Elections 2019: After Five Phases, NDA Tally Half of 2014

With the completion of polling for 51 seats on May 6, people in 424 parliamentary constituencies have voted in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections. Newsclick’s data analytics team has analysed previous Assembly election results and, after factoring in state-wise swings in votes, it appears that the ruling BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is headed for a debacle getting only 124 seats compared with 251 in the 2014 elections. The Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to increase its tally dramatically from just 55 last time to 169 this time.

Besides these two alliances, several other parties or regional alliances which are aligned against the NDA and likely to support the UPA after final results are declared, are also projected to increase their tally. Among them, the strongest showing appears to be that of the Gathbandhan (Alliance) in Uttar Pradesh which will increase its seats from a mere four in 2014 to 37 this time round. Out of the 80 seats in UP, 27 are yet to go to polls and the Gathbandhan’s tally is likely to increase further. The BJP and its allies had won 73 of the 80 seats last time.

Other states in which the BJP-led NDA is facing defeat include Tamil Nadu, where its current alliance partner AIADMK is getting resoundingly defeated with rival DMK alliance (part of UPA) getting as many as 28 of the 38 seats that have completed polling, with polling deferred for one seat.

In the last two phases of polling, significant BJP/NDA strongholds went to polls including 13 seats in Madhya Pradesh, seven seats in Jharkhand and all 25 seats of Rajasthan. However, these projections indicate that the BJP is likely to lose significantly in these states too, ceding 12 seats in Rajasthan, six in Jharkhand and four in MP.

The Left parties are likely to increase their tally from 10 to 19 in these five phases. Other parties gaining seats are YSR Congress in (YSRCP) Andhra Pradesh and Trinamool Congress (AITC) in West Bengal, where BJP may also increase its tally.

The projections take into account the discontent against the Modi government on various significant issues like aggravated farmers’ distress, unemployment, lack of increase in wages, industrial slow down, increase in corruption and the communal ideology of the ruling BJP (and RSS) which has laid siege on minorities and dalits/adivasis, fostering violence against these deprived sections. Swings against the Modi government have been tempered to account for discontent against state govts. run by opposition parties wherever necessary.

The continued slide of NDA as the election process inches across the country indicates that on May 23, the results are likely to throw up a severely depleted NDA, with insufficient numbers to form a government.

[Data analysis by Peeyush Sharma and mapping by Glenissa Pereira]