Assam Polls: Himanta of 2026 Not as Strong as in 2021

Kolkata: Judging by the evolving political situation in Assam where Assembly elections are due between March-end and the second week of April, the relevant questions that arise are:  Is there a possibility of the Congress-led coalition, which includes regional outfits and the Left parties, altering the syntax of Assam politics?

Second, is the resource-rich and organisationally strong ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), in the same commanding position as it was in 2021?

Third, does BJP’s “strong” leader and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma enjoy the same clout as he did while stewarding the party in the 2021 Assembly elections?

The fourth question, which is a supplementary from the first one is whether Gaurav Gogoi, who heads the Pradesh Congress Committee and is currently the Deputy Leader of Opposition or LoP in Lok Sabha, will be the “unannounced” Chief Minister-face of the Congress-led coalition?

These questions do suggest that the forthcoming elections for the 126-member House may well be different from those held in 2021 in that there may be surprises, according political and civil society observers who include, among others, social scientist Bhupen Sarmah, who is a former director of Guwahati-based OKD Institute of Social Change and Development (OKD stands for Omiya Kumar Das).

The BJP is already going all-out to defend the NDA rule for the second time; Prime Minister Narendra Modi has, as usual, turned project inauguration/launch an occasion for election campaign and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already held several meetings during his two visits.

On Sunday, March 8, Sarma announced direct benefit transfer (DBT) of Rs 9,000 each to approximately 40 lakh families under the Orunodoi scheme. This instalment of DBT or cash, which would entail an outgo of Rs 3,600 crore, includes Orunodoi payments for January-April and includes the Bihu festival bonus.

What is significant is that the Chief Minister has assured the beneficiaries – women and poor families – that the transfer is to be competed on one day, on March 10 (Orunodoi is in force since October 2, 2020).

But, despite this gesture and campaigns by the Modi-Shah duo, doubts are being expressed by Assam politics watchers because of the Chief Minister’s administrative weaknesses, his penchant for belittling Muslims and the Opposition parties, his well-known tactics of causing defections and his practice of throwing all norms to the winds when it comes to seeking support for electoral gains.

Sarma’s crude manner of targeting ‘Miya Muslims’ (a reference to illegal immigrants from Bangladesh) has generated widespread controversy in large areas with concentration of the Muslims community (the state’s electorate includes 36% Muslims]. So much so that the BJP high command is understood to have reprimanded him for his reckless targeting of ‘Miya-Muslims’.

On March 5, the last date for filing nominations for Rajya Sabha polls, Sarma managed to enlist the support of three MLAs of the Badruddin Ajmal-led All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) for the third Upper House seat. BJP, on its own, could win two seats. This move by Sarma has angered sections of the majority Hindu community electorate, whose support is crucial for BJP.

Also, Sarma’s failure to bring to justice the persons responsible for the death under dubious circumstance of music icon Zubin Garg in Singapore in September last, along with widespread allegations about land deals by Sarma’s family members, have weakened his position politically.

Of late, there is a new allegation. On Thursday, March 5, the Assam state committee of Democratic Youth Federation of India (DYFI) alleged that the state government was undermining the report of a judicial panel that probed the Assam Public Service Commission ‘cash for jobs’ scam. The action taken report (ATR) was tabled in the Assembly recently, nearly three years after the report of the probe panel headed by Justice Biplab Kumar Sarma was made public.

The DYFI state secretary Nirankush Nath has contended that ATR exposed the Himanta ministry’s double standards in dealing with the ‘scam’. Although the probe panel found evidence of widespread corruption in the recruitment and recommended cancellation of the entire process, yet the government deviated from the recommendation and much softer action was taken – suspension with permissible salary against outright dismissal, Nath has gone on record.

When asked about the change in Sarma’s political standing, Dr Sarmah and CPI-M state secretary Suprakash Talukdar suggested that Sarma in 2026 was “certainly not what he was in 2021”; no doubt, today he is somewhat on a weak wicket.

Perhaps, Sarma has already sensed this and that under Gogoi’s leadership an energised alliance could cause upsets in the ruling coalition’s prospect. Therefore, he is trying hard to weaken the Opposition by engineering defections. This also explains the delay in announcing the names of NDA candidates, who are to be from BJP, Asom Gana Parishad and a few more regional parties.

Meanwhile, Gogoi announced on Friday, March 6, that the Congress would contest the forthcoming elections in association with Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI-M and All-Party Hill Leaders’ Conference. For the Congress, the fly in the ointment is the Raijor Dal of Akhil Gogoi, whose support base is widely acknowledged but queering the pitch is Akhil’s insistence on the number of seats that the Congress finds disproportionate to its strength.

Speculation is rife that Chief Minister Sarma is eyeing  Raijor Dal and Akhil may succumb to his overtures. But Raijor Dal’s working president Romen Borthakur told NewsClick that he was still optimistic that the impasse would be resolved.

The alliance partners acknowledge that Gaurav Gogoi has a clean image; he is decent even if he differs. They also accept that he has been able to energise the party workers, for whom the Wayanad Lok Sabha member Priyanka Gandhi’s recent visit also acted as a morale booster. Gaurav Gogoi represents Jorhat in Lok Sabha and it is certain that the Congress high command would field him from the Jorhat Assembly segment.

In keeping with the Congress practice, Gaurav Gogoi won’t be officially declared as the Opposition’s CM face. But, indications are that he will be the “unannounced CM face”, at least that is the reading of political watchers, who also feel that there will be complications if Akhil Gogoi’s party goes on its own or is wooed by Sarma. Also, the Congress does not have money power. Dr Sarmah agrees that’s a weakness.    

The writer is a senior freelance journalist based in Kolkata.