COVID-19: Case Fatality Rate in South Indian States Much Lower Than National Average

As the total number of COVID-19 cases across the country is about to hit 12 lakh, the five south Indian states- Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana- have also been struggling to curtail a spike in the number of cases in the post lockdown period.

Kerala, the state that had managed pretty well in containing the spread of virus during the first and second waves has been witnessing a spike in the third phase with more than six lakh Non-resident Keralites (NRKs) returning home.

Though the number of COVID-19 cases has been increasing, Kerala and Telangana have managed to keep the case fatality rate (CFR) or deaths for every 100 positive cases, low- below 1%. Karnataka has the highest CFR among the south Indian states. Between July 13 and July 20, the state’s case fatality rate jumped from 1.8% to 2.06%, according to data compiled by the state COVID-19 War Room. The CFR in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu has also jumped but, by a thinner margin.

Even then the overall CFR in south Indian states is much less than the national average of 2.5%.

As of Tuesday (July 21) evening, according to Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 13,994 cases have been reported from Kerala including 44 deaths. The case fatality rate in Kerala as per these figures is 0.314%. The total number of COVID-19 positive cases from Telangana is 47,705 with 429 people reported dead as of Tuesday evening. The CFR in case of Telangana stands at -.899%.

Also read: COVID-19: Kerala Gears up to Nip in the Bud the Threat of Community Transmission

Meanwhile, 1,80,643 have tested positive in Tamil Nadu and 2,626 have succumbed to the virus so far. Thus, the CFR in case of Tamil Nadu is 1.453%. As of Tuesday evening, the total number of COVID-19 positive cases from Karnataka is 71,069 and 1,464 people have died with CFR of 2.06%. Andhra Pradesh has 58,668 cases and 758 of this have been died with CFR of 1.29%.

At the same time, a widespread campaign is going on against the Kerala Model of containment strategy and the state’s public healthcare system, which has been praised several times, since the number of cases in the state are surging. The total number of cases which was at 690 on May 21 has reached 13,994 on July 21.

The third wave of infection hit the state as the non-resident Keralites started returning home. So far, more than two lakh Keralites have reached back home from abroad- mostly from Gulf countries. Along with this, more than 4 lakh people have come back from other states as well. More than half of these people were from red zones across the country.

The increase in asymptomatic cases also stands a challenge to Kerala and other states. “More than 60% of cases are asymptomatic,” Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan had said in one of his press conferences.

He had further added that due to increase in number cases, one can’t say that the state’s system has failed to tackle the virus. Along with the increase in number of cases, there are other factors including case fatality rate, case positivity rate, etc., to evaluate COVID-19 management.

The test positivity rate which means the percentage of people who test positive for the virus out of all who have been tested in Kerala is between 1.5% and 2%. While in the case of Telangana, it is 17%. The national average for test positivity rate is 8%.

Also read: Misleading Death Rate: Underestimating the Crisis?