Elections 2019: How Will Political Parties Fare in Crucial Western UP?

The eight parliamentary constituencies of Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, Meerut, Bagpat, Ghaziabad, Bijnor and Gautam Buddh Nagar are going to polls on April 11, but tasting the win in these polls seems like a thorny walk for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) arithmetically.

After travelling extensively in the sugar bowl of Uttar Pradesh, team Newsclick has come up with an analysis for the hot seats.

Kairana

The Kairana Lok Sabha constituency which was won by the joint candidate of Congress, the Samajwadi Party (SP), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in the 2018 bypolls after the demise of sitting lawmaker Hukum Singh, is set to see a high pitched battle between the Congress and the Mahagathbandhan (alliance), as the BJP seems to be losing the ground after it denied a ticket to Mriganka Singh who lost the bypolls by a whisker.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Pradeep Chaudhary, Congress has fielded Harendra Malik and Tabassum Hassan is the candidate of Mahagathbandhan (SP, BSP, RLD).

According to Western UP-based senior scribe Narendra Kumar, the BJP supporters/cadre are highly upset with the party after a ticket was given to Pradeep Chaudhary instead of Mriganka Singh. She has recently lost of her father, Hukum Singh, who was also the tallest BJP leader in the area.

"There are very high chances that the supporters of Mriganka Singh or the traditional voters of BJP might lend their support to the Congress or to Tabassum. There is great anti-incumbency against Tabassum, as she could not live up to the expectations of the public. The mandate can go in the favour of Congress. BJP, however, looks weak," he said.

Another noteworthy factor is the lost enthusiasm of Mriganka Singh, as she has not been actively campaigning for the party since the announcement of the candidature of Chaudhury. However, she has called herself a committed party worker.

Also read: Western Uttar Pradesh: Fearing Farmers’ Wrath, BJP Resorts to DJs and Dance

Muzaffarnagar

The battle of Muzaffarnagar will be the most keenly watched fight, as two big Jat leaders will be seen challenging each other in this constituency.

The city, which was torn in the deadliest communal riots of 2013, elected BJP’s Sanjiv Balyan in 2014, as the atmosphere was highly polarised at that time. This time, with Congress not fielding any candidate, the fight is between RLD’s Chaudhary Ajit Singh who is the son of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh and Balyan again.

Both the leaders are strong Jat leaders, but the arithmatic suggests that the masses will be going with Ajit Singh.

Singh has got the sympathy factor with himself, as Chaudhary Charan Singh had fought from this seat in 1971, but had tasted defeat. The Jats of the region would want to bid a good farewell to Singh, as he has been saying that this will be the last election he’ll contest. Also, Singh has got a good support of the Muslims, Jatavs and backward Hindu castes, while the Muslims of the area do not still accept Balyan as their leader, owing to his alleged role in the Muzaffarnagar riots.

As per the local media, Muzaffarnagar has only around two lakh Jats while the majority population consists of Muslims and other small Hindu castes.

Saharanpur

Saharanpur is the seat from where the political parties have attempted polarisation. The PM, in his speech, a few days ago, launched the salvo against Congress Candidate Imran Masood by saying that “Yaha to Boti Boti wale saahab rehte hai”, taking a reference from Masood’s 2014 statement. Earlier, Imran Masood was also termed as the son-in-law of terrorist Massod Azhar.

With more than 42% population being Muslim, Saharanpur is one of the most highly polarised constituency, which is set to see a triangular battle between Congress’s Imran Masood, BJP’s sitting MP Raghav Lakhanpal and alliance’s Haji Fazlur Rehman, a meat trader.

In 2014, Raghav Lakhanpal had defeated Imran Masood by 65,000 votes. BJP had 39% vote share, followed by Congress with 34%, Bahujan Samaj Party with 19% and the Samajwadi Party with 4%.

This time, there's a likelihood of the Congress cutting into the alliance's vote bank. The result will be based on division or consolidation of the Muslim votes.

Meerut

This constituency is considered important for sending out political messages. It has been BJP's stronghold for the past two decades.

The BJP has shown faith in Rajendra Agrawal, who represents the constituency in Parliament, and has fielded him once again against Harendra Agrawal of the Congress and Haji Yaqoob Quraishi of the Opposition alliance.

Rajendra Agrawal has been elected MP for the past two consecutive terms, and is facing anti-incumbency. In addition to this, Dalits – who are numerically significant there – and a section of the 'upper caste' communities are already extremely unhappy with the government because of its "faulty policies".

Meerut had witnessed a violent protest staged by Dalits in the wake of the dilution of the SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Sensing troubles and loss of a section of Dalit votes, the Centre came up with an amended law restoring previous provisions of the anti-atrocities law.

This angered the 'upper caste' communities who want implementation of the apex court guidelines that had barred the police from directly arresting a person booked under the SC/ST Act without investigation.

Meerut district is a part of the sugarcane belt of the state and cane farmers here are unhappy with the government over the delay in payments and low prices. The BJP – in the previous election – had promised that cane farmers will get their payment from sugar mills within 15 days. But the saffron party, say the farmers, has failed to walk the talk.

Therefore, this election is not a cakewalk for the BJP candidate. The fight between the BJP and Congress candidates may strengthen the prospects of the alliance candidate.

Bagging 5,32,981 votes, BJP's Agrawal had emerged victorious in the 2014 polls. BSP's Mohammad Shahid Akhlaq came second by securing 3,00,665 votes. SP's Shahid Manzoor had got 2,11,759 votes to stand at the third position. Congress’s performance was poor. Its candidate Naghma, an actor-turned-politician, could get only 42,911 votes.

After Naghma declined the offer to contest from here, the Congress gave Advocate OP Sharma its ticket, but soon switched to

Harendra Agrawal, who is the son of former Chief Minister Babu Banarsi Das.

Both Agrawals belong to the Vaishya community, and will cause a split in the 'upper caste' votes. If it happens, the SP-BSP-RLD alliance will have a direct advantage.

Also read: Elections 2019: BJP to Lose Rajput Community’s Support in Western UP?