Elections 2019: BJP Hopes to Balance Loss of Patel Votes as OBC Cong MLAs Defect

A day ahead of the Congress Working Committee (CWC) meeting in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on March 12, that met in the state after 58 years, Vallabhbhai Dharaviya, the Congress MLA from Jamnagar Rural constituency, resigned from the party and joined Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Dharaviya would be the fifth Congress MLA to join BJP adding to one Congress MLA disqualified, reducing the party’s tally to 71 from 77 in the Assembly.  

The series of defections began in July last year when Kuvarji Bavaliya, MLA of Jasdan, Rajkot district, and then working President of the Gujarat Pradesh Congress Committee (GPCC) resigned from Congress. Hours after quitting, Bavaliya joined BJP and was inducted into the Vijay Rupani cabinet with three portfolios – water supply, animal husbandry and rural housing.

In February this year, Asha Patel, Congress MLA from Unjha, Mehsana district, quit the party to join BJP. Jawahar Chavda, Congress MLA from Manavadar constituency, Porbandar district resigned on March 8 and joined the cabinet on March 9. Soon after the announcement of Chavda, Parsottam Sabariya, MLA from Dhrangadra, Surendranagar district also quit Congress to join BJP.

All the five Congress MLAs have cited “infighting among Congress party” as a reason for quitting.

Noticeably, four of the five defecting MLAs – Kuvarji Bavaliya, Jawahar Chavda, Parsottam Sabariya and Vallabhbhai Dharaviya -- are MLAs from Saurashtra region of Gujarat and belong to the OBC (Other Backward Classes) communities.

Patels form the second largest vote bank in Gujarat and have been loyal to BJP for three decades, while the OBCs, primarily the Koli community, who account for about 20% of votes to form the largest electoral population as a community, have been traditionally a Congress vote bank.

In Saurashtra, primarily an agrarian region, the farmers mostly belong to the Patidar and Koli communities. The region has 47 Assembly seats and has been a BJP stronghold since 1995. However, owing to water scarcity and agrarian crisis in the arid region, as also the impact of the Patidar quota stir of 2015 led by Hardik Patel, Congress had won 28 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections, reducing the BJP seats to 19 from 30 that it won in 2012. Out of 26 Lok Sabha seats, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Amreli, Surendranagar and Porbandar seats fall in this region.

With five OBC MLAs in its fold, the BJP is hoping that the community will switch loyalty ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

Congress MLA, Bhagabhai Barad from Talala constituency, who was disqualified on March 5 by speaker Rajendra Tiwary after being convicted in illegal mining case, is also an MLA from the Saurashtra region.

Barad had won from Talala Assembly seat in 2017 and was accused in an illegal mining case. On March 1, a magisterial court in Sutrapada held him guilty of illegally mining 2,83,525 tonnes of limestone worth Rs 2.83 crore from gauchar (pastoral) land of Sutrapada town of Gir Somnath district. However, the court granted him bail the same day to allow him to appeal against the verdict. Later, Barad challenged the court’s decision and the Election Commission’s decision to hold a bypoll in Talala in Veraval sessions court.

Noticeably, first-time MLA Parsottam Sabariya, who joined BJP, was arrested in October last year in connection with an irrigation scam in Morbi district and was later granted bail by the Gujarat High Court in February 2019. The state government sanctioned Rs 20.31 crore for around 334 works under the minor irrigation scheme in Morbi. Reportedly irregularity of Rs 1.12 crore was reported in 46 works. Allegedly, Sabariya had demanded Rs 40 lakh from people for not raising the issue of the irrigation scam in the Assembly or seek investigation.

“I am not under pressure to join BJP. I am making the switch to develop my constituency,” Sabariya told the media.

Sabariya belongs to the Koli community that dominates the Dhrangadra Assembly seat and the Surendranagar Lok Sabha constituency.

A five-time MLA Kuvarji Bavaliya, who joined BJP, is also a prominent Koli leader of Rajkot region where Kolis constitute 30% of the electoral population.

IN February this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s addressed a gathering of Kolis in Chotila town in Surendranagar district through a recorded eight-minute video. The gathering was organised to felicitate Bavaliya who had just won the Jasdan bypoll after joining BJP.

“It is unfortunate that the Koli community has been used as a vote bank for so many years,” the PM said.

Jawahar Chavda, GPCC vice president and four-time MLA of Manavadar who joined BJP is a strong leader of the Ahir community, another OBC community that forms the second largest group of voters in Porbandar Lok Sabha seat. He is also the son of Congress veteran Pethalji Chavda and had been reportedly responsible for keeping the Congress party afloat in Porbandar.

Vallabhbhai Dharaviya, MLA from Jamnagar Rural, who is the last Congressman to defect to BJP is a strong leader of the Sathwara OBC community that has significant electoral population in Jamnagar Lok Sabha seat.

Dharaviya, who was with BJP, had switched to Congress ahead of the 2017 Assembly election and had won on an opposition ticket. With Hardik Patel, who recently joined Congress, likely to contest from Jamnagar Rural, Dharaviya’s comeback into BJP might prove to be crucial for the party. 

 “After the recent air strikes on Pakistan terror camp (February 26) I have realised Modi must be re-elected as PM of this country,” he added.

Asha Patel, Unjha MLA, is the only Congress leader to defect from North Gujarat. Patel was once a close aide of Hardik Patel. Even after the duo fell out, she turned out to be a huge advantage for the Congress. Patel won against five-time MLA Narayan Patel and bagged Unjha, that holds Vadnagar, PM Narendra Modi’s hometown, for Congress first time since 1972. Patel is also the only Patidar leader to join BJP and might help in the Mehsana Lok Sabha seat where BJP is struggling to win back its Patidar vote bank.