about a Ram temple, it was about demolition of the Babri Masjid: raze to the ground a mosque as a symbol of changing power. The BJP now finds talking about Ram Temple is not enough in UP. It needs more tinder to add to the communal fires. That is why BJP is falling back on its time tested “our women” in danger and the absurd “love jihad” motif.

The BJP calculates an outright anti-Muslim plank with local caste alliances will change its fortune in North India, particularly UP. In post Aoydhya UP, BJP had become the number one force. Subsequently, it dwindled, competing with the Congress for the 4th place. It now feels that with the riots and its communal appeal, it can again become the number one force in UP.

The Indian people have always voted with intelligence, even when we sometimes disagree with the results. It remains to be seen whether it will give into the Modi wave that BJP is stoking with its communal campaign or reject such attempts as it has done in the past.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick