Elections 2019: In Delhi’s 7 Seats, It’s AAP vs BJP

Delhi is actually not one but two cities. One is made up of the working people - industrial workers, unorganised sector labourers, petty shopkeepers and traders, office and shop employees, service providers of all types and manual labourers. They live mostly on the periphery in vast colonies that may or may not be authorised or regularised. They struggle for drinking water and electricity, they travel long distances in public transport or on bicycles for work; they send their children to government schools and throng the creaking public healthcare system. This is the vast ‘underbelly’ of Delhi, invisible to tourists or even to more prosperous residents.

Then there are the aspirational middle and upper classes who live in authorised colonies, work in the huge services sector, send their kids to private schools and colleges, have their own vehicles, use private hospitals and patronise restaurants and multiplexes and numerous malls.This is a high visibility, high decibel section and often mistaken for the whole of Delhi.

In the upcoming battle for the seven Parliamentary seats in Delhi, political battle lines are drawn largely along this divide in the city. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) run state government, though severely limited in its powers because of legal peculiarities, has focused on basic issues like lowering the cost of water and electricity, improving education and healthcare in the public sector, providing better amenities to working people colonies, etc. Not that it has addressed every problem. But it has clearly aligned with the invisible city.

The Divided Metropolis

Back in 2011, out of the estimated population of about 1.7 crore, some 60% used to live on a meagre income of Rs.13,500 or less as per a National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) report of 2011-12. There has been no survey after that. Current population is about 2 crore (voters are 1.43 crore) and 60% of that would be about 1.2 crore (or about 85 lakh voters).

The 6th Economic Census done in 2013 showed that in Delhi, there are about 10.68 lakh workers in the manufacturing and other non-services sectors and about 19.34 lakh employees in the services sector. Since minimum wages in Delhi are currently about Rs.13,000 per month, and all of these 30 lakh workers/employees would be getting that much or less, it seems that the proportions described by the NSSO continued to be valid.

The same report revealed that about 30% of Delhi’s population earned between Rs15,000 to Rs 30,000 per month and just 7% people make up those who earn between Rs 30,000 to Rs 1.2 lakh per month. The income amount would have increased in the past eight years but inflation adjusted income levels are stagnating and these proportions would broadly be the same as in 2011.

Note that services sector doesn’t mean just sales executives and computer programmers. In fact, the bulk of employees in this sector are working in shops and malls, or schools and hospitals, or as maids, security guards, cooks and washermen/press-wallahs etc. Then there are construction workers, rickshaw pullers, auto-drivers and so on.

It is this mass of humanity, struggling at minimum wage levels, living in cramped hovels, fighting for water and electricity, and oppressed by the bureaucracy and police, that the AAP is hoping to get support from.

The BJP and the Congress represent the other part of Delhi. Their vision expressed variously in manifestoes, and in deeds when in power, is of building more flyovers, providing free wi-fi, opening more colleges and preventing the metropolis to be flooded with poor migrants from the hinterland.

At one time, Congress used to straddle both the cities, getting support from both the rich and poor. That era has ended. In the 2015 Assembly elections, Congress ended up with just about 10% of the vote share, its most abysmal performance to date. The BJP has maintained about 33-36% of the vote share on an average, with some ups and downs. Even in the Modi wave of 2014, it managed to get only 33% votes but won all seven seats due to split of votes between the Congress and AAP.

Prospects in 2019

The AAP cannot possibly repeat its unprecedented 54% vote share of 2015 Assembly elections. As past elections have shown, Delhi voters do make a distinction between local body, Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. It is to accommodate this reality that AAP is pushing the full statehood demand which is a Parliamentary issue, requiring changes in laws. BJP and Congress both are on the defensive on this as both have a record of flip-flops on this going back to several decades. AAP is hoping to get the goodwill it created with its work for the poorer sections converted to support for its Lok Sabha candidates.

The BJP is banking on only one thing – Modi. Their campaign centres around his achievements mainly on national security, international prestige etc. – along with various policies and schemes. However, there are some key issues that the BJP will find difficult to explain away. These include two things that had a damaging effect on the trading community of the Capital, which is not small in number. These issues are: sealing of commercial premises that violate Master Plan codes, undertaken under Supreme Court’s direction and the GST roll-out. Both have caused much anger and may lead to erosion of the BJP support.

It is the Congress which might determine the outcome, though it is unlikely to win any seat. If it successfully cuts into the AAP base, BJP will go through easily in all the seats. On the other hand, wherever its candidates are unable to draw the people, AAP will be neck to neck with BJP. Ultimately, it is a close race between BJP and AAP.