COVID-19: Tamil Nadu’s Witnesses Reduced Doubling Time, Government Claims Victory for High Recovery Rate and Low Mortality

The Tamil Nadu government continues to claim that the COVID-19 recovery rate, in the state, has been high, the mortality rate has been low, and that it had the highest testing for the novel coronavirus among all the states. Even as the government continues to claim credit and list out its achievements, containment measures have failed miserably, a fact which is proven by the manifold increase in the number of cases. In occasional press meets too, the state’s health minister evades questions about the reasons for its failure.

Despite the mortality rate being low, an increase in the number of people who are below the age of 60, and have succumbed to the infection, has created a sense of apprehension among the public.

The Greater Chennai Corporation (GCC) is a classic case of failure in containment, despite implementing a greater number of total lockdowns. The city remains, and is set to continue being a hotbed of the SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Discharges Outnumber Active Cases

The number of active cases in the state, as of Monday, June 8, was 15,413 with 17,527 discharged patients and 286 deaths. By the same evening, the state had reported 33,229 positive cases of COVID-19. The mortality rate, at 0.86%, was much less than the national average. However, of the total 286 deaths, 126 deaths had happened between May 30 and June 8.

The recovery rate, which was 52%, was also relatively high in comparison with other states, with the number of active cases well below the number of patients discharged from healthcare facilities.

Dr. Sundararaman of the People’s Health Movement said: “The discharge rate is a normal function as more people are expected to recover from the infection. But, regarding the low mortality rate, we must be concerned as we are missing too many deaths during the pandemic”.

Infections among Lower Age Group Helps Recovery Rate

Of the total number of infected people back then, 27,906 belonged to the age group between 13 years and 60 years, an age bracket which is less prone to the virus. A total of 3,558 cases were from those above the age of 60 while 1,765 cases had been found from among those below the age of 12. Infections among people from a relatively lower age group, has come to the rescue of the government. Individuals having lesser or no comorbidities have also helped its cause.

Dr Raveendranath, General Secretary of Doctors Association for Social Equality said that while the mortality rate may be low, “the real concern is the age group of the deceased. Around 50% of the deceased in the state is below 60 years of age. The recovery rate is high because of more infections in the age group below 60 years, but the deaths in the same group reflects the health-related issues that persist within the population.”

Another factor is the higher number of infections itself. As the number of cases increase, the number of patients that are discharged is expected to increase. That is expected given that those from a middle-age group form a large chunk of those that have been.

Chennai, and Failed Containment Measures

The reason for a manifold increase in the number of cases, particularly in Chennai, remains a mystery. The city witnessed a total lockdown when the nationwide lockdown was in place. However, cases have shown no sign of slowing down as the state and city have hit a new-daily high on a regular basis as of late. The GCC had accounted for 23,298 cases, 70% of the state’s total tally.

Various containment measures, including a ban on public transport, cabs, auto rickshaws and loading vehicles, has hardly helped in reducing the number of cases. More than 50% of GCC zones had more than 1,000 cases with Royapettah zone, in the city’s northern region, topping the table with 4,023 cases, as of June 8.

Central Chennai most Affected

The striking aspect is the concentration of the virus in the central region of GCC, an area which is largely residential and free from slum settlements. Of the three regions of the corporation, the central region accounted for 10,354 cases (44.4%), while the northern and southern regions accounted for 8,905 and 3,666 cases respectively.

Anna Nagar, Teynampet and Kodambakkam, zones which are free from slums and resettlement camps, had seen a spike in the number of cases. Four of the five zones in the central region had more than 2,000 cases. The effectiveness of various containment and preventive measures stand exposed when demographic details are looked into.

The Need for Testing

The claim that the state has been performing more tests than any other, has barely helped in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus. Even as a total of 6,07,952 samples and 5,80,768 individuals had been tested as of June 8, there is a need for greater testing. An increase in the number of testing facilities did not reflect in the number of tests conducted.

When the state had 52 testing labs, (on May 7) it had tested 14,195 samples. While the number of labs had increased to 77 (as of June 8), the number of tests conducted was 14,982. The highest number of tests conducted in a single day was on June 4, with 16,447 samples tested at 74 facilities.

“The expert committee set up by the government has recommended a minimum of 10,000 tests in Chennai and 18,000 tests across the state. However, the number of tests remain stagnant despite an increase in the number of cases”, added Dr. Raveendranath.

The government is paying little heed to repeated demands for an increase in testing. The reducing doubling rate in Chennai needs quick attention.